Trump 2020?

Correct me if I’m wrong but the way things sit today every scenario points towards a Democratic POTUS win this fall.
If Trump gets the GOP nomination all polls point to a loss against either Bernie or Hillary…badly. If the GOP goes contested and they decide to bump Trump you just know he’s going to run third party just to mess with them. Again resulting in a victory for the Dems.
So at this point you’d think they’d almost write it off as an loss and start looking at 2020.
But if Trump holds a grudge, and you know he can, what’s to stop him from running third party again in 2020? Again becoming a thorn in the GOPs side threatening to blow it for them again.
Would a better strategy be for them to give Trump the nomination and let him go down in flames in November? So in 2020 they can say “hey, we gave you the nom, you blew it, good try, let’s give someone else a chance.”

Who’s the “they” in that sentence?

Trump has many supporters. I’m sure some of them will fade away if he loses the election (they want to back a winner!), but will enough of them? Will whatever trends that led to his popularity continue and result in him having even more support in 2020? It’s not like he has to get permission to run again in 2020. What makes you think he’s going to be more amenable to the “let’s give someone who can actually win a chance” line of reasoning four years from now?

(I was thinking of “they” as the GOP establishment)

I just think if Trump got his way and got to be the GOP candidate, ran his campaign his way, got the backing of other pubs, and still crashed and burned in November he’d really have no excuse and might think twice about running again.
Whereas if he got bumped and was forced to run 3rd party he’d use it as an excuse for the next 4 years. Not just an excuse put a finger pointing excuse at the GOP who he feels screwed him over and he’s going to return the favor.

In 1992 Ross Perot got almost 20 million votes as a third-party candidate. He tried again in 1996 and got barely 8 million.

In 2020 Trump will be as stale as four-year old fish.

Cruz 2020 is much more likely. (Just like Reagan’s primary fail in '76 and win in '80)

There may not be Trump in 2020. But there will be *a *Trump in 2020.

IOW, somebody appealing to the angry authoritarian white working class. In fact we may see some fresh faces campaigning for Congress in 2018 on that ideological banner. Kinda like the Tea party has become an insular and vocal faction of the rank and file which has produced a smaller, but equally single-minded cadre of congressional candidates and, in some cases, winners.

The more success they have in 2018 the greater the odds of a meaningful presidential run on 2020 by somebody.

I agree, there will be a Trump in 2020. I don’t see the Donald doing this again if he fails to get the nomination in this election year. Campaigns are costly and I don’t see him repeating the same bad investment twice. It isn’t his pattern. He makes poor investments sometimes, but they vary.

However, politics has a way of bringing the odd ducks out of the woodwork, and as long as the GOP continues to throw up the same tired and boring candidates, the faithful will be looking for someone new and entertaining. Someone will arise from the muck and fulfill that role.