Dune on Democracy

Frank Herbert was a very intelligent man with some weird ideas, who wrote an extremely involved epic saga of humanity’s future.

One of his major ideas was that aristocracy was a natural human state of governance. As he put it, leadership and power to accumulate in the hands of a few, with the bulk of the population content to let others run things.

This notion sets up the whole future society of a space empire and a formal class system that is the setting for Dune.

This isn’t news. But what is interesting to me is to explore the idea of “aristocracy” a bit further, and then I’ll post observations from later in his books.

Naturally “aristocracy” implies a hereditary ruling class with a formal class society. But consider that some other systems effectively become aristocracies.

Note the glorious revolution in Russia to overthrow the Czar and institute a utopian society of equality and give power to the workers - the people. How did that turn out? The Communist Party becoming a hoarder of power that privileged the few over the masses. Being the offspring of the well-to-do has airways been a shortcut to wealth and power, and being offspring of Party officials was no different. Until the collapse of communist Soviet Union.

But another parallel can be seen in the US. Our government tends to gather power seekers to run things, and they amass money and political power, which then begins to feed into family dynasties. Popular names are Kennedy, Bush, Cheney.

Not always, not everyone wants to continue in their parents’ footsteps, and the doorway is more open to entry than a lot of societies. But there still is an element of segregating the bulk of government decisions and actions to a select few, and the bulk of people content to live their own lives.

What inspired me to write this thread, however, was I’m reading my way back through the original books, and discovered interesting comments in the later ones.

A note here: some of these comments necessarily start to have connections to ongoing political events in the US. I think those are open. Indeed, those are the point of this thread. If the thread has to be relocated, I’m fine with that, but I am exploring the connection between Herbert’s ideas and how politics are now playing out.

Specifically, Chapterhouse: Dune. This thread will be open spoilers.

This is summary. I’ll flag the meaty quotes below.

This book is set in the very distant future of the Dune universe well after Paul’s time. The most striking importance is that the Bene Gesserit are still a big political power in the original home planets, though a major diaspora has occurred that sent humanity into the vast reaches of the universe, and now some of the descendents of those groups are coming back to the home planets with an eye to conquering them.

Also, the Empire has largely collapsed because of the actions of Leto Atreides II, the God Emperor. His time is also in the distant past, but his actions created the diaspora, as well as bred generations of Atreides to foster a specific goal of being invisible to prescience, i.e. nobody can use spice to see them in potential futures or their direct actions.

There were also technological advances that made artificial navigation possible, breaking the Navigators Guild monopoly on space travel, and the Worms on Dune were transformed, which created a spice shortage that led to the Bene Tlielax finding a way to grow it in their axlotl tanks. So the planet Rakis (formerly Arrakis or Dune) does not hold the monopoly on spice production. In fact, that is a smaller segment than the Tlielaxian spice.

The setting of the specific comments comes when one of the invaders (an Honored Matre, the “Spider Queen”, Dama) is questioning a Bene Gesserit (Lucilla). I put this for references in case someone wishes to look at the context.

COMMENTS BEGIN HERE
I’ve extracted bits of a conversation, so it’s a little choppy, not an essay. L is Lucilla and D is Dama. I’ve numbered sections for parts to consider, as well as looking at the whole.

1)
L: “But your society is administered by bureaucrats who know they cannot apply the slightest imagination to what they do.”

L: “They have no room to maneuver because that’s the way their superiors grow fat. If you don’t see the difference between regulation and law, both have the force of law.”

L: “Laws convey the myth of enforced change. A bright new future will come because of this law of that one. Laws enforce the future. Regulations are believed to enforce the past.”

L: “Necessary rules and laws keep you from adapting. Inevitably, everything comes crashing down.”

Sometimes I find myself lost in Herbert’s writing, like I can’t quite parse out what he’s saying. I can read the words, but the meaning is so fuzzy. This is one of those sections where I welcome thoughts on what he’s saying, the difference between regulations and laws.

