Assuming Trump loses this November (which is the most likely scenario as of now, but by no means a sure thing), who will be the most likely and strongest Republican frontrunner when Hillary runs for re-election in 2020?
My first thought is that, after Trump gets sent to bed without supper, Jeb will step up again and argue the need to return to core values. You don’t get more establishment than him.
Or maybe Ryan as the new shining light of the party. If he ran a serious race, he’d probably beat Jeb in the primary.
I think Paul Ryan might be a good candidate at that point depending on how well he does as speaker of the house.
Cruz won’t be dead. The Republican’s are traditionally the party of ‘the next guy’s turn’, and Ted bowed out at an appropriate time - so he can argue it is his turn.
Of course, that would to some extent make him the establishment candidate, which is somewhat ironic.
And he’s got three years or so to get a personality transplant so that people might be able to like him.
I think I can safely say, this thread will be entirely wild ass guessing.
Whether Trump wins or loses, there will be a Perot (or higher) level third party candidate in 2020.
I think Ryan will be the default front runner. He’s managed to stay out of the current debacle and a few years as Speaker will keep him in the news and build up his credibility as a presidential possibility. I’m guessing he’ll decide around 2019 how vulnerable Clinton is looking and if he wants to challenge an incumbent or wait until 2024.
What will be interesting is what sort of reputation Ryan will work on building. Will he portray himself as the true defender of conservatism protecting America from the Clinton presidency? Or will he try to enact a lot of legislation in order to show off his political skills and ability to get things done in office?
I don’t see why. This divisions in both parties this year offered openings for third party candidates but hasn’t produced one. I think we can assume 2020 will revert to the mean and we’ll have a fairly routine presidential race.
At the rate the candidates keep dropping in quality, I predict the 2020 GOP candidate will be Hulk Hogan with Khloe Kardashian as his running mate.
In fact, if anything this year is showing that running third party is the stupid path. Hijacking an existing party is clearly a million times easier. So rather than expecting routine we might expect Nader/Perot types running hard in the primaries next time.
Speakers of the House who have run for president: (To the best of my recollection)
Henry Clay
John Bell
James K. Polk
James G. Blaine
John Nance Garner
Newt Gingrich
Only one winner. It’s not a well trodden path.
In that case, I’d say Ben Carson…because he is a wild ass.
Doesn’t mean anything at all imho unless you can give an argument that the position as Speaker working against you. But if are casting bones and looking for precedent, as it happens Polk was also chair of the Ways and Means committe just like Ryan.
This is something I recall musing on in the past. From this year’s crop, I could see Cruz, Walker, or Kasich making a serious second attempt in 2020. Rubio or Christie might join in, but it’s hard to see either of them getting more traction this time. The non-2016-candidate front-runners seem to be Haley and Ryan. I’d expect to see some weaker candidates jump in, too, like Tom Cotton. Maybe we’ll get a couple of non-qualified celebrities, like Bobby Knight or Mike Ditka.
I’d say, and this is kind of spitballin’, that the probability of the nominee being someone mentioned in this post is about 40%, and I’d say that’s 20% Cruz, 8% Walker, 6% Haley, 5% Ryan, 1% everyone else. Which still means better than even odds it’s someone else entirely.
I’d say it depends on the job approval rating of the incumbent POTUS. In 1980 and 1992, the election years and election days featured POTUS’ withjob approvals under 40%. Of course, since the GOP has spent a generation convincing themselves of the Perot-myth, they’ll move heaven and Earth to stop a 3rd partier who isn’t an extreme liberal. Both 1980 and 1992 saw incumbents lose, and 3rd partiers (Anderson and Perot) get over 5% of the vote nationally. In 1968, when LBJ had job approvals near and often under 40% during that year, his would-be successor and Nixon faced Wallace, who also got over 5%. Basically, only President Hillary’s job numbers have the cards to determine if a 3rd party runs.
On Paul Ryan, his biggest problem will be his voting record in the House. Being a member of Congress hurts you unless both candidates (like in 2008) are members of Congress (either chamber). Hurts both in the primaries (Cruz, Rubio, etc) and the general (Kerry, Dole, etc.).
The GOP’s best shot would be a popular and young moderate
governor, assuming the national GOP moves to the center, a la Clinton 1992.
Paul Ryan or Nikki Haley.
I might be tempted to vote for that ticked just so I can say the President of the United States once gave me a piggy back ride.
Personality transplant won’t be enough. He’ll need to tear that face off and have a new one sewn on.
Lol. TRUMP has exposed to the world what a low-energy loser Jeb! is. He is deader then disco and at this point, Caitlyn Jenner has a better chance of winning the Republican nomination then the biggest Loser in American history.
Hopefully it will be someone who will moderate the nationalist populism TRUMP has unleashed into a more cohesive ideology and one that can better attract racial minorities. Someone like Ron Unz in other words.
May 6, 2012.
Yeah. That worked well.
Or just break out the iron mask.