America has one political party which pushes the truth … opposed by a gang of criminals and hypocrites who do nothing but lie. The liars are favored to win.
By 2004 American voters were catching on to the lies and incompetence of the Bush-Cheney misadventures. John Kerry, a Vietnam War hero, was running to unseat Dubya, a malingerer whose connections got him a cushy military service flying airplanes in Florida (and who couldn’t even be bothered to do that, his connections saving him from AWOL arrest). The GOP strategy for the campaign was non-stop lies about Kerry’s war record.
Dubya Bush won the 2004 election because … voters were “uncertain” about Kerry’s military record. :smack:
In 2016 the GOP ran a despicable man, a criminal swindler, rapist, possible traitor. He won because (due to GOP lies with Kremlin assistance) voters were “uncertain” about Hillary’s integrity.
And now both Nate Silver and prediction markets have the 2020 election pegged as an even-money prospect.
You’d never know the 2020 election is a coin-toss to read the pundits at SDMB. To hear them talk, Trump’s defeat is so certain the D’s should go for broke, nominating a lesbian black Islamic socialist with a Spanish surname. Victory is guaranteed so let’s show what we can do! :smack:
:dubious: You must be reading different pundits. That’s not what I’m picking up here. I believe thump will get reelected, partly because his base will never desert him.
But his reelection is guaranteed because the Republicans are willing to employ any methods they can to make sure it happens-- voter suppression by any means, intimidation, transportation restrictions, draconian i.d., rules, reducing the number of polling places available, resisting making election day a holiday so people don’t have to take off from work to vote. They have no scruples and no conscience when it comes to keeping their puppet in the White House for four more years.
I dunno, I like to think I’m fairly centrist and that mayor fella, Buttigieg is looking like someone I’d vote for over any of the other names being thrown out there.
Why are people so convinced of Trump’s reelection because “his base will never leave him” when his base has consistently hovered at around 30 percent? That’s not overwhelming approval.
Because of the shenanigans reported on in the Mueller Report, there will hopefully be a closer alarm watch on those sorts of doings by the press and progressive watchdog groups.
However, the Dems should have a huge advantage in not backing unelectable Hillary this time around.
Obama got elected because his opponents weren’t willing to tell outright lies and exploit the stupidity referred to in the OP, as well as to court white nationalists.
Trump wasn’t elected solely by his base. There are always those who will vote Republican no matter how corrupt the candidate. Those, combined with the white nationalists, along with his base of suckers, got him just enough votes in just the right places to will the Electoral College. It’s really the suckers who make the difference, though, because some of them (only some–not many) voted for Obama before.
Obama got put over the top by record black turnout. It’s just that simple. Blacks voted for him because he was black. Sadly, this is about the depth of analysis that most voters routinely engage in.
Trump won in 2016 because (a) most Republicans would vote the R ticket even if the candidate was an orange tufted baboon, and (b) there were enough xenophobes, bigots, and white nationalists to put him over the top.
What greatly compounds the problem is the generally very low voter turnout, so that whatever voting blocs the candidate happens to attract have a disproportionate influence.
Trump barely squeaked by on a technicality in 2016 after eight years of Obama, which put the enthusiasm entirely on their side. Whatever advantages incumbency might provide him pale in comparison to what four years of his presidency has done for the relative enthusiasm of each side.
Only about half of Americans vote, even in Presidential elections. If the 30% of the total who are Trump fans all vote, and only about a third of the other 70% of Americans vote, then you get the usual number of total votes…with Trump getting more than the Democrat.
Add in social-media pressure on Democrats to vote 3rd-party----and there will be a TON of it (the Russian bots are already hitting that theme hard, along with “Democrats are cowards, why vote for cowards?”)…and you have a secure re-election for Mr. Deplorable.
Here’s my prediction. 62,984,828 people voted for Trump in 2016. That number will be virtually the same, and in virtually the same geographic distribution, in 2020. Because perhaps no President in history running for reelection has done less to draw more voters toward him without also driving his supporters away.
If the Democrats want to win, they need to find roughly 50,000 more voters in Pennsylvania, 23,000 in Wisconsin, and 12,000 in Michigan, without* losing* roughly 45,000 voters in Minnesota, 27,000 in Nevada, and 3,000 in New Hampshire.
Anyone who thinks they can predict that right now is a damn fool.