“I’m winning every state, by a lot.”
Special elections I looked at were not heavily polled, or polled at all. The Democrats did do well compared to historical data.
I think that, as usual, state and local polling will be less accurate than national polls. Any special election polls were in that state and local category.
Sure, that’s why it happened.
In a small piece of PA news: Former Sen. Pat Toomey (R-PA) [told CNBC that he would not vote for Donald Trump or Kamala Harris in the presidential election. I know, a former Republican has nothing to lose, but it’s interesting.
When is his stupid Fox News thing again?
He had the town hall earlier, here are some details so you don’t have to watch it. It was a prerecorded event from the morning.
The Hill: 5 takeaways from Trump’s town hall with Hannity
Supposedly there were audience questions as well, though they won’t air until tonight.
I don’t doubt this was carefully choreographed and probably even edited, since it didn’t air live.
And this is why Harris was smart to laugh off the idea of a debate on Fox News:
The audience for Wednesday’s town hall could have easily been mistaken for that of a Trump rally.
The former president entered the arena to thunderous applause and chants of “USA” and “Trump.”
“Nice crowd,” Trump remarked with a smile as he sat down at the start of the event.
The audience cheered practically all of Trump’s comments and shouted out in disapproval at the mention of Harris or the Biden administration’s policies.
“This is a very tough interview,” Hannity quipped at one point.
The raucous environment reflects the kind of crowd Trump may have hoped for when he first proposed holding a debate with Harris with a full studio audience. The former president thrives off of the energy of the crowd, something his Democratic opponents sought to deprive him of in insisting the general election debates be held without an audience.
It was a farce, as you’d expect.
Ah, thanks. I’d been wondering at the lack of commentary, but I thought it was going to be aired live.
So we don’t know yet if, as I expected, there’d be at least implications that Harris agreed to be there but “backed out”?
You know what’s bad for a campaign? Leaks. So you want to prevent them from happening, and letting people know you’re leaking sounds bad.
And Trump seems to have given up on New Hampshire.
Another post inspired a question: there’s always been a certain ratio of Trump’s voters between “passionate MAGA, vote for him because he’s a god-king” and “eh, has R next to his name.” How do you think that ratio has changed over time and two previous elections? It could very well impact this one.
Good question. If I had to guess, I’d say 55% of Trump voters were God-king types in 2016, 70% in 2020, and now it’s somewhere in between – let’s go with 62%.
The current MAGA plan may work, but dodging abortion will be tricky. Do you folks think that focusing on young men will be enough to counter more women voting for Harris?
Conway maybe should have reworded this line: “As I told him recently,” she added, “He beat a woman before. He can beat a woman again.”
It’d be better if it were an ad from DeSantis or Vance! 
So many times I see these normal Republicans telling Trump to tone it down. But he then would look bored, weak, and scripted. His whole brand is based on appealing to people who feel looked down on, and the way he does it is by getting looked down on himself. That’s why he repeatedly says stuff like:
“See how much they attack me? They’re attacking you”
Feeling looked down on is super common for both men and women. I feel a bit looked down on here, which is no biggie because I have other places in my life to get affirmation. I think this gives me a little, say 10 percent, of the feeling Trumpers have.
There is more than one type of Trump voters, but I think a lot of them would be lost to him if he lost that persona. Kellyanne is a campaign expert, but he may be smarter about this than Republicans like her that want him to tone it down (for example, she was against bringing in Vance).
What would happen to his support if people started noticing a new gentler Trump? They then would not longer feel he was one of them. He might have even less chance of winning than he has now.
P.S. Some of this post is inspired by a book I am finishing (Late Admissions: Confessions of a Black Conservative). I don’t recommend the book. But I learned something when the author admits loving to hear Trump talk even though he knows DJT is a charlatan. And I think it is about the author living in an environment (Brown University Economics Department) where you can feel looked down on if your views are too far outside the norm, as are his.
This is a really interesting point. In an NYT interview today, Michelle Goldberg talked about the sense of vindication that some women had seeing Harris dominate Trump’s space and play him like a tool in the debate (which is actually an important policy point if you want a president who is not easily manipulated)— especially after watching Trump stalk Clinton around the town hall in 2016.
I can absolutely see how people who feel disrespected for their cultural or religious views get a real kick out of seeing a “rich and powerful” man punch down. They see someone who tells it like it is, or at least tells it how it seems to them. I bet you’re right that his endless pugnacious airing of grievances is a selling point for a lot of his voters.
Of course, I wish more of those folks could see the rank contempt he holds them in, how much of his schtick is gross brutality and punching down, and from there to his frankly ridiculous incompetence and the danger of giving him any real power.
And for what it’s worth, I really appreciate your perspective, @PhillyGuy. I read your posts closely because I know you often say something thoughtful from a perspective that’s different from mine, and that’s really valuable.
Yeah, I rarely, if ever, agree with @PhillyGuy, and often roll my eyes at him, but I do value his perspective on things.
Looks like the Trump supporters are beginning to tear each other apart as they point fingers for his poor performance:
They never stopped, this has been going on for 8 years. It’s all the kids fighting because they want Dad’s attention.
Wow. Has any Republican ever, in public, accused Lindsey of being gay? I know there’s always been lots of whispers but I don’t recall anyone saying it out loud. I guess that being so close to Trump now, she thinks she can say anything the way he does. And I’m sure Trump is having a good laugh over it. Well, Lindsey, you made your bed.
Are we fully, 100%, no doubt about it, sure that Loomer isn’t a genius Democrat plant?