What percent of 2016 Trump voters won't vote for him in 2020?

I say 6% but most will stay home rather than vote for Biden.

My guess is around 5%, assuming we discount those who have died since the 2016 election. There’s been speculation that George W. Bush might endorse Biden. Pondering that scenario, and how small an impact even something like that is likely to have, makes me think the number is in the low to mid single digits.

Bush is the only living GOP ex president. Did Carter and Clinton endorse Biden yet? If not they surely will.

I’ll wait for specific polling that asks this in the fall, but my gut tells me very few. But very few might be more than enough – if everyone votes the same as 2016, except for 1 or 2% of Trump voters switching to Democratic, I believe that would be enough to give Biden the win (maybe even comfortably.

If they’re in the right places. It seems like these days that electoral politics is more about demographic changes than people changing their minds. Young white liberals are moving out of the upper Midwest so it got redder, and moved to places like Virginia that has turned blue and North Carolina that is turning blue. Old people move to Florida so it’s stayed purple, and so on.

Virtually none. It’s all cultural identity politics now. You’re either in the blue tribe or the red tribe. Elections are won or lost depending solely on Democratic turnout, since Republicans always turn out.

AZ and Las Vegas are also pretty big areas for retirees. Seems like Midwest people retire there, while east coast people retire to FL. Then you have “halfbacks” who spend winter in FL and summer in a cooler place like the Appalachian mountains.

I’d say very few. Had a letter to the editor in the Dallas Morning News today from a man who described himself as a lifelong conservative. Said he was appalled with Trump holding the bible like a trophy bass for a photo op. Also said he voted for Trump in 2016 and will again in 2020, because “(What real choice is there?)” his parentheses.

I am starting to think that there will be a lot of Republicans that talk the talk with their friends and family, but won’t vote for Trump when they go on the booth. He’s always been a shitshow, but the last 6 months (and the last 5 days) have been enough to push the better of them over the edge.

Alaska GOP Sen. Murkowski not sure she is voting for Trump.

People can vote for all the other races and just skip presidential pick if they don’t like either guy. That happens every time.

Trump got 63 million votes in 2016.

I’m guessing he gets 60 million this time around. Which is quite sad. I’d like it to be lower but I don’t want to get too optimistic.

Generally a candidate doesn’t do as well when its their second term.

I guess it could be as low as 55-60 million votes, but thats a stretch. My assumption is since 2016 was 66 vs 63 million votes with Clinton at 66, the 2020 will be closer to 70 vs 60 million votes with Biden winning.

Kind of sad that no matter how bad he fucks up, at worst he will lose 5-10% of republican voters for it. The other 90-95% will literally vote for him no matter what he does.

It seems like demographic change differences between states might be key, but U.S. Census data may not support that:



           Age    2010   2011   2012   2013   2014   2015   2016   2017   2018
US Total  0-17   24.1%  23.8%  23.6%  23.4%  23.2%  23.0%  22.9%  22.7%  22.5%
US Total 18-34   23.1%  23.2%  23.3%  23.3%  23.3%  23.2%  23.2%  23.1%  23.1%
US Total 35-49   20.5%  20.1%  19.8%  19.5%  19.2%  19.1%  19.0%  19.0%  18.9%
US Total 50-64   19.2%  19.5%  19.6%  19.6%  19.7%  19.7%  19.6%  19.5%  19.4%
US Total   65+   13.1%  13.3%  13.8%  14.2%  14.6%  14.9%  15.3%  15.7%  16.1%

Virginia  0-17   23.5%  23.2%  23.1%  22.9%  22.7%  22.6%  22.5%  22.4%  22.3%
Virginia 18-34   23.1%  23.2%  23.3%  23.3%  23.3%  23.1%  23.0%  22.9%  22.8%
Virginia 35-49   21.4%  20.9%  20.5%  20.2%  19.8%  19.6%  19.5%  19.4%  19.4%
Virginia 50-64   19.7%  20.0%  20.0%  20.0%  20.1%  20.2%  20.2%  20.0%  19.9%
Virginia   65+   12.4%  12.7%  13.2%  13.6%  14.0%  14.4%  14.8%  15.2%  15.7%

Michigan  0-17   23.6%  23.3%  23.0%  22.7%  22.5%  22.3%  22.1%  21.9%  21.7%
Michigan 18-34   21.6%  21.9%  22.1%  22.2%  22.3%  22.4%  22.5%  22.5%  22.6%
Michigan 35-49   20.3%  19.8%  19.4%  19.0%  18.6%  18.4%  18.2%  18.0%  17.9%
Michigan 50-64   20.5%  21.0%  21.0%  21.1%  21.2%  21.2%  21.0%  20.9%  20.6%
Michigan   65+   13.8%  14.1%  14.6%  15.0%  15.4%  15.8%  16.3%  16.7%  17.2%


I agree. I think there were a lot of people who in say… 2004, might have voted for Bush over Kerry, and who voted for Trump over Clinton in 2016, but who realize what a dumpster fire Trump and his administration have been, and vote Biden in 2020 just to get back to something more normal with a <insert any number of Presidential adjectives here> President and administration. Some will do so just to get a functioning Cabinet and upper-level government back in place. Others can’t stand the constant lying and assault on the truth. Still others won’t like his international hostility. And a bunch are probably having their eyes opened in the past six months, and especially in the last couple of weeks with his shambolic response to COVID-19 and deranged response to the George Floyd murder.

But I think they’ll go back and vote for any non-Trump Republican come 2024

Nixon and Reagan had landslides for their 2nd term. Clinton and Obama were not really challenged much for 2nd term. W. Bush squeaked by in 2004 and Sr. Bush lost in 92.

How do you figure? In the past 40 years, there have only been two Presidential candidates that have lost popular vote totals between their first and second runs: George H.W. Bush who faced a vibrant third party challeneger siphoning off votes, and Barack Obama, who just couldn’t match his almost incredible numbers from 2008 in 2012. Even a relatively unpopular George W Bush, suffering from kickback about the Iraq War, gathered 12 million more votes in his second run. Bill Clinton picked up an extra 3 million votes in the Presidential race with the lowest turnout since before the Depression.

Trump does seem to be a very odd case for politicians, but betting on him to lose votes is dicey. The same people who believed his message in 2016 are likely to fear Biden’s message in 2020, even if they don’t feel Trump lived up to his campaign promises.

But you can’t discount those who have died in the past 4 years. Those who have replaced them skew more liberal. Even if the difference is only 10% - and I think it is larger than that - those who are voting for the first time should mean there’s a .5% or slightly smaller anti-trump swing baked in.

The question is how many traditional Reagan Republicans are left in the party, and can the never-Trumpers pull some of them away? I recall George Will in 2016 clearly opposing Trump, now he is not only opposing Trump but encouraging Republicans to go against Republicans in Congress. Now it appears that a number of ex-trump cabinet members are also heading for the exit (I can’t see any way Mattis can backtrack from what he is saying now to endorsing Trump in November).

So how many more never-Trumpers can we see, or has their total already been baked into the 2016 numbers? Maybe some of them go from just not voting for Trump to actually voting Democrat?

If I thought there were a deity who answered prayers like a genie granting wishes, I’d be praying hard right now for a right-leaning independent, or a well-spoken Libertarian candidate to enter the race right now.

Anyone know an out-of-work actor, decently talented, baritone preferably, good hair a plus, a man, probably white would be best, with not a lot in savings, and fewer scruples?

That’s the thing here for conservative voters - the “What real choice is there?” statement - If Biden can speak to them about some of the issues they care about, there is a good chance many will come back from the wilderness Trump has led them into. Biden needs to pull only small numbers of voters back to Blue in only a few key areas that voted Obama but then switched to Trump in 2016.

I would say maybe in the 3% - 5% range will actively vote not-Trump this time around, and that is probably generous. Biden needs to give them a reason to vote for him and not just sit-out the election.

The only worry I have about Donnie’s bad couple of weeks is that they are happening now and not in September - by then some of the current chaos may be in the rear-view and conservative voters may return to being more comfortable voting for him as opposed to against. Gawd, I hope we are not still dealing with COVID, the economy in the dumps, and the protests in September.

I think there’s going to be less voters overall this time. Especially for democrats. People who were excited about the chance a female president went out to vote. Those who weren’t that excited, or hated Hillary (those emails) just stayed home figuring Trump will lose anyway. A lot may feel the same way this time, as Trump is so bad, he’ll definitely lose, so many may not bother voting.