If I understand it, he’s saying that laws are constraints that define how behavior is allowed to be, while regulations are descriptions of how things have been that has been “working”. A regulation is something that can be ignored or rejected if the situation changes, whereas a law still limits until it is actively changed.

Does that make sense? An I on the right track? Is Herbert on the right track?

He’s seems to be saying the Bene Gesserit operate by regulations and tradition, but not laws.

2)
L: “Isn’t it odd, Dama, … how rebels all too soon fall into of patterns if they are victorious? It’s not so much a pitfall in the path of all governments as it is a delusion waiting for anyone who gains power.”

D: " ‘Power corrupts. Absolute power corrupts absolutely.’ "

L: “Wrong, Dama. Something more subtle but far more pervasive: Power attracts the corruptible.”

This is an interesting spin on the old adage. I think there is a lot of truth in both statements.

3)
L: “I’ve really tried to help you, Dama. Laws are dangerous to everyone – innocent and guilty alike. No matter whether you believe yourself powerful or helpless. They have no human understanding in and of themselves.”

L: "Laws must always be interpreted. The law-bound want no latitude for compassion. No elbow room. ‘The law is the law.’ "

L: “That’s a dangerous idea, especially for the innocent. People know this instinctively and resent such laws. Little things are done, often unconsciously, to hamstring ‘the law’ and all those who deal in such nonsense.”

Observations and comments welcome at this point.

4)
L: " ‘More law!’ you say. ‘We need more law!’ So you make more instruments of non-compassion and, incidentally, new niches of employment for those who feed on the system."

L: “It rolls and rolls until it injures the wrong person or the wrong group. Then you get anarchy. Chaos. Rebels, terrorists, increasing outbursts of raging violence. A jihad! And all because you created something nonhuman.”

Again, a pause point for comments. To me, there seems to be something in what he’s saying. The stricter the society, the more our chafes. The more people resist, the tighter the restrictions get, the more people are wronged, the more it escalates. Oppression only works until people think they have more to gain than lose. Then comes rebellion, upheaval, chaos and destruction.

So far, these comments have merely been interesting. Now I get to the ones that really have bite.

5)
L: “Democracy is susceptible to being led astray by having scapegoats paraded in front of the electorate. Get the rich, the greedy, the criminals, the stupid leader and so on ad nauseam.”

L: “You know the flaw. A top-heavy bureacracy the electorate cannot touch always expand to the system’s limits of energy. Steal it from the aged, from the retired, from anyone. Especially from those we once called the middle class because that’s where most of the energy originates.”

L: "I presume you have some sort of civil service for the ‘lower orders.’ "

L: “Then you know how that dilutes the vote. Chief symptom: People don’t vote. Instinct tells them it’s useless.”

This is a fascinating observation. The effect of a system of looking out for the ones who support the regime creates the experience of favoritism, which generates the idea that someone’s vote doesn’t matter.

What’s more important and fairly obvious, feeling like your vote doesn’t matter undermines democracy in itself, as it fosters lack of participation.

IF YOU’VE ONLY SKIMMED SO FAR, THIS IS THE REALLY INTERESTING PART!

6)
D: “Democracy is a stupid idea anyway!”

L: “We agree. It’s demagogue-prone. That’s a disease to which electoral systems are vulnerable. Yet demagogues are ready to identify. They gesture a lot and speak with pulpit rhythms, using words that ring of religious fervor and god-fearing sincerity.”

L: “Sincerity with nothing behind takes so much practice, Dama. The practice can always be detected.”

L: “By anyone that learns the signs. Repetition. Great attempts to keep your attention on the words. You must pay no attention to words. Watch what the person does. That way you learn the motives.”

At this point, I’m obliged to point at American politics at the current moment. The prescience of Herbert outlining Trump is fascinating. This is the comment that drove me to post!

7)
D: “So you know how to make a democracy so whatever you want.”

L: “The technique is quite subtle but easy. You create a system where most people are dissatisfied, vaguely or deeply. This builds up widespread feelings of vindictive anger. Then you apply targets for that anger as you need them.”

