Hypothetical. (Don’t fight it.)
For whatever reason Trump does not run. Resigns, impeached and convicted, just tired of it … whatever.
Who do you think gets the GOP nod? I’d bet on Nikki Haley. I’d bet against Pence.
Does it being not-Trump alter who you’d assess as the the best D choice?
I just don’t see Haley breaking through to the national stage like that without a real assist. I can see Trump boosting her by replacing Pence on the ticket with her during his re-election but I can’t see her doing it solo.
It’ll be an interesting free-for-all if Trump doesn’t run. It’s likely that Pence would be considered the frontrunner but he’s not Trump and would have trouble motivating the core Trump supporters. And I’m not sure he had the guts to go full on xenophobic as Trump. He lacks Trumps charisma and self-assuredness to pull it off. Remember, before he was selected to run he wasn’t even thought that highly of in his home state of Indiana. And he didn’t even endorse Trump in the primary, he endorsed Cruz and gave some nice statements about Trump.
He’s been a good foot soldier for Trump. But this is the problem with building a constituency on a cult of personality: it falls apart quickly when the personality is no longer there. There has to be a time of knives to figure out who inherits the mantle. Who wins that is anyone’s guess. And people like Kasich will be out there shouting about a ‘return to normalcy’ which I’m not sure Trump’s most ardent supporters will be about.
First day in office Romney criticizes Trump. I don’t know if he’d garner enough republican support due to his Trump bashing and the fact that he lost last time he ran (and I don’t think he’d primary Trump) but he certainly seems to be telegraphing he’d run if Trump didn’t run.
It’s still early, but not too early, to see who has been to Iowa. On the R side, in October of 2018, other than Trump & Pence, it was Paul Ryan showing up to campaign for the locals running. You might see that as normal for a sitting House Speaker, but it also gets his chits in with the local party establishment. So, I’m calling it that he is exploring running for 2020.
The only other R was Ben Sasse, giving a speech at UI as part of a lecture series. So, he’s getting his moist finger up into the breeze (get your mind out of the gutter!)
Sasse is one of the most anti-Trump Republicans that there is in the Senate (not necessarily in policy, but in mannerisms, education, philosophy, etc.) and so he would probably be most suitable.
I think the chance is approximately zero of anyone from the Sasse-Flake-Kasich wing of the party winning the 2020 nomination if Trump doesn’t run. With or without Trump, the party is still in the place where he’s moved it to.
I’d look for someone like Tom Cotton or Rick Scott to be the nominee.
Cotton is like Ted Cruz without the charm and good looks. Pass.
Pence is the Vice President and, depending on how the OP scenario played out, would be the incumbent President. As such, he would be the presumptive nominee.
I don’t see Nikki Haley as a realistic candidate. She’s the kind of candidate that conservatives imagine non-conservatives vote for.
I assume the MAGAbots will find another racist bit of scum to rally around. Maybe Steve King. It will not be Pence, he couldn’t fill a high school gym if he were to campaign.
Democrats will run someone infinitely more qualified no matter who the Republicans choose (or Democrats, for that matter)
Why not? If there are people who can be told that Donald Trump is a qualified candidate and believe it, why can’t they believe the same thing about Mike Pence? There are obviously a large number of people who don’t use critical thinking when they choose who to vote for.
You say this as if everyone on the planet is interchangeable. Pence isn’t Trump so why the hell should they think the same thing about Pence? Trump got elected largely by promising to blow up the Washington establishment and he was such a loudmouth goofball that people believed him. Pence couldn’t pull that off in a million years.
Pence makes Dukakis look like Elvis.
I’d assume Missouri Senator Josh Hawley will at least look at the race, since he will presumably be bored by his new job already.
And kicking McCaskill out of office will give him some street cred with the hard right.
Oh please. Can you name a single conservative that’s criticized Haley? Cause all I’ve seen is criticism about her $50K drapes, and that wasn’t by conservatives. She’s well-liked.
Hmm, but if Pence had taken on the presidency through Trump resigning or whatever, would he be given the usual deference? I doubt that there would be the usual reluctance to challenge a sitting president in the primary.
Prediction markets show Haley and Pence as roughly tied for 2nd-most likely R to win the nomination, with Kasich in 4th place. Change the question to ‘win the Presidency’ and now Kasich moves up and Pence moves down.
It sounds like a fair bet, with markets offering roughly equal odds. I’d take Pence if you’re desperate for some action but hardly feel confident — how about 2¼ liters of cheap rum? Bet’s off if the R nominee is other than Pence or Haley.
One of the main reasons for Trump not to run in 2020 is if he is, for whatever reason, no longer Potus. So Pence would be running with the advantage of incumbency. And, although Haley is a right-winger she doesn’t seem to be anti-women, anti-foreigner, or generally hateful so doesn’t really fit in with today’s Repub Party. I’m happy to bet on Pence.
(Prediction markets seem to agree that the next President will probably be one of these four: Trump, O’Rourke, Harris or Biden.)
what are these prediction markets?
Pft, I don’t think the wife will go for a second term, and he surely hates the scrutiny. I think he’ll put ivanka into the White House. It’d be an easy sell to his rabid rank and file. Wouldn’t they just love the first female president to be a Trump? Wouldn’t that teach them democrats? He’s got the money and the numbers I’d bet.
Meanwhile the Democrats get caught behind, trying to run an older, white, career politician on a return to a more sane time, blah, blah, blah. They’ll be equally stunned to lose a second time.
An incumbent Pence would be the Republican candidate. Given the Republican constituent base Palin is a likely running mate.
Biden/Warren is the likely opponent.
Rocky de la Fuente/AOC might be more fun!
They’ll go with Romney, try to bring back the old GOP. For Dems? No idea. I doubt it would change it.