I did realize that the 3*pi/2 doesn’t work because the fox can continue toward the duck in the direction it’s going.
The way I’d put it:
In order for the duck to make progress out of the center, it must at least be moving tangent to the circle it’s currently on. The time for the duck to travel to the edge in this case is:
Td = sqrt(1-Dr^2)
where Dr is the duck’s current radius from the center (unit circle and speed=1 for the duck).
If the fox starts opposite the duck (distance pi around the circle), then to get to the duck “the long way around” it needs to move pi + ang[sub]d[/sub], where ang[sub]d[/sub] is the angle formed by the duck, circle center, and the duck’s target point. The triangle formed by these points has a hypotenuse of 1, and one leg = Dr.
The time for the fox to travel this far is
Tf = (pi + arccos(Dr/1))/f
where f is again the speed of the duck.
Setting these times equal gives a minimum fox speed:
fmin = (pi + arccos(Dr)/sqrt(1-Dr^2)
Plotting this on [0,1] gave me the most insight. It has a minimum point (call it fc) in this region. That’s the first location the duck could escape using this plan. This is because on (0,fc) the function is decreasing, meaning the fox does not need to change direction if it has a higher speed. Past this point, the function increases, which implies the duck actually no longer needs to target the tangent to its circle once it’s further out.
To ensure that the duck can be opposite the fox, we must find where 1/f intersects this function. If it’s > fc then the duck could escape when the fox is going faster. I suspect it’s not a mere coincidence that 1/f intersects exactly at that point (the expression for fmin looks suspiciously like the answer to a differential equation as well). The answer being 4.603, of course.
Now, this still doesn’t prove that duck can’t escape if the fox is going faster, as it’s only good for when we know the duck can reach a point opposite the fox.
One other note: There is no requirement that the Fox must move in any particular direction. Which means that it’s just as accurate to say the “correct solution” involves the duck moving off the safe circle in a straight line away from the fox, flipping infinitely fast back and forth (at least until it reaches 1-pi/f). It’s a little unsatisfying, to me.