L: “I prefer to think of it as a distraction. Don’t give them time to question. Bury your mistakes in more laws. You traffic in illusion. Bullring tactics.”

L: “Wave the pretty cape. They’ll charge it and be confused when there’s no matador behind the thing. That dulls the electorate just as it dulls the bull. Fewer people use their vote intelligently next time.”

Comments?

FINAL TOPIC - How Bene Gesserit govern.

8)
D: “Because you’d have to permit open voting, juries and judges and…”

L: “We call them Proctors. A sort of Jury of the Whole.”

L: “They can arrive at any decision they desire, the way a jury should function. The law be damned!”

L: “The first rule of our democracy: no laws restricting juries. Such laws are stupid.”

L: “There appears to be a rule of nature that says it’s almost impossible for self-serving groups to act enlightened.”

I’m very curious to explore just how this alternative form of democracy would be workable. It may be a topic for an independent thread, if anyone is interested.

If ever an o.p. need a TL;DR summary, it is this one. What is the essential question?

Stranger

Essentially it’s just a re-hashing of the age old problem that (as Churchill supposedly said) democracy is a terrible system with the one advantage that it is better than any other system we have come up with.

It’s not sufficiently detailed to be able to make any sensible comment. On the face of it though L is just talking about an appointed elite (“Proctors”) that - by Herbert’s own reasoning with which I agree - will become entrenched and corrupt.

I actually tend to tie this back to the first point about laws, regulations, and those unwilling and unable to change them.

IMHO (and I think Herbert would agree to a degree) many people, possibly most, are attracted to power because of it’s potential for change. In a world of regulations and laws, most people seek power to PREVENT change to them, because it preserves their power/wealth/influence, or to ENABLE change for themselves or others, often because the existing system prevents them seeking happiness/wealth/influence, etc. Neither is exactly evil or good in the abstract however.

The issue with corruption comes into play almost immediately: regardless of direction (pro/anti change) once you have power, you will likely bend or break the regulations or laws in order to forward your desires specific to change.

Back to regulations v. laws, IMHO regulations almost always guide but do not bind, while laws proscribe. It’s unspeakably difficult to enforce positive actions through either, so they’re almost entirely proscriptive - which leads to the third point. The law proscribes, often blindly, without nuance, or in such vauge manners (oft deliberately) that the nuance may as well not exist (see modern American abortion laws) - and said laws are easily flaunted by the powerful/wealthy (even in Dune) while the innocent of the quote have little or no recourse, creating an almost instinctive distrust or hate of such. Because we know they’re interpreted by and for the ruling class, and normally against those lacking power.

Until, exactly as quoted, the burden becomes too much to bear and chaos results.

Onto the biting point, 5 - yes, because humans almost ALWAYS perceive things as a Zero Sum game. If you want to gain something, someone else (preferably someone you already dislike) has to lose something. There’s little to no perception that some actions can create more equality for everyone, because even if everyone gains, said gain may be unequal. Note, I’m not saying there aren’t zero-sum scenarios, but people seem instinctively drawn to binary interpretations of win/lose.

Lastly 6, Democracy is a stupid idea anyway. Well, yes. It’s a terrible system, humanities weakness to demagogue’s have been railed against since Athens in the age of Pericles! I’ve quoted the following in other P&E posts, a quote taken by a rogue philosopher of the GDW game Dark Conspiracy:

"Saying that democracy is the best form of government is nearly as great an understatement as saying that the Pacific Ocean holds more water than any tin cup you’ve ever seen. The issues are so clear, the truth so solidly anchored, that I have no patience with people who think that there’s even anything to argue about.

"Someone once said to me, 'Some-times the people are lazy and stupid, and make poor decisions. It sometimes takes a strong leader to protect them and choose the right course.

'“So a nation of stupid and lazy people, because of a strong, intelligent leader, is saved from its own sloth and folly? Where is the justice in that? Democracy isn’t just the best form of government; it’s the only one even remotely worth a damn. Only democracy guarantees that people get what they deserve.”

