I’m guessing that once the election is over, both parties will quietly rewrite the primary procedures to avoid the kind of election we’ve been going through. Keep in mind the party controls the process and doesn’t want outsiders upsetting the system.
I’d take the word of Trump at almost exactly the same time as Hell froze over. Stranger things have happened. (Btw, the ‘biggest loser’ title won’t last 6 months, when Trump has it bestowed upon him at the hands of Hillary. Couldn’t happen to a nicer guy.)
No way does Unz have the support or popularity to be able to pull off a presidential run, let alone any experience. Ask a CA resident who he is and you’ll get a blank stare. Mention Prop 187 and you might get a twinge of recognition. He’s a political nonentity.
It is my fervent hope that there be no RepublIcan Party to field a candidate in 2020.
Failing that, Sarah Palin.
By what possible standard is Trump “the next guy” whose turn it was? Even if that pattern ever had any validity (which I doubt; the only way we can tell who the “next guy” was is in hindsight), it certainly doesn’t any more.
Forget Jeb, a Trump loss is not going to convince Republicans to go back to that kind of party. Very few people outside the Beltway want that. The base controls the party now, not the donors, and that’s a good thing. The problem right now is that the base is immature and ignorant, which leads to Donald Trump and who knows, maybe Kanye West or Ann Coulter in 2020. But I’d rather have the actual voters go through the growing pains than surrender their power back to the elites.
Assuming we all learn something from this debacle, I’d rate Ryan as a pretty good frontrunner for 2020. Cruz is the obvious “next” candidate if we want to lose for going too far right. Rubio will get a chance to redeem himself. Mike Pence will join in if the field is small, as in less than a dozen candidates. Tom Cotton may be the young buck willing to run his first Presidential campaign. He’ll lose, but can position himself as “next” himself. Mark Sanford, years removed from his affair scandal, might take a shot. Nikki Haley would be a frontrunner if she ran. Brian Sandoval is also top notch. If people like Trump’s style but want someone with an actual governing record, Matt Bevin might take the plunge.
If I had to predict though, I think the most likely outcome would be Nikki Haley. She’s outsider enough and she’s capable of appealing to both the GOP base and moderate voters.
But I also have to predict a Clinton reelection simply due to her record in previous offices(she tends to be much more popular as an officeholder than a candidate, and as an incumbent she’ll have ratings closer to officeholder status even though she’s running), plus it looks like we’re headed for an overdue recession early in her Presidency, which means we’ll probably be rolling along nicely by 2019. The good news for my side is that we’re probably going to crush everything in 2018. 2014 proved that Republicans can now avoid screwing up the unscrewuppable at least in terms of selecting Senate and House candidates. Holding 60 Senate seats after 2018 and a record House majority is a very real possibility.
Heh if I were you I’d be more worried about the GOP eating its own well before dreaming about 2018. The loudmouthed, ignorant one (no, the other one, Palin) is claiming she’ll campaign against Ryan for having the temerity to defend the establishment. I love the irony of someone who can’t even be bothered to read periodicals claiming he’s disconnected.
I listed Haley in my earlier post, too, but she strikes me as too smart and strategic - and realistic - enough to run against an incumbent Clinton (unless Clinton is looking really weak), and easily young enough to wait until 2024.
If anyone was worried about an impending recession, they can relax now…
You’re overly enamored with the 2018 map. It leans Republican, but it’s not at all the lights-out awesome go team red map that you seem to think it is.
I’m predicting a push away from open primaries in a lot of states.
that and the GOP could enact superdelegates.
That’s the guy. He feeds into the it’s-his-turn mindset the Establishment Republicans have, and he has a VP run to bolster it. He does have his extremist fiscal record to deal with (voucherizing Medicare and privatizing Social Security? Really, dude?), however. That’s not going away. He *might *also be just Minority Leader, not Speaker, after a monstrous enough Trump campaign, btw. Might.
It won’t be any of the “deep bench” who ran this time, because they’re now all just a bunch of schlubs who couldn’t even beat Trump.
C’mon, guys, you’re gonna get to 100 Obamacare reveal votes any day now!
But won’t take it. It’s too late anyway.
Those are the names near the top of your list now?
You do. That’s what the thread is about.
By being both female and sort of brown? It does take more than that, not just being an ethnic-panderer’s dream of a mix of Carly Fiorina and Bobby Jindal. Plus, there are the infidelity rumors.
How about some names?
But not something you’ll call a prediction? Pity, that.
True. But no Secretary of State has become President since James Buchanan.
And going further downhill in 2024, they’ll nominate the Hulk
I hope he does. I can see the commercial now. Dark room, alarm clock showing 3am, nothing else is visible.
Phone rings and rings, no answer. Finally, the lights go on revealing an bedroom with an empty bed in it. A guy in a suit comes in and answers the phone.
"Hello, white house, the president? We think he’s in Argentina or somewhere, no one has heard from him in days. Can I help you. "
Picture of mushroom cloud.
Voice over: It’s 3am. do you know where your president is?
I guess I’m saying that there are scandals and there are disqualifying events and walking out of your job and telling no one where to find you when you are the leader is more in the latter camp. I don’t think things have changed that much.
Yeah, but the nice thing about time is that once enough of it has passed you can credibly claim you’re a better person now. Heck, Ed Kennedy tried it, almost pulled it off.
No internet back then and he was a Kennedy.
I can see Rubio having another go at it, but unless he does some serious groundwork between now and then it’s going to be “Marco who?”. And I think Cruz has had his day - the others fell away early enough; it’s Cruz who will be tainted by the label of “the guy who lost to Trump”.
I’d like to think idiots like Tom Cotton wouldn’t get a glance but given where we are now I honestly have no fucking idea what the mindset of the GOP will be like in four years. We’ll probably get at least one more cycle of “we need a TRUER conservative!” before they finally get the message, but who that truerer conservative is likely to be is a mystery.
WAG: let’s see who’s onstage at the convention - if they trot out Mia Love again, maybe it’ll be her.
Not a chance. He would be a pro-science candidate.
I think when Trump loses in 2016, he’ll try again in 2020. Why not? He gets unlimited media time, it boosts his brand, and is a good financial move. Republican voters have proven just how stupid they are in 2016, why wouldn’t they be as dumb or dumber in 2020?
Trump wouldn’t do that - there would be too much reminder of what a “loser” he was. He can’t maintain the “I always win” rhetoric when it’s painfully obvious he doesn’t. When he loses this year (one hopes) he’ll go into full sour grapes mode and put it all behind him.
But we could certainly get some other celebrity demagogue - it’s a reality TV world, after all.