If Democrats did cross over, his pollster is still an idiot for not accounting for that.
If Democrats can legally vote in the election, then the polls have to include Democrats. You of course weight the poll depending on what you expect turnout to look like, but the raw numbers should still be showing you something unusual, and you’d want to warn your candidate about that if you’re seeing it.
There’s a lot of incumbents in 2010 who jumped on the Tea Party bandwagon, most notably Michelle Bachmann. Few of those incumbents were Tea Partiers.
I keep telling you guys, but you don’t believe me, that the Tea Party movement is about reform as much as about far right conservatism. There are very few Republican incumbents who the Tea party wouldn’t like to see replaced. Especially in the leadership.
If this happened once, it can happen again. Has Ohio held their primaries yet? I bet Boehner’s doing internal polling about now if not.
Texas has a long way to go before turning blue. Romney beat OBama there by 16 points. Demographic change doesn’t happen THAT fast. You’re looking at 20 years, at least, before Texas is even purple, and that assumes too much about the effect of demographic change.
I really haven’t been following the issue too much, but was it the recent rash of stories about ‘illegal aliens are being trucked in’ that did Cantor in?