Donald Trump: How did such a nutcase get so rich?

[md2000]

@CookingWithGas

Malcolm Gladwell’s Outliers is an interesting look at how successful people are predispositioned to be successful by virtue of initial conditions. He starts out by noting that a disproportionate number of pro hockey players are born at a certain time of the year, giving them an advantage in youth hockey leagues growing up. I don’t happen to buy his whole theory; for example, he claims that Bill Gates’s success was due to a unique opportunity to access computers at a young age, and some very fortuitous dealings with IBM regarding MS-DOS. But as many of you have said, not everyone recognizes the unique opportunities they have nor knows how to capitalize on them if they did.

However, when one’s success is due to financial dealings, much of that success can often be attributed to random factors that are out of anyone’s control. The book The Drunkard’s Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives looks at success of investment fund managers, for example. The apparent success of many don’t hold up to analysis over the long term; claims of success tend to cherry pick short-term victories. I have not studied Trump’s record in any detail but when your net worth is that volatile it doesn’t indicate a winner, IMHO.

Gladwell has been criticised, early and often, for glossing over details to make fact fit theory. The 10,000 hour rule, for example, is only part of the story.

Bill Gates may have had 10,000 hours of programming experience by college, but there’s only a few companies even close to Microsoft, and even fewer emerging today. Despite what we say about Billy he did write MS Basic from scratch, made it fit in 8K, compiled the assembler code by hand because he did not have a computer, punched it by hand on teletype paper tape, and took it to a computer show where it actually ran first time. There’s some serious talent involved, practice just makes perfect.

Similarly, Paul McCartney seems to have had a serious talent for writing songs and melodies, not everyone with a decade of intensive practice can compose that well. (The movie “Amadeus” comes to mind here)

There is a component called “talent” which not everyone has. There’s also a component called luck, or timing. That talent fits exactly what is needed at the time.

As I posted earlier, there’s a knack or talent called “salesmanship” which is a typical route to getting rich. It seems to me it’s a bit of empathy, to understand the customer, a bit of ego to believe some of your own hype (since nothing succeeds like confidence), and a bit of sociopathy, to push onto them what satisfies your agenda rather than the customer’s and not be bothered doing it. Trump has this talent, and he also had the practice - having daddy’s millions to help him get started and avoid certain potholes in the road.

True, too, it was timing. The original Trump towers were a bit of genius. He finished with mostly the cheapest fixtures and materials, since the first thing a multimillionaire does with a condo is gut it and rebuild the interior. (Hopefully somewhat tastefully, not in gaudy tacky noveaux-riche fake baroque gilding like Trump’s penthouse on Apprentice)

The other ventures he has participated in, the way he sells his name, he is a pretty good salesman. However, like his tacky penthouse, it’s all superficial bluster, not a deep and lasting understanding of long term strategy to build value.