And Trump’s wife is very good at using the works of other without crediting the same too.
So, yeah, replying to myself to note that events of the past day have merely reaffirmed just how silly and mismanaged this marketing trick is.
JohnT: You seem to be making lots of silly assumptions of how to interpret the clock and then blaming those who manage the clock for your wacky interpretation. In particular, you seem to be assuming it is a linear scale of probability based on a 24-hour day. I don’t think that either of these assumptions is very good. I am not sure if those who manage the clock have ever tried to get very quantitative about what it represents but there is certainly no reason to believe that your quantitative interpretation is anything near what they have in mind.
There is no “assuming” there is a 24-hour day… it is inherent within the analogy and the marketing. “2 minutes before midnight” is, in fact, a statement which only makes sense within a “24-hour day” context.
If you* don’t want people to take the clock analogy seriously, then don’t use a clock analogy.
*the royal you
The average person thinks of 2 minutes of midnight as being pretty damn close to the end of the day. I don’t think he thinks of 1 minute before midnight as only fractionally closer than 2 minutes before, the thinks of it as being twice as close as two minutes was.
As long as we don’t get hung up in the weeds about the length of the day and what fraction of a day has elapsed, it works fine. We’re close to the edge of the end if the species, and going from 11:56 to 11:57 is significant.
To mix our metaphors, a “doomsday clock” which is always crying wolf eventually means nothing and becomes irrelevant.
Since I’m offering unsolicited opinions here, the thing should fluctuate, weekly, between 6pm and midnight. The fact that the election of Donald Trump moves it ahead by “30 seconds”, and this week doesn’t move it at all, again, to me, shows it is poorly thought out and handled.
And, lastly (because I have enjoyed calling this thing dumb for 25+ years and will definitely be one of my “grandpa is ranting again” points in another 25+), if the clock doesn’t really measure anything in any sort of objective manner, then what’s the point? :rolleyes:
…And keep Doc Brown away from the clock tower.
Yep. It’s “Wolf”, “*Wolf”
- “WOLF!!”, "Wolf. "
Where wolf?
There wolf.
They’re going to need to add a seconds hand pretty soon.
Tillerson: “Ignore POTUS.”
Of course it might be better if Mattis had said it, but that would be a whole different problem.
Indeed. JohnT seems to be insistent that his wacky interpretation is the only logical one. However, he seems to be the only one who interprets it this way.
Yes. The original Doomsday Clock was just a P.R. move to alert us to nuclear dangers. Since then, they move the hands now and then just to attract further publicity. Still, it is worthwhile to remind us of dangers.
America’s new love for Orwellian fake news is a very unfortunate development. This shows another reason why. (Yes, AWDNews may not be American — who finances it?)
Contrary to those worthy scientists who set hands on the Domesday Clock, I’ve always felt the collapse of the USSR increased, rather than decreased the danger of nuclear war.
America has a real political dilemma on its hands. Soon, Pence will probably be President and he’ll complete the destruction of environmental protections, human rights, and the middle class that Trump is too incompetent to accomplish. OTOH, a military catastrophe will be much less likely under Pence. Personally, I’d want to gamble on Trump till at least the 2018 elections since turmoil within the GOP can only help the American electorate choose correctly.
If that was how clocks work, that would be OK. But nobody sees a clock go from 9:58 to 9:59, saying “wow, we’re 50% closer to 10:00!” That, literally, makes no sense and has happened in the history of never.
Again, since you seem to not get my point, the DD clock is a metaphor. However, if, as you insist, it’s not supposed to represent time at all (or even represent a clock) then why use a clock as your metaphor?
Sorry, but my “bizarre” interpretation is set firmly in how clocks and metaphors work. The DD clock, as it is currently.managed, fails miserably at both.
And, lastly, a simple review of this thread will show I am not the only one who thinks the DD clock is worthless. Please, keep it real, JShore.
Yeah, but the metaphor seems to fail if the only thing that can set the clock at any point before 11:50 or whatever is the total destruction of all nuclear weapons. And even then, as long as the knowledge exists, the clock can’t be set before, say, 11 pm.
So what’s the point of having the clock be that fine?
Exactly. The way they use this thing destroys its value as a metaphor and, therefore, gives us no valid information at all.
Like I said: A marketing stunt, poorly thought out and badly handled.
Because we’re currently only dealing with a very small portion of history since the clock started. The metaphor is that humanity’s 24 hours on Earth are almost up.
Or, at least, that what I always thought. I’ve not looked into it or anything.
As for the OP: given Trump’s response to North Korea, we are probably in more danger of a nuclear doomsday since at least 1990. And, what’s worse, this was fucking predictable, and exactly what we warned against before the election.
Does anyone even pay attention to the thing anymore? It’s a Cold War relic, at best. But now I think someone needs to publish the definitive History of Never. 
