If you are dealt three-of-a-kind, is it better strategy to draw two cards or do you keep four cards and draw one card.
Thoughts:
Drawing one card, it disguises your hand as opposed to drawing two cards. One card means that you could have two pair, or a draw to a flush or a straight. If you draw two, you are advertising that you have trips, particularly if you raised, pre-draw.
if you draw two cards, you have a better chance of making four-of-a-kind. the chance of making a full house is pretty much equal, if not exactly equal (assuming you don’t make quads).
In terms of your chance of winning the pot, quads will win more pots than full houses, but i doubt if it is a lot more.
Long term, I think drawing one card to trips will win more money than drawing two cards as it disguise your hand.
FTR, If I was playing video poker at a casino, I would draw two cards every time.
They don’t cover bluffs, though, which is essentially what the OP is proposing. He already knows that drawing two gives you better odds than drawing one, but the drawback is that you advertise your hand. And I’m not sure it’s possible to tabulate the advantage or disadvantage in that sort of knowledge.
In draw poker, depending on the exact nature of the rules and the opponents, it can often be not so much about getting the best hand, but about representing the best hand. The optimal draw strategy depends in large part on your evaluation of what your opponent is drawing to, and whether your opponent is good enough to be paying attention to what you’re drawing to.
Draw poker has died as a serious game because it’s often just a crapshoot, and once all the players are good enough to understand how to play, it becomes a tough game to get a real edge in.
Let me give you an example: Say you draw one card - the hand you’re representing is most likely a straight draw or a flush draw. A good player will know that you therefore either hit a 4:1 longshot, or you’ve got nothing at all. The other hand you might have is two pair, and the odds are even worse that you’ll make a full house. In that case, a player with three of a kind or two big pair has to believe he has the best hand.
So… A good player holding three of a kind might draw only one card to represent a draw, and trap a player who goes at him with a single pair or two pair.
A lot depends on the level of your opponents; if they are thinking only of their own hands it is futile to try to trick them, if they are capable of thinking about what you might have it is necessary to sometimes mix up your play.
So … most of the time you should make the draw that gives you the best chance to improve … pretty much always against weak players and probably around 2/3 of the time against better players. Drawing two to trips (instead of drawing one) gives you about double the chance of improving, so is the play to make most of the time.
Generally, the time to draw 1 to trips is when you are against a player who is good enough to think about what you have and you have reason to beleive he has two pair, such as when he has open raised, you reraise, and he draws one. Most good players don’t open raise with a draw so you can be pretty sure he has two pair … now if you draw one behind him, you may convince him that you also have two pair and get him to bet if he has a big Aces up and you can raise him, or at least get him to call your bet if he has some smaller two pair.
Against weaker players, just go ahead and draw two almost all the time … because they think a two card draw means you have a pair with an Ace kicker (that’s how they play) … although most of the time, you will not hold a kicker when you do raise with a pair (again, usually make the poorer draw of holding the kicker when you are pretty sure your opponent has two pair or perhaps if is he is a super aggressive type who will always bet into you if you draw three.)
If the pot is big (betting was capped and/or multiple players in there for raises) forget about fooling anybody, just go for your best chance to improve and draw two.
[QUOTE=Turble;12174247 Drawing two to trips (instead of drawing one) gives you about double the chance of improving, so is the play to make most of the time.
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I have to disagree with this statement that it doubles your chance of improvement.
Card #1 has a 1 in 46 chance of improvement (2.22%)
Assuming Card #1 did not improve
Card #2 has a 1 in 45 chance (6.67%) of making quads and a 3 in 45 chance of filling up by matching the first card drawn. A total of 8.89% chance of improvement
If you keep a kicker, the odds of making quads are 1 in 46 and a 3 in 46 chance of filling up or 8.70% chance of improvement.
Basically my question in the OP, is the extra 0.2% chance of hand improvement worth advertising that you have three of a kind by drawing two cards? Assuming that you bet or raise before the draw, I see no reason (other than bluffing) to draw 2 cards other than having three of a kind.
Card #1 has a 1 in 47 chance of improvement (2.13%)
Assuming Card #1 did not improve
Card #2 has a 1 in 46 chance (6.38%) of making quads and a 3 in 46 chance of filling up by matching the first card drawn. A total of 8.51% chance of improvement
If you keep a kicker, the odds of making quads are 1 in 47 and a 3 in 47 chance of filling up or 8.65% chance of improvement.
Basically my question in the OP, is the extra 0.15% chance of hand improvement worth advertising that you have three of a kind by drawing two cards? Assuming that you bet or raise before the draw, I see no reason (other than bluffing) to draw 2 cards other than having three of a kind.
Wouldn’t you have a 1 in 47 chance of getting 4 of a kind, and a 3 in 47 chance of getting a full house? That’s a 4 in 47 chance of improving.
If you draw 2 cards, you have a 1 in 23.5 chance of getting 4 of a kind, and still roughly 1 in 16 chance of getting a full house, so roughly a 5 in 47 chance of improving.
If you’re drawing two cards, the first of those two can’t get you a full house, since you’d only have four cards at that point. You don’t get the full house until you draw the second card.
So it’s 8.5% vs 10% … a meaningful amount in a card game … professional poker and BJ players make a living with that edge … meaningful enough that making the inferior play should only be done a small amount of the time … just often enough that observant players can’t be certain of your hand.
I’m not a poker player, so take this with a large “dosage of salt”, but I was surprised responses didn’t emphasize certain details. For example, isn’t it often impossible to confuse 2-pair with four-flush? If the betting were weak enough for four-flush to call, 2-pair would have raised.
Furthermore, triplets versus triplets may be a key worry, so the rank of your triplet may be important. With three deuces you’ll draw two to discourage opponent with three 8’s. With three Aces you’ll draw one to encourage opponent optimism. (And note that the relevant improvement, trip 2’s to quad 2’s, is much bigger than with a higher-ranked trips.)