I don’t think it would be any of the ones who failed in the primaries, losing to Trump. The party will want someone fresh, but who still has experience in government, someone who actually knows how to conduct themself in public.
What scares me is that the governor of my state of Kansas, Sam Brownback, might have another chance. We all know he wants to be POTUS so bad he can taste it. He’s younger than the current candidate, being only sixty years old, he toes the GOP line(opposes same sex relationships, abortion, etc.) and even favors teachers being allowed to introduce the concept of “intelligent design” in the classroom.
Talk me down and tell me it won’t be him. But what kind of candidate will the GOP want, and who might it be?
He’s a failed governor, like Christy, so I don’t see it happening. I guess he could get the nomination but appealing to the base, but unless the Kansas miracle he’s been touting for the last 6 years actually happens, what is he going to run on in the general?
Please PLEASE let it be Brownback, Cotton or Issa. They’re all solid ‘appeal to the base, turn off the general’ type candidates with a long history of saying things on camera that will hurt them.
Among a bunch of other failures. He’s a laughingstock among those who are aware of him. The R’s might even lose Oklahoma and Texas would definitely go Blue.
Kansas is the state the other plains states point at and laugh, like Mississippi in the South.
Truthfully, any Republican whose name doesn’t rhyme with Ronald the Chump would have a good chance against Hillary Clinton. She is really unusually unpopular, whatever you think of her politics, and factoring out that this is the year of a big reaction against internationalism / globalism / immigration all over the world. She’s winning this thing by a good margin largely because her opponent is even more unpopular, and has horrific moral character issues.
This is not going to happen, but if Ron Unz ran for president in 2020 I might actually consider going GOP. Buchanan could also pick up much of the ‘Trump vote’ without the personal character issues and fundamental intellectual vacuousness, but he’ll also be 81 in 2020 (though he wouldn’t be the oldest head of state in the last few decades).
My guess is the opposite; recycle one of the also-rans from this time around. My bets would be Christie or Cruz. And depending on how his election goes this time I would think maybe - just maybe - Pat Toomey.
One would think, but historically, perhaps half of candidates lost a primary campaign before winning one. Hillary Clinton, Ronald Reagan, John McCain, Bob Dole, George HW Bush, even Donald Trump(he lost the nomination for the Reform Party in 2000 to Pat Buchanan). Al Gore too
Marco Rubio is the most obvious person to benefit from a second run. He simply was not ready for his first run, yet before he stumbled Republican primary voters were quite ready to consider him a frontrunner, the guy everyone could agree on who wasn’t Trump. If the Republicans are just so desperate for a win that they can calm the f*!*k down, John Kasich will still be young enough, as is John Huntsman.
If the Republicans remain pissed off, then Ted Cruz is the obvious next guy in line, or perhaps Mike Pence.
Brownback is an utter failure. That would be a truly tragic choice.
In MOST cycles, the GOP nominates the most electable candidate. This one was an exception. If it’s the new rule, then yeah, it could be Brownback, although it’s hard to see how he beats Ted Cruz if that’s where the GOP base is in 2020.
Cotton’s got potential, but not in 2020. That doesn’t mean he won’t try, but he won’t win on his first try. As with any far right candidate, there’s Ted Cruz and everyone else pales in comparison.
The 2020 primary will be between Ted Cruz and a more mainstream candidate. If Mike Pence chooses to run he might have the stature to challenge Cruz but he’d probably fall short too.
If I was a betting man though, I’d say Paul Ryan is the 2020 nominee.
I think it’s going to be one of four men, depending on how Republicans take the loss:
1: The establishment manages to take control back, and nominates an establishment candidate. It’s either Kasich or Ryan.
2: The social conservatives manage to wield their considerable power within the party. It’s going to be Cruz.
3: The red-meat contingent decides that the problem was that they didn’t go far enough, and that they need someone more extreme than Trump. It’s going to be Arpaio.
Depends on how vulnerable Clinton looks in 2019. If she looks like an easy target, Tom Cotton will jump in, and IMHO he’d win the nomination but not the election.
If she looks hard to beat, the strong candidates will stay away (like 1991 with parties reversed), and someone will say to him/herself, ‘this is my best chance to at least be the nominee.’ My crystal ball is fuzzier here, but Nikki Haley is my WAG. The GOP Establishment would probably rally around her just to be able to say, “see, we’re not really anti-woman.”