No Comey letter. 538 put that as the #1 reason Hillary lost.
The Dems will remember 2016 and campaign harder in battleground states.
The Russian trolls won’t have as much of a impact. Facebook, etc are wise to them, and to a lesser extent so is the American voter.
Tump lied to the rust belt to get their votes. Their factory jobs have not come back (and they can’t). They are angry and disillusioned.
Biden has the best chance, but many others could do it also. I suspect Sanders and Buttigieg are the main two losers. Even tho i am no Harris fan, she could beat trump. Beto, Warren, a good shot. If Beto can bring in Texas, he’s in.
I voted no, based on this simple if speculative reasoning: no one who didn’t like Trump in 2016 will be motivated to turn around and vote for him now, while many people* who were unmotivated to vote (or maybe willing to give him the benefit of the doubt against Hilary) in 2016 will now be motivated by what they’ve seen to vote against him.
*How many? It doesn’t have to be millions. 70,000 in the right states would have done the trick in 2016, and the mid-terms make me confident that at least that many will come through in 2020.
Win by huge margins in CA and NY, lose by a hair in TX, FL, PA, MI, and WI, and the popular vote win with EC loss could be much much bigger. Theoretically.
Job Number One is for Dems to convince one another that they will be voting for the Democratic candidate named “Not Donald Trump,” sorta like the Orlando Sentinel suggested yesterday. Oops, I guess in the interest of fair play that’s the “failing” Orlando Sentinel.
Trump supporters (most Republicans) are one- or two-issue voters: abortion, gun rights
Democrats have too many issues to promote and must also defend themselves from the single issue people. This makes their efforts too dilute to be effective.
Single issue gun votes are maybe 5% of gun owners, and they have voted GOP for quite some time, we still got Obama and Bill Clinton. Trump is no friend to gun owners, anyway. Same with abortion, since on the left you got single issue Choice voters.
I think he’ll win. As soon as the Democrats replace “Not Donald Trump” with a real name on the ballot it’s going to be downhill for them.
Trump has a rock solid base that won’t abandon him under any foreseeable circumstance, and it’s dispersed enough to leverage the electoral map better than the Democratic field is. He’ll fight dirty as hell, relentlessly attacking any opponent with no regard for the truth, and based on what I see on FaceBook, he’ll have an army of followers who are as truth-agnostic as he is. At the end of the election, the politics of division and fear is going to resonate more than anything and anyone the Democrats put forth.
I hope I am proven wrong, but my faith in America and my fellow citizens is certainly lower than it’s ever been.
I don’t see how he doesn’t get re-elected, excepting a recession or a botched disaster response. (Others have said this too, and I agree with it.)
Maybe its for the best. He is going to fuck shit up, of course, but the economy is going to hit the crapper sooner or later. If Rando-Democrat gets elected in 2020 and there is a recession right after they hit office, President Rando-D gets blamed for it. The Republican party, who’s “stay the fuck on message ability” is vastly more superior than the DNC’s, points to the recession and they get elected again.
The House Democrats are literally playing politics with the whole Mueller affair anyway, and people are seeing it. If they feel he should be impeached, they should just do it already, whether or not they are going to get the senate to convict. Its not supposed to matter if you are going to succeed if you are supposed to “do the right thing”. If they aren’t really doing it, then the trust isn’t there.
I thought Facebook was refusing to take it down. It’s “discredited” only if you subscribe to (like/follow) liberal groups on Facebook.
That’s the problem with Facebook. Every user’s experience is different. And mostly, our Facebook experience is determined by what advertisers want each of us to see. A Bernie supporter sees what advertisers want Bernie supporters to see. A Warren supporter sees something different.
<heart sinking>