Zena Marley (Early 21st-century mercenary-philosopher)

The BG would likely agree, because almost no one is “human” in their POV. What do you expect when animals try to rule themselves? And the BG don’t see any benefit for themselves in being the “strong, intelligent leader” to save the animals from their sloth and folly. Instead they exert themselves only on those they deem worthwhile to their own interests, and otherwise (back to power) maintain sufficient power (hard and soft mind you) to protect their interests.

But their society works because they winnow themselves so very, very hard. Their requirements for discipline, intellect, will and the ability to subsume their own personal wants and ambitions to the greater good. And that leaves out that honestly, almost all true power and influence is restricted to Reverend Mothers, who, as I said in another thread, are the perfect mechanism for the self-reinforcing sacrifice, because they contain generations of other memory showing how important that sacrifice has been. They are the rare few that are least vulnerable to repeating the errors of the past, because they have experienced those errors over and over and over and over…

There is not one essential question. I wish to discuss some of the statements made and the ideas they represent about government and democracy, especially in light of current American politics.

I agree it is a long op.

This was the first election since 1984 that did not have a Bush, Biden or Clinton on the ticket (Prez or VP)

I wouldn’t count Biden. That’s just one person, not a clan. Clinton is a bit closer.

I don’t think they are appointed, though it’s not clear how they are selected. They serve as some sort of Jury to review their leadership’s decisions. The couple instances where they are mentioned acting concern decisions over the Reverend Mothership. There’s a case when Odrade takes over from Teraza, then a later review of Odrade’s leadership years later after another incident.

There’s also mention that they monitor Odrade’s reproductive pairings because she is Atreides, and there is such a fear of repeating the Kwizach Haderach.

I agree there doesn’t seem to be enough actual detail given to explain how their structure of a democratic jury is better protected from the risks of democracy. I was hoping someone else could glean more than I have managed to. Or knows of some other writings by Herbert that discuss the concept.

It’s not completely clear to me how involved he has thought through his idea, but given the amount of depth he put into a lot of his themes, I’m curious.

The other side of the conversation is if there are other ways to safeguard against the methods of subverting democracy he outlines.

I do think he has poked something salient regarding voter apathy. I’m wondering about other people’s thoughts.

Well, if we had some form of legislation on how news was distributed, such as the BBC, then organizations such as Fox would have to be much more circumspect in their propaganda, which is tied into the above quotes. While many people love to be fooled, let’s never forget how easy Fox (and now other, lower reach sites and providers) can endlessly spin variants of “Look at the newest outrage!” to endlessly shift blame, protect their interests, and keep their audience in an perpetual sea of rage and discontent.

Given the fragmentation and devaluation of what news, facts, and reality are, I think that particular Pandora’s box is opened forever, but I doubt Herbert would have seen the same, although yellow journalism is not by any means a new thing.

But it is something that could have been managed via legislation to better protect our Democracy. Now? Probably too little, too late.

To dig into this a bit deeper, his early complaints are against bureaucracy. He laments the formation of government structures that feed on government resources to enact the policies of the government. Laws need enforcers, and power structures grow to use all the available resources. His line about civil servants is a bit confusing here.

At another point, he says that even a spoils system is preferable to an entrenched civil service, because the bureaucrats build power about themselves in the structure that becomes separate from control of the people.

Right now, we are about to go through this debate in a very real way. Trump has previously threatened to get rid of civil service protections. He’s moved to make more jobs subject to political appointments, and promises to install loyalists who will further his policies.

The fear in this kind of structure is severalfold. First, corruption is much more prevalent. Second, the cronyism extends to the kind of political favoritism that Republicans were accusing the Dems of, i.e. withholding FEMA funds from the opposing party supporters. Indeed, Trump has made these kinds of threats with disaster relief funds to states like California.

Third, that kind of favoritism runs counter to the principle of equality that America is supposed to cherish. Social justice is subverted or outright opposed in that system.

And fourth, political appointees have no guarantee of any qualifications for the jobs in question. Say what you will about Trump’s Cabinet