One of the posts in a MPSIMS thread mentioned the Yellowstone supervolcano, which, if it erupted, would cut down on the global population significantly and retard human progress amid cultural chaos for probable centuries.
Cecil’s article on the subject mentions others across the globe. Now, I realize that, per that article, the likelihood of this happening within the lifetime of anyone living today is rather slim (the USGS itself wonders if there will be “ever” another eruption there). Further, I get the impression that the idea of anything being “overdue” in a geological sense is actually rather absurd.
Still, we have plenty of threads that talk about going to the stars and our future development as a race and such. So ignoring for now all the stuff about FTL and what have you that usually comes up in those threads, does the existence of supervolcanoes, by themselves, limit how far we can go as a race? Feel free to factor in the possibility of technological advances that would “defuse” them, and how long you think that’d take to develop.
Humanity is too widely spread. Yellowstone blowing wouldn’t have too much an effect (relatively) on Brazil, for instance. Similarly, if Taupo in New Zealand blows, then NZ is pretty much toast. Yes, it will suck for a year or two, but super-eruptions are not extinction level events. And, as I understand it, Yellowstone blowing wouldn’t directly affect the West Coast of America. Further, after a few years, all that volcanic ash will make for super-fertile farming land.
However, as you indicate, there are the geopolitical implications. If we have a ‘year without a summer’ as in 1415 - or several - and China or India start to starve, will they see this as a benefit - reducing their populations to more manageable levels - or will they try to seize food?
I don’t know. The entire North American continent covered with four inches of ash (no more crops, planes can’t fly, internal combustion engines would all choke up) and a thousand-year-long ice age – sounds like bye-bye civilization to me.
We just need a strategic ice cube reserve. Ice cubes counteract lava… right? No? Okay then, we can blow up the volcanoes with atomic bombs. Wha? OK sdmarty pants, they contained chernoble, they can contain a volcano. Probly only needs to be twice the size of hoover damn. And I’m sure if we were all really in danger the duct tape company would pitch in, which kind of renders it all a moot point. OK OK bnut really, if civilization advanced enough, it’s not inconceivable we could detect pressure build-up and use strategic underground nuclear weapons to release the pressure before any catastrophic happens. That’s not so hard to believe, is it?
But as I said, even then, there would be widespread upheaval and death outside the Americas even so. That would certainly retard the progress of civilization everywhere. But would it be enough so that they wouldn’t get far enough to prevent the next eruption? Or to get to the flying car (finally!) stage?
No. All of mankind’s technological progress has come in a tiny fraction of time since the last supervolcano eruption. Given the entire interval between eruptions and the giant head start of whatever technology survives the eruption, we will certainly be able to exceed whatever we have created in this interval.
It’s my understanding that one of the larger Yellowstone eruptions would reach the entire west half of the country; basically draw a line through the nation up from the east edge of Texas up into Canada; everything west of that gets hit hard or outright devastated. And weather would be affected worldwide.
Also, buildings collapse under the ash. Ash is heavy; it’s basically powdered rock.
What’s the density per square inch of ash vs wet snow? It usually takes 2-3 feet of ice and snow combined to collapse the roof of a home, so is ash that much more dense that only a few inches would do the same?
I found a page on the subject here. Also mentioned here, I’ll quote it since it’s the same depth of four inches that was in the comment I was responding to:
Okay. I’m not great at math, so you might need to make corrections, but it looks like wet snow is ~50lbs/square foot (one cite said up to 62.5lbs, but let’s go with the figure here at 50lbs) and a square yard is the same as nine feet square - this is the part where I’m iffy. Is that right? - so it’s 450lbs/square yard then?
But anyway, it looks like wet ash would be pretty damn bad for the roof too.
A square yard is nine square feet (a square one yard, or three feet, on a side; 3 x 3 = 9), not nine feet square (nine feet on a side, which is 81 square feet).
North America would be toast if Yellowstone were to erupt. As someone one upthread pointed out: there’s more to civilization than North America.
The question everyone outside of North America must ask themselves is: with all that sulphur dioxide in the atmosphere, how well will we survive five or six years without a growing season?