If you’re a stalwart Democrat, does this concern you? Or do you think he’s wildly mistaken? Do you think he’s lying and this is just a strategy to raise his own profile, or motivate Democrats to get more politically-engaged? What odds would you give Trump of being re-elected in 2020?
I don’t give him a 55% chance of still being President in 2020.
I remember the beginning of the Republican nominating process, when there were so many candidates they couldn’t fit them all in one debate. And the Democrats have been criticized for anointing Hillary because it was her turn and that there was no genuine competition in her nomination.
So to say that too many Democrats will throw their hats in the ring next time and step on each other seems to be rather ignorant of recent history.
I think he’s mistaken, I would put Trump’s re-election chances somewhere more around 85%. He’ll have the advantage of the incumbency, all his skeletons will have been already aired-out and old news, and Republicans will be 100% behind him from the very start of the campaign next time out.
On the other hand, the Democrats will most likely still be badly fractured. Hard core leftists are soured on the Democratic party in general, and even if Saint Bernie himself were to be the nominee next time, it wouldn’t surprise me if many of his prior supporters dismiss him as a sell-out for endorsing Clinton in 2016 and stick with Jill Stein.
Demographics of the upper midwest will probably not have changed greatly in the 4 years, so electorally conditions would probably be very similar in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. White rural voters aren’t just going to flip back to voting Democratic just because they have a different face to vote for, or because Democrats offer a different “message”. Party affiliation isn’t wishy washy like that. We’re seeing the tail end of a once-a-century political migration of rural whites from being democrats to republicans that began in the south in the 60s and is continuing now through the upper midwest.
The 15% chance of him losing basically boils down to there being a really catastrophic economic downturn shortly before the election.
So are you assuming that the current investigations will turn up nothing, or that their results will be ignored?
And what do you believe he’ll do between then and now to bring his approval ratings back up? Is just not being a democrat sufficient?
The investigations might very well turn up something damaging enough to cause trouble for a few in Trump’s circle, Flynn possibly. But for Trump himself? Can you actually imagine something that would prompt Republicans to go through with removing him from office? A Republican candidate just tried to choke a journalist, and the GOP response was “We’ll let the voters decided if that’s bad or not”. They’ll give him the same benefit if something damning is revealed.
Regarding approval ratings, for one thing I suspect his approval rate will “revert to the mean” over time, as he becomes more normalized. For another, do approval ratings have anything to do with re-election chances? I don’t know that they do.
They do, I think, but they have to get a lot lower before we can definitely say his chances of being reelected are diminished. Like into the 20s.
Not concerned, 2018 will neuter him (something he really needs done to him) and I beleive remain in effect till he leaves, till then the courts will contain him. Dems/ Libs outnumber Rebs / Cons and will come out of the woodwork to vote to make this so. His heyday is now, even if his/our term/sentence is 8 years.
It certainly affects whether Republicans, particularly those in political power, are “100% behind him.” He didn’t even have 100% when he was running against Clinton.
So maybe, in 2020, if asked (and they will be asked), powerful Republican politicians and their donors will be able say, with a straight face, “Yes, I have the utmost confidence in Donald Trump’s ability to run the country, and faith in the people he appoints to advise him,” but I don’t think it’s anywhere close to a sure thing. Didn’t people constantly say how long just a few months is in politics during the election?
Well the “investigations,” after 11 months, have ‘turned up’ nothing. At this point my bet is this is super charged BS driven by biased media headlines and cherry picked info. I say this goes away to be replaced by some other politically manufactured BS conspiracy. That gets old and the independents come back to Trump in 2020.
I don’t even give him a 55% of him still being President by the midterms. At this rate 2017 might even be another Year of Three Presidents.
The conservative base is in rural areas and if Trump starts a nuclear war, the primary targets will be cities.
I question Bloomberg on this one. Clinton didn’t seem to run on a “vote for me because I’m a woman” platform. This seems more like something that Republicans believe Clinton did than something she actually did. The Republicans love that “identity politics” charge and are always eager to throw it out there.
I do agree that Clinton ran on “the other guy’s bad” issue - but she was right on that issue.
If the 7-year economic cycle holds true, we are due for a recession in 2018 or 2019. One way or another, I think Trump’s odds of getting re-elected are less than 20%.
It’s quite likely that the Republicans will not only hold on to the House in 2018, but actually pick up Senate seats.
Also, another factor I forgot to mention is that a number of states will most likely have more restrictive voting rules by 2020, so that will also work towards Trump’s re-election.
Really? “I’m with her”? Go take a look at the video on the home page of her site - www.hillaryclinton.com. It’s got identity politics littered throughout it: “Love triumphs” “#BlackLivesMatter” the bit about the shoes, etc.
Here’s how CNN put it:
There were a couple of us offering 2/1 against Trump impeachment recently, but if you are offering 55% (4/5) on him not making the mid-terms I’ll stake you.