I think a lot of it will depend on how Trump is removed from the ticket. For instance, if assassinated it will be someone very Trump-like, like Paul Ryan. OTOH, if he’s forced out in shame (scandal/treason conviction/what-have-you), it will probably be someone who opposed him all along, like Kasich.
As for the Democrats response? Well, again that depends on what happens with Trump. If 2016 is any indication, you can achieve victory by attacking a previous administration if the candidate was associated with it in some way. It will come down to whether attacking the Trump administration is a sound strategy or not. A dead Trump would make that almost impossible. An imprisoned Trump much more likely.
Dream on. Since there is zero chance Trump will resign or be removed from office after conviction by the Senate it is highly likely whoever gets the nomination if he declines to run again will need the backing of the Trumpistas in the GOP. Therefore I think it likely the Republican ticket in this situation would be some combo of Congressman and racist Steve King, Tom Cotton, Louie Gohmert and Sean Hannity.
Betfair.com and Predictit.org are two of them. Save some clicks by going to David Rothschild’s Predictwise site — he reports Betfair prices, Predictit prices and his own predictions aggregated from them. (Predictwise just shows nominees and winning party; Betfair also has a market for the November winner.)
There are also many British sportsbooks that take bets on U.S. elections; I don’t know if any are taking bets on 2020 yet. Finally, Nate Silver’s predictions are probably at least as good as the markets; is he making predictions yet?
Kasich would have a very difficult time. He’s not even liked by Republicans in his home state, where his positive approval rating is all due to independents and Democrats. (In 2010, I predicted that he would eventually descend into very bad relations with his party. He’s not exactly good at interpersonal relations (John McCain said he had too much of a temper) and his one competitive campaign was pretty mediocre. I just had no idea he’d find a way to get Ohio Democrats to approve of him at the same time.)
I think the resignation chances are far closer to 100% than 0%. When the report comes out, it will be damning. He will trade resignation for no prison time.
The problem is that there’s literally nobody who can make that deal. Even if the Mortuary Attendant offers him a federal pardon, he’s still looking at enough state charges to put him away for life even if he slims down to 239 pounds and develops some healthy muscle tone.
I’m fully aware that conservatives love Haley. What I said was that conservatives are mistaken in their belief that everyone else will vote for Haley as well.
Conservatives think that all they need to do to get a conservative President is find a conservative candidate who’s a woman or non-white. And they think Haley is both. They believe that liberals will be so foolish that they’ll vote for a non-white woman even if that non-white woman is the complete opposite of everything liberals believe in.
Liberals aren’t that stupid. If a conservative non-white woman is running against a liberal white man, liberals are going to vote for the liberal not the conservative. Liberals are not as welded to identity as conservatives think they are.
You don’t need all or even many liberals, they’re a bonus. What they really need is tor repair damage Trump did with suburban females. And attract enough independents.
If Pence isn’t the incumbent POTUS at the time, I agree. Haley is a successful politician in her own right and had a successful stint at the UN and left on her own terms.
I think Haley’s an empty suit. When she was governor, she forced every state employee to answer every phone call by saying “it’s a beautiful day in South Carolina” Jesus. It’s hard to imagine a more moronic micromanaging idea than that. If this was an example of her executive leadership, put her in the Palin class.
Look, anybody that’s been on and lauded by Fox News is on the “national stage”. It may not be part of the national stage that a lot of people want to pay attention to, but it is on there.
There is also a tokenist belief among them that putting women and minorities in the front window is a way to deflect an image of being the party of white men. It may be political calculation, or it may be a way to avoid confronting the reasons for that image.
As well as showing what hypocrites liberals are when it comes to women and minorities. “We LOVE women and minorities. As long as believe what we believe and say what we say. If they don’t, they’re blithering idiot traitors to their sex and Uncle Toms.”