Does Magic Exist?

To steal a bit from SF great Larry Niven: aa great argument against psychic phenomena is that it’s allegedly so rare. It’s too damned useful evolutionarily speaking, for the species to possess the ability to teleport, or beat the snot out of cave bears by force of mind or to start a fire by shooting fireballs out one’s ass for it to be so rare. If the trait works like every. other. human. characteristic. it’s got a genetic component. It has to be inheritable even as a recessive. And, inevitably, we’d have been breeding for it.

Even if the ability is just [sub]barely[/sub] noticable, it’s still useful. Imagine an archer who, by force of mind or magic(k) can make his arrows 5% more accurate. A tracker who can use psychometery to trace an elk 5% better. Hell, soemeone who can make himself just a trifle luckier by thinking real hard and chanting.

Those what got the trait are gonna outsurvive those what don’t by huge margins.

I’m not pretending this’s “proof”, but to me, it’s certainly another datapoint

Fenris

I’m pretty sure there’s a D&D skill that allows this.

Suddenly I’m envisioning people like The Simpsons’ Comic Book Guy sitting behind a computer, wearing a viking helmet, and mumbling things like, “Magic MAY exist!” and “Worst magic spell ever!”

[QUOTE]
*Originally posted by Svinlesha *
glee sez:

My previous sentence read :

  1. Magic
  • we have no physical evidence, despite the fact that people have been making claims for centuries and spending huge amounts of time and money trying to prove it.

Or in the experience of everyone else in the world. As a mathematician, I really don’t think you should use the phrase ‘not equally valid’ to compare the likelihoods of pizza and magic! :smiley:

But there has been centuries of research into magic! If it exists, wouldn’t some evidence have come to light by now? You don’t need to be a scientist to discover something.

As soon as anything can be repeatedly demonstrated, science accepts it. It has nothing to do with metaphysical assumptions (my dictionary defines these as 'the study of the mind…which cannot be studied experimentally), since there would be no physical evidence of these.
Do magic and science will form a hypothesis as to how it works. Instantly, magic becomes scientific. That’s how the scientific method works.
Scientists aren’t a bunch of people like the Mediaeval Church:
‘So, Galileo, you think the Earth is not the centre of the Universe…’

Well I wouldn’t have used that title (as you can see from my polite postings).

I certainly don’t imply that. Look at my last post.
I believe in aliens (elsewhere in the Universe, because of mathematics, not the anecdotal UFO ones!!!). Probability about 99%.
I don’t believe in the Loch Ness monster. Probability about 0.01% (only because I’m a romantic :wink: )
I don’t believe in magic, **because we should have found some evidence by now, with all the people looking for it. **Probability about 0.000001%.

0.000001% is based on a guess as to how many magical experiments have been done. It is not high; it is not an equally valid opinion that magic doesn’t exist (my figures are of course 99.999999% that it doesn’t).

**

I absolutely agree**. I accept that I cannot prove that I am not a demented sexual attacker. Neither can you for that matter. So, if someone were to post the GD topic of “Could Gary ever be a demented sexual attacker.” it would be impossible to prove that I am not, never have been or never will be one. I’d imagine that is why the courts apply the standard of reasonable doubt, rather than absolute certainty.
**

**
Sorry, but here is where I must fundamentally disagree. What you have done through those cases is demonstrate that it is statistically extremely unlikely that anyone currently has some knowledge of magic, or magical ability, or whatever. Things change. We constantly have to revise our beliefs about the universe and physics.
[ul]
[li]“There is not the slightest indication that nuclear energy will ever be obtainable.” Albert Einstein, 1932[/li][li]“Louis Pasteur’s theory of germs is ridiculous fiction.” Pierre Pachet, Professor of Physiology at Toulouse, 1872.[/li][li]“Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible.” Lord Kelvin, president, Royal Society, 1895 [/ul][/li]**

Right again**. But that does not mean you should only apply their logic to support their beliefs. You apply it to both sides. Look at the OP:

Do you really think you can give a 100%, no margin for error answer of “definitely not”?

Something to say, Jab? May I recommend email or the pit.

If someone were to start such a thread, it would be entirely inappropriate for people to respond with “You can’t prove that he’s NOT!” :rolleyes:

Unfortunately, some people just can’t seem to realize this, even after being told several times…

No, but you can give an answer that most sane and sensible people would accept as being an almost-definitely. Common sense is not mathematics, Gary.

**

Let’s see, JAA gives an analogy. I agree with it. And you roll your eyes at me? Why didn’t you raise that concern when JAA first suggested it?

I’m sorry, I didn’t realise there was a rule that said anything repeated several times had to be accepted without further question.

So from now on we only apply common sense rather than logic? This is the same common sense that at previous times has held the world to be flat and air travel to be impossible, right? If we’re no longer capable of making similar mistakes to those made in the past, when did we reach this level of omniscience?

You’ll excuse me if I’m not won over by these points.

JAA’s analogy was to point out that when someone asks for something to be proven, pointing out that it can’t be disproven does NOT necessarily indicate that the thing exists. You are being deliberately obtuse and you know it.

Then why your continued insistance that “Magic may exist”?

Just because you choose to ignore the statements that disregard your arguments, that doesn’t mean your arguments are valid.

I did NOT say that, and I will thank you to keep your ignorance out of my mouth. I said that where logic fails to come up with a definite answer, we rely on common sense.

This from the man who’s entire argument resides on the word “may”.

Gary,

how about my % estimate of the chance magic exists?

Spoofe, I’ll try to make this as clear as I can

I cannot make it any more plain that the analogy you took exception to was first raised by Jab. Furthermore, I agreed with his point. This, in some way, you claim to be me “being deliberately obtuse”?

I have tried to answer every one of the arguments raised at me, and if I’ve missed one please let me know and I’ll address it. As I’m sure you don’t want to be guilty of disregarding arguments, I would be grateful if you could address some of my issues. For starters, can you explain to me why, when people as learned as those quoted above have been wrong on issues of what is and is not possible, we should now be able to address such an issue with absolute certainty.

Why? If there’s no definite answer, surely the correct thing to do is keep an open mind to an issue.

Spoofe, let’s be honest. This argument is likely to circle round and round, ad nauseum. Neither of us is likely to give in or change stance. Surely we should either agree to differ, or take it to email to save the boredom of others?

Gary, since you’re in the mood to answer questions, try these:

  1. Can you perform magic as I have described in this thread?
  2. If not, can you link us with someone who can?
  3. If you can answer “Yes” to either question #1 or #2, can you or this other person show it to us, please?

For the record, I am NOT asking for 100% proof of the existance of “Magic”. I am merely asking for some solid evidence.
ANY solid evidence.

Got Magic?

Certainly Czar, although I believe I’ve answered these already.

  1. No
  2. No

Hey, has someone cast invisibility on me? :eek:

Gary, what about my maths?

What better way to see if magic exists than by doing the spells yourself? I would feel like an idiot doing these, but if anyone else wants to…

These are from a website linked on Portal of Evil:

To change your eye color (temporarily, of course)

To levitate

Sleeping spell (this one might turn you into a permanent sleeper since you’re expected to let the candle burn all the way down)

Hello glee, sorry for the delay.

You give magic a 0.000001% probability, on the basis that “we should have found some evidence by now”. You then give alien life a 99% probability, even though Fermi’s paradox uses exactly the same underlying logic that you used to discount the likelihood of magic existing(or more precisely, it says the evidence should have found us by now).

Do you not view that as contradictory?

I do not think there’s any real way of calculating an accurate probability for this. Carl Jung said it well

You disagree that magick has been repeatedly falsified? Are you serious?

[quote]
**[ul]
[li]“There is not the slightest indication that nuclear energy will ever be obtainable.” Albert Einstein, 1932[/li][li]“Louis Pasteur’s theory of germs is ridiculous fiction.” Pierre Pachet, Professor of Physiology at Toulouse, 1872.[/li][li]“Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible.” Lord Kelvin, president, Royal Society, 1895 [/ul][/li][/quote]
**You know why these guys were wrong? Because they lacked essential information that had yet to be discovered and verified experimentally. But the difference between these claims and the claim that magic is real is that these were NEW claims. Little, if any, experimentation had been done at the times these claims were made. OTOH, magic has been attempted time and time again for millennia and we still lack empirical evidence that magic exists.

Can you (or anyone else) give a 100%, no margin for error answer of “definitely yes”?

Jab1: thanks for the link to Cecil’s column. Very interesting. As to your response, you’re assuming that I’m assuming a direct effect. I’m well aware of ISL, as well as basic physical principles that argue against a direct effect.

But if I can physically grab an object, say a sturdy pole, and move an otherwise unmovable (by myself alone) 400lb. boulder by utilizing the mechanical advantage of a lever, then I admit the possibilty of mentally grabbing a preexisting natural energy and directing it to do my work (lift a boulder, start a fire) for me.

This is not to say that I actually believe that this is currently being done, which brings me to Czarcasm’s reply.

The reason I didn’t conduct any research into the subject is simple: I don’t believe that this phenomena is in use by human beings at this time. It might be, but I seriously doubt it.

Why? Because, as others have noted, somebody certainly would have sat up and taken notice by now, and there would have been some more research conducted on the subject.

If it is happening right now, a couple of plausible reasons why no one has come forward might be:

1. Fear of persecution; either as a freak, a loon, a menace to society, or as a lab rat (made to “disappear” to be locked away at Groom Lake for the rest of your life).

2. Conspiracy of silence by the International Brotherhood of Mages, Sages, Wizards and Sorcerers. To keep this powerful and arcane knowledge safe until mankind can deal with it responsibly (okay, so I’ve read some cheesy fiction. Sue me.)

3. It’s a natural talent of only a small percentage of the population and it requires some practice, some methodology, to develop into a working ability. Thus there might pass entire generations w/o anyone actually doing this stuff for real. IOW: we’re in a dry spell of magic-using types.

4. The practice requires such a radically different mind-set that any practioners, or anyone close to becoming practioners, are idenified as “mentally unstable” and institutionalized.

Admitting the possibility of the existence of currently undefined areas of knowledge, or of potential avenues of human development, is a far cry from saying that I actually believe that these areas or avenues will come to be. I’m not about to cash out my 401k and sink it into “Magitronics Research & Development”.

And fiscal reluctance notwithstanding, I’d rather not assign “probabilities” to either of these areas; to my way of thinking, that may artificially limit us. Preclude us from fully realizing all of our potentials, or close off possibilities because someone thinks “that’s impossible”. As someone else noted, a lot of previously “impossible” things have come to pass and are accepted as routine.

What is Fermi’s paradox?

People have been earnestly testing for magic for centuries.
We haven’t explored much of our Solar System yet, let alone the rest of the Universe.

Well there probably isn’t. But you said earlier:

‘Give evidence that magic exists. No one has done this…
Prove it doesn’t exist…
Do you accept this? If you do, then all that’s left is individual opinions, each with equal validity…’

As a mathematician, I wanted to put that into context. OK, you object to a 0% probability of magic (I agree, we can’t usually prove a negative). But I strongly disagree that the existence of magic is a 50% chance. Isn’t my figure far more accurate than yours?

Gary: glee referred to life in the universe, while Fermi’s paradox applies mostly to life within the galaxy.

Fermi’s paradox: Developed during the Manhattan Project, over dinner. It was the consensus that there had to be (non-terrestrial) life in the galaxy, given the shear number of stars. Fermi proposed a paradox: given that, where are the aliens? It’s been calculated that even at sublight speeds, it would take only about 50 million years to colonize the galaxy. Thus, if there were intelligent extraterrestrials, we would know about them.

Distances between galaxies are much bigger though.

glee: Do you think non-specialists should forgo assigning probabilities beyond, say, 95%? Absent my knowledge of Fermi’s paradox, I might be inclined to assign a 99% probability to the existence of extra-solar intelligent life in the Milky Way galaxy. And this assignment would be inappropriate.

Gary: I think it might be simpler just to say that we don’t know anything with 100.00000000000000% probability. But this is really a fairly trivial observation.

Loch Ness fans unite! Nessie rules at 0.01%!!!

Fermi’s Paradox