Here’s a proof for the minimum fox speed :
The time for the duck to reach a point e on the shore is
t(duck) = d(e) / s
where s is the speed of the duck, and d(e) is the distance to that point.
The time for the fox to reach that same point is:
t(fox) = | ang[sub]fe[/sub] | / (*f**s)
where ang[sub]fe[/sub] is the smallest angle between the fox’s current location and the exit point e. f is how much faster the fox travels than the duck.
For the duck to escape, t(duck) must be less than t(fox). If the distance for the duck to travel is expressed in units of the radius, and angfe is likewise in radians, the distances can be compared directly and the duck’s speed s cancels out. (This is essentially the same set of simplifications Chronos made).
There is a critical quantity
ang[sub]c[/sub] = *f**d(e’)
where e’ is the closest exit point to the duck.
If ang[sub]c[/sub] >= pi, it is impossible for the duck to escape by making a break for the shore, since no matter where the fox starts out, it can reach the duck[sup]*[/sup]. Note if ang[sub]c[/sub] < pi, that doesn’t mean the duck can escape, only that it may be able to if the fox is out of position.
This means that if it is at all possible for the duck to escape, it must be able to reach a point where the distance dc to the shore is such that
dc < pi/f
with the fox out of position (i.e. at pi radians from e, or opposite the center from the duck). Incidentally, this is the point at which the duck can make a break for it in the original problem; it doesn’t have to go out to 3/4 of the radius.
The radius of the circle within which the duck can beat the fox is 1/f (again, in units of the pond’s radius). The distance to the shore from any point on this circle is
ds = 1 - 1/f
This means that the duck can only escape if dc > ds
pi/f > (1 - 1/f)
pi > f - 1
pi + 1 > f
or more clearly, f < pi + 1. Which is exactly the same result Chronos calculated.
[sup]*[/sup] I also claim that at some point the duck must make a Euclidean straight line to the shore, however briefly. That means this shows the duck cannot ever reach the shore unless it can reach a critical distance like this. My phrasing is because when the duck is at the center, it is in such an ‘unescapable’ location, and yet it escapes. The rest of the proof demonstrates (somewhat loosely) that if f > 1, there will be a location where the duck can no longer keep the fox out of position.