After all, a lot of the discussion up until now focused on how the downturn may help Obama, by associating the economy with the current Republican administration? If the stock market is more moderate from here on in (as in not nearly as huge ups and downs), I think the big jump will be the last thing people remember, and will focus on that. So far, it seems so; at least one poll I’ve seen touted as “highly accurate” (the “IBD/TIPP poll” - I think the former is “Investor Business Daily”) has McCain now within two points of Obama (sorry, no link; the reference had no link either).
If it does help, how long will such a feeling last?
Unitl people remember that hey are still upside down on their mortgage; that the mortgage fiasco isn’t over; that they still can’t get credit; that Christmas is still coming, that they still might get laid off…
In other words the market rebound is good for shaky investors. For everyone else not so much.
I think any person whose choice in who to lead us over the next four years changes daily based upon how the market is doing that particular afternoon is so short sighted he makes the guy from Memento look like Nostradamous.
No, the Dow is still down 25% year to date. What people are going to remember are their quarterly investment statements that started hitting mailboxes last week.
I see no reason why the market will become less volatile in the next few weeks.
National polls show Obama with a 5 to 13 point margin.
Considering how volatile the markets are, and the way they’ve been swinging up and down wildly, anyone who starts feeling secure because they closed up one day in a row simply hasn’t been paying attention. I’d feel more secure betting my money on a roulette wheel.
As Stuffy alluded to, the broader stock market is only one element in people’s economic lives. Even assuming market stability (which I don’t personally believe will materialize for awhile), not much has fundamentally changed in people’s lives since last Friday. I check my 401(k) statements twice a year, but I check my bank account balance twice a month.
A 900 point day is not a good thing. We have gone from 200 point swings to 400 point swings to 900 point swings; this kind of volatility is jusst not a good sign for the economy. It means that investors are nervous, and don’t know what to do, so they are over-reacting to every little piece of news that comes along. Sooner or later, the wheels just fall off, and the market will stay at the bottom for a while before it slowly crawls out over a period of years. Everybody wants to declare we are off the bottom, but I predict we have a ways to go yet, maybe it will stabilize around 7000 or so, then we can start the slow climb out of the hole we are in.
Came in to say just that. An extreme jump is not a healthy jump, just as the extreme plunges were not healthy. The market could plunge again tomorrow as investors try to get out while the index is up. Everyone knows the economy is unhealthy, and wild jumps to and fro are indicative of such. One good day isn’t going to help it, just like people were worried about the economy before the DOW started to tank.
Would cutting the capital gains tax save us all?
Who knows?
Is waffling on shit like this during crisis one of the signs of a steady hand on the tiller?
No, it is not.
I doubt market hiccups will affect the election much either way at this point. The meltdown was too recent and too dramatic. That $700 billion tab for the bail-out, ditto. If the market does begin to settle down–and it’s down to a few weeks now–I think the most people will attribute it to the bail-out finally taking effect as promised. “Hell, we paid enough. Better have bought some stability. Harumph.”
No matter what, few will forget (or be allowed to, either) McCain’s high-profile fiasco: “Gonna suspend my campaign until this gosh-darn economic crisis is fixed! Country before politics!”
Of course he quite obviously neither suspended his campaign nor solved the crisis. His grandstanding backfired, badly, another lasting impression whenever the dreaded E word comes up. Then came his hastily cobbled-together plan for mortgage purchases which even stalwart financial conservatives openly criticized. McCain’s been all over the map on the economy, way too much for market swings to overcome.
The economy tanking is just one of the things that supposedly hurt McCain. I say supposedly because I don’t think the higher poll amounts showing for him after the naming of Palin was reality.
I may not like Obama but that doesn’t mean he isn’t bringing something new to the table, I hate the spreading the wealth idea, but it sure looks better than top down we have been living in. What plan does McCain have again? I can remember a little bit about the economic plan Obama put forward but nothing from McCain. I am sure he does have a plan, but that plan got pushed aside in favor of character assassination plans.