I note from this BBC article that the Doomsday clock has been adjusted again.
The time now stands at six minutes to midnight.
Is this timekeeping an arbitary decision of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (BAS) or is there an algorithm of some kind that determines the time?
It seems to me that there has been some logic to the changes over the years, but no justification seems to have been presented regarding the magnitude of the changes.
Yes.
The complete press release is a bit more detailed than what the media posts about it.
The press release is a longwinded way of saying “completely arbitrary.”
I don’t agree, theres a lot of concrete info in the press release and yes things are looking more hopeful.
Go read “the Watchmen” maybe you’ll appreciate what they are trying to do with the doomsday clock more. (the graphic novel, not the film).
Doesn’t the doomsday clock just increase tensions more especially if it is really late? For example NK tests a nuke and then a rocket launch that actually works and isn’t photoshopped. The clock would get moved forward. Wouldn’t that just heighten tensions if anything. Not that the government cares about the clock but the public might and the public could put pressure on the government. My god what have these scientists done!
It is completely arbitrary.
There is no specific algorithm.
It’s essentially an easy way of periodically creating a media event to make a point.
The current time is completely arbitrary and the direction and amount of change are completely arbitrary, as are the choices of what to commend and what to condemn.
As an example, one of the doomsday issues that drives clock adjustments is climate change, and part of the decision to move the clock back was based on the idea that we’ve made some progress there. Yep; sure we have. A little more progress of the kind we’ve had so far, and if the AGW alarmists are correct, we’re doomed.
They sure like President Obama, though.
http://thebulletin.org/content/media-center/announcements/2010/01/14/it-6-minutes-to-midnight
I think “educated guess” is a better term.
If it were completely arbitrary then that implies they are just randomly putting the clock wherever they feel like willy-nilly. Just spin the dial and see where it lands.
Arbitrary is not the same as Random.
Arbirtary implies judgement is used.
Arbitrary in the sense of “I said so” or “because.” That’s how they decide.
Not one person in a thousand could tell you what the clock says so it’s meaningless to the public. I’ve been aware of the clock for 30 or 40 years, but before this thread I couldn’t tell you what time it was set on or even if they were still doing it. Nuclear weapons are not an issue of concern to today’s world the way they were in the 50s or 60s.
If scientists had any clout, global warming would be more important than Jon and Kate. It’s laughable to think that an obscure publication could raise tensions.
When you think about it, it’s pretty ludicrous.
A clock is supposed to tell you how long until something, or how long after something. This clock tells you…how long since the last time it was this long before…something. And then, if it looks good, or bad, it goes back to before when they were this long before…or after.
It’s an advertising gimmick for themselves, and a political statement, nothing more.
hh
True.
It’s also a metaphor.
Just an opinion: what’s always bothered me about the Doomsday Clock is that the most optimistic setting possible is 15 minutes before midnight; still not much time at all. It’s as if they’re saying “there’s no hope at all, period”.
I think what they’re saying is that no matter how good it looks now, it could get real ugly real fast. I agree with that sentiment. Nothing is forever.
Not true. From 1991 to 1995, the clock stood at 17 minutes to midnight: Doomsday Clock Timeline