Trump will definitely have the advantage of incumbency and of a hardcore base. FWIW I do not see 2018 being anything like 1994 or 2010 necessarily – party in opposition gains, yes, but between gerrymandering and how the WWC will ***not *have soured that much on the GOP (not necessarily Trump), it may not upend everything.
As to the element of “things that may come up” in the intervening years, don’t underestimate the degree to which many voters believe Liberal Tears are worth enduring some pain of their own.
I’m always concerned. That being said, Democrats should win if they have just a slight improvement over Hillary – someone a bit more charismatic, or with a slightly better campaign team, or with a slightly better message, etc. I think that’s a realistic goal. Democrats just need slightly better turnout to win the Presidency.
I’m more concerned (and eager) about 2018. So far I think the Democrats are generally responding appropriately as the minority party.
Trump won’t be the republican nominee in 2020. His presidency is a disaster, and his poor judgement guarantees that it won’t get any better. The idea of Trump having a second term is laughable.
Bloomberg has his own political agenda, and unless he has some great track record of political predictions, or can offer a coherent argument why he’s right, I say phooey!!
So one rich pol with no inside knowledge pulls a number out of the air that basically boils down to Trump might be reelected but with no commitment either way, and this is news?
I estimate that there is a 38% chance that it will rain in New York on election day in 2020. What do I win.
I can’t say this is terribly worrying for me. After all:
It might well be President Pence running after the Russia investigation is complete. Pence is so charisma-challenged that he makes Mike Dukakis look like Elvis.
A lot of people are going to be hurt by Republican policies, in particular those 23 million people who will lose their health insurance.
Democrats are not going to nominate someone less popular than diarrhea.
Demographic shifts continue to make the country less white and less rural with each election. Sooner or later, Republicans won’t have enough white bumpkins to be competitive.
The election of this man-baby has awoken and energized that part of the electorate that doesn’t watch Fox News or listen to Hate Radio.
I don’t know how to quantify Trump’s chances in 20/20 or if he’ll even be interested in running – he may decide to take his chips, walk away from the table, and cash out. But I do agree that, even as murky as things have become for the GOP, the democrats probably have a long, long way to go before even being close to making significant gains. While people are gnashing their teeth over Trump, what Democrats need to realize is that Trump could simply decide not to run for a second term and turn it over to Mike Pence, who could become a dominant force politically for years to come.
My take is that Bloomberg’s trying to jolt the DNC to redefine itself and to get away from identity politics that it has assumed that it could rely on since 2008. It needs to find the right balance between being a party that protects minority rights while more broadly being seen as a party that is more interested in issues than just demography. 2016 wasn’t the first time the Democrats lost with that strategy – they’ve been losing control of local and regional races with that approach going back to the 1990s and that’s why they find themselves in their current disadvantage. In this regard, he’s right on the money.
Of course, but Trump won by making endless promises that he can’t keep. He can’t do that twice. I won’t make the mistake of overestimating the American electorate again, but even the gullible who fell for his nonsense won’t get excited about being fooled twice.
A lot of people thought that of George W Bush in 2001. He left office 7 years later. His 2004 victory was narrow, but it was still a win. The American people have rewarded a party that has more or less presided over the decline of the country, and they inexplicably keep giving it more power. Yes, there’s gerrymandering and yes there’s money in politics, but at some point, you have to lay the responsibility at the feet of millions of voters who are, for whatever reason, not interested in the facts – and the others who might be but just can’t see the use in going to the polls to vote.
Conservative voters are more motivated to support conservative candidates than progressives are to support theirs. That’s a problem.
Trump only managed 10 percent of the vote in Manhattan, his home county. Why? Because New Yorkers know him. When republican Bloomberg, an actual self-made billionaire, ran for re-election in 2005 he captured 60 percent of the vote in Manhattan. Why? Because he’s intelligent, competent and has managerial skills. Trump has none of that.
The casino investors learned the hard way. The American banks, none of which will loan Trump money, learned the hard way. Now the country is suffering in the same manner. Who buys a second lemon from the slick used car dealer? One term is the ceiling for a bullshitter like Trump.
ETA: That’s not to suggest that a democrat will automatically win in 2020, but I’d bet actual cash that Trump won’t even be the republican nominee.
Maybe if the conditions under which the 2016 election were held still apply in 2020, Trump has a 55% chance. However, I see pretty much anybody who will be attending college (or high school and will be 18 by election day) getting their collective act together and making sure Bernie Sanders (or his handpicked “heir”) gets the Democratic nomination in 2020. It may depend on how the 2018 elections - especially the Democratic and “open” (like in California, where all parties participate together) primaries - turn out; do the “democratic socialists” get a foot in the door?
Not necessarily, but people aren’t always rational. There are plenty of people who appreciated Trump for “telling it like it is” who also appreciate Sanders for the same reason. Maybe not enough to overcome a lack of liberal enthusiasm and red-baiting, but some independents might swing over to Sanders.
Living in a purple neighborhood in a purple state – yes, one of the Three States that Destroyed the World – I have a hard time picturing any of my neighbor Trump voters voting for Sanders. But I suppose it’s possible – we’ll never know for sure.
I didn’t have time to finish my thoughts in my previous post. Obviously, there’s no question that Trump’s presidency (and any future candidacy) is on the ropes right now, but it’s far from clear what is going to happen in the future, which is probably the most honest and most accurate assessment out there. Anyone who says Trump is going to cruise to victory in 2020 is probably making bets too soon, as are people who are writing him off.
If I had to guess, I’d wager that his economic policies are a recipe for economic ruin and would probably put any challenger in a good position in 4 years. But there’s no hard data suggesting that an economic meltdown is imminent and it’s not even clear his policies are even going to pass congress, which is a danger to his candidacy in its own right.
I’ll put it this way: I think that, beyond the long-term risks of extreme GOP failures aside, Trump’s biggest challenge right now is learning how to figure out congress to get things done. Even his own party is beginning to realize that they’re running out of time. But if he can figure that out within the next 6 months just enough to get some watered-down versions of slam dunk GOP pet legislation, then he stands a really good chance of getting re-elected.
Despite the extraordinary evidence of connections to Russia and corruption up and down his administration, the simple fact is that impeachment is a political process and will depend on his popularity. It’s highly possible that some of his inner circle might face some legal trouble but the odds of removing any president from office when that person’s party controls congress is really, really low, even when cast in the worst light.