From my research, it’s only happened once before that the eligible incumbent was not their party’s candidate and this was because of the civil war.
Will it happen again?
Yes, because the GOP doesn’t have the guts to allow a true primary challenger.
Huh? Lincoln was indeed renominated, and victorious, in 1864. Franklin Pierce is the only elected President who wanted to be renominated but wasn’t, in 1856. Four other sitting Presidents - Tyler, Fillmore, A. Johnson, Arthur - who had succeeded to the office were not nominated for full terms.
Of course he will. Trump is the GOP and the GOP is Trump. There has been absolutely nothing in the last 2+ years to indicate that NOW FINALLY the GOP will try to distance themselves.
Ask again after Robert Mueller finishes up his work.
Unless Robert Mueller himself can put Trump in jail, Cheetohead will be the GOP nominee. There will be the traditional wringing of hands and the bowing of heads, but when it is all over they will fall in line and kiss The Ass Of Power.
LBJ also dropped out after winning the NH primary in 1968 by a much smaller margin than he had expected, and Bobbie Kennedy announcing he was entering the race.
I hope Trump won’t be their candidate. I’m disappointed the Republicans haven’t deposed him now that he’s beyond the two-year mark.
Yes.
And he will get reelected.
Nothing that Mueller comes up with will touch thump until he is out of office (for the second time). I hate this, but I believe this is what will happen.
Sorry… Yes it was Pierce and it was a slavery issue not the civil war. But slavery did lead to the civil war so that’s where my head was.
Moderator Note
Thread relocated from IMHO to Elections.
Yes. Absent an explosive revelation form the Mueller investigation or untimely death, it will be Trump.
And for me personally, I think that Bill Weld is probably the best person in American politics today and I’d happily vote for him in the primary if I could, but his net support probably amounts to about 0.2% of the total electorate.
To the OP: Yes, unless he dies or leaves office.
Historically, I’m wondering if there was ever a case of a President who served two terms and wanted to run for a third (before that became impossible in the 1950s), but was “discouraged” from doing so by his party’s leaders? I’m pretty sure there is no case of a President before FDR openly campaigning for a third term (except Teddy Roosevelt, kind of).
No Republicans adore Trump because he is implementing the policies they want.
I’ma gonna swim against this tide.
No, I don’t think Trump will be the nominee. I believe the Mueller report will be so damaging, Congress will remove him and he will end his days either in prison or in exile in Saudi Arabia, if he can manage to squirt out of the country before they take Air Force One away from him.
I personally think Senate Republicans are at this point waiting for the report to give them the cover they need to do what must be done. Don’t need 'em all. Just 22.
I’m leaning towards yes. Mainly because of what appears to be fellow Russian backers in the GOP besides Trump. If he goes down, then so do the rest. Maybe they need another 4-year delay.
Oh cheer up, he got almost 5% of the vote running for VP!
I doubt Trump can be beaten in the GOP primary, but I think a reasonable, qualified candidate could get 20-30% of the vote against him.
Trump has an 85% approval rating from the GOP. Why would he lose a primary?
Trump represents what a huge % of the GOP actually believe in. Conspiracy theories, neo-fascism and naked bigotry. Why would they abandon him?
Republicans are never going back to boring guys like Jeb Bush and Mitt Romney after the 2016 election where Trump’s brash and confrontational style knocked all the mannered and practiced politicians off the stage like a bunch of bowling pins. The idea of anyone like Kasich gaining any kind of momentum in a primary is absurd. As I keep saying, it isn’t just that Trump gets conservative policies enacted; it’s that he generates “liberal tears” and endless outrage from the opposition, and that is just too, too much fun for Republicans to revel in. They are having a blast with this.
The Mueller investigation is the most overhyped thing since Y2K. At most, a few fall guys will go down, as fall guys are meant to do. I’d be happy to eat these words since nobody would enjoy watching Trump spectacularly crash and burn more than I, but I think the possibility is exceptionally remote.
Of course he will. Still, I’d love to see someone like Larry Hogan make a primary challenge (sorry Bill Weld, you’re 20 years too late). Eventually Republicans are going to have to wake up from this Trump fever dream, and for the sake of our two-party system somebody needs to carry the torch for a sane GOP.