Thump will be re-elected in 2020. Count on it.

Sad but true. There is no opposition (so far) that can stop him.

Care to elaborate?

I disagree. He didn’t even get a majority of the popular vote in 2016, and that was before two years worth of outrageous behavior. Even though Trump wasn’t running in this election, the huge voter turnout was fueled by anti-Trump sentiment for the most part.

Sadly, I can’t disagree. Republicans will pinch their nose and vote for him to keep pushing their pro-gun agenda, and the prospect of supreme court appointments.

I disagree as well, but Bernie needs to just stay where he is and not run again. Also, the ACLU needs to ramp up their lawsuits regarding voter suppression, which is almost exclusive to Republican strongholds.

If the election were held today, that’s possibly true, depending on turnout, especially if the Dems idealistically nominate some putz vulnerable to Trump’s smears (cite: “No one ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American public.” – H.L. Mencken, September 19, 1926 ;))

But a lot can happen between now and 2020 – weakening or tanking of the economy in the hands of incompetents, perhaps aggravated by trade issues; more revelations and investigations with the power of a Democrat-controlled House behind them; more idiocy in general from a clueless and more desperate administration; the US becoming more and more obviously a laughingstock on the world stage and useless in international diplomacy, etc.

Bernie probably has a good chance, but I think anyone else would probably lose. I don’t want another conservative (clinton) running with the party of FDR and JFK.

Why do you think Bernie has a good chance? The districts that resulted in the Democrats taking the House were primarily suburban districts that went to Trump in 2016, and the shift was primarily moderate/independent voters that voted Democrat this time around that were seeking a check and balance on the Trump administration.

In much the same way that the Democratic party missed the point in the 2016 POTUS election, they need to not stand blindly by and think that this mid term election was a referendum on a far left progressive agenda, because it wasn’t.

I do think that the Democrats can regain control of the White House if they lean to a more centrist moderate position.

I think it’s still way too early to tell, but it’s been a long time since a President did NOT win re-election (1992).

As long as the economy is still good, I don’t see any reason why Trump won’t get re-elected.

Very few things are so certain as to be “counted on” at a distance of two years, not least the results of a presidential election. Trump remains relatively unpopular; some degree of economic downturn is nearly certain to happen, taking away a major advantage in the eyes of voters. There’s no reasonable method by which we can conclude that he’ll definitely win (or lose), unless you have some prophetic dreams you’re hiding from the rest of us.

most incumbents win unless the economy tanks - like what happened to Carter and Bush Sr. Or if you have a war that is going badly like LBJ - he technically dropped out in 68 but he was not going to win.

As an outsider, my own humble opinion:

  1. You can’t go anywhere near impeachment if you are Democratic. It will galvanize his base and just about anyone the Dems run will get hammered.

  2. The Dems need to be in lock step.

  3. And have a platform they can rally behind and get excited about. It can’t be all anti-Trump or they will lose. I personally feel it needs to be progressive if you want to draw out younger voters, but that’s just me.

  4. The party also has to be entirely behind its candidate and can’t be infighting or they will lose.

  5. The candidate should be exciting and quick on their feet and ideally new. Biden might win but as much as I like him, he might be too old - as is Sanders.

Just as I see it now…2 years is a long time though.

I disagree. I think most people would agree that the economy is humming along. Unemployment is at historic lows. Inflation is low. Interest rates are creeping up but still pretty low. Wages are finally starting to rise.

Really, it could hardly have been better for the Republicans. And yet they still lost the House by a pretty good margin. The way things were stacked for the Senate plus the economy meant there was no way the Republicans were losing that. They lost quite a few state Governors, including Wi, Mi, and Penn, the 3 states Trump won in 2016 that put him over the top.

The fact that the Dems did as good as they did is almost 100% due to dislike of Trump. If the economy had been tanking too, it would have been a tsunami.

I suppose it’s possible that the economy will still be humming along 2 years from now. If that happens I guess I’ll just have to tip my hat to Trump and say “good job”. I really don’t see that happening though.

It only takes one of the following to sink his reelection:

  1. Economy goes down
  2. Voters are sickened of him after two more years
  3. Enough voters in two big swing states (say, Ohio and Florida) turn on him.

I agree with Fugazi and disagree with the OP. If this is as good as the Party can do electorally when the economy is like it is now, they’re in for a catastrophic collapse when the bottom falls out, and that could easily happen over the next year.

What we have to watch out for now is an attempt to depower or demonize the House of Representatives, with the White House and the Senate trying to put in judges who can “interpret” the constitution ideologically and rule from the courts.

Now that the House is in Democrat hands, I suspect they will spend much of their time investigating things. There is an outside chance that they might actually find something.

There is an even slimmer chance they will proceed with impeachment based on whatever they think they have already found. Maybe they will put Ocasio-Cortez in charge of it, or someone else who doesn’t realize that 67 - 54 is not equal to 2/3*100.

What is more likely is two years of gridlock. Which is not necessarily the worst thing for the country - doing nothing is usually better than doing something stupid, or a lot of somethings that are stupid. There is very little chance that the progressives in the House will be able to bring off any of the things they want, thank God, and the further off the deep end they go the better for the other side.

The advantage is always with the incumbent President. One wonders if the Dems can muster two more years of outrage.


Given that the left wingers almost universally got repudiated in all but the bluest districts, it’s either a moderate/conservative or four more years of Trump.

I disagree. I think Trump is hoping he gets to run against Sanders or somebody like him.

They’ll have Trump helping them.

It’s 2018. Trump wasn’t running for re-election this year. Why should the Democrats have been setting up a presidential candidate?

What they’ve been doing is focusing on Congress. Now that this election is done, they can begin working on direct opposition to Trump.