The "Doomsday Clock"—what do they do with it if there's a limited nuclear war?

The “Doomsday Clock”—the symbolic meter of the proximity to global catastrophe (“Midnight”), usually imagined as nuclear war and the end of the world, maintained by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. Currently at 90 seconds to midnight, as of this writing.

Something I’ve always wondered, though—and especially if someone actually has a contingency plan for—is: what’s the plan if there’s a limited nuclear war, but not a civilization-ending (or science magazine publication ending) one?

Say, Ruritania and Berzerkistan get into a scrap over the Banoi Archipelago, leading to the use of ten tactical nuclear weapons, split between each side, almost entirely in battlefield use, before the fighting grinds to a halt with a ceasefire and a formal armistice. 'Takes about a week. None of the permanent members of the UN Security Council (the major nuclear powers) are even anything more than tangentially involved.

Obviously horrifying and bad, likely with far-reaching geopolitical consequences, but most of the world escapes intact, and physically unaffected. So…what do the fellows manning the Clock do, next? Just move it closer but not to Doomsday, or is it time for a more indepth rebranding, so they can update the official merch before the holiday shopping season?

My WAG is that they would move it to like 2 seconds to midnight during that week and they’d dial it back as things cooled.

They only move it once a year after a conference. From their information: “The Bulletin 's Clock is not a gauge to register the ups and downs of the international power struggle.” It also takes climate change into consideration, not just hostilities. However, 90 seconds to midnight is the closest it has ever been.

How is midnight defined? I hear “global catastrophe” and “civilization-ending apocalypse,” although I can’t find an actual definition on the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists’ website.

I’ll follow up on your question about a small-scale tactical launch. What if a full-size nuclear bomb destroys a major city, is that midnight? If the US and Russia wipe each other out but other world governments remain intact, is that enough? If the only people left are some self-sufficient and functioning societies on some remote islands, can we say that civilization hasn’t been completely destroyed?

I suspect the answer is that as long as there is a Bulletin around to update it, then we aren’t at midnight yet. But I’m interested if there’s a definitive answer.

I’ma thinkin that ain’t gonna be a major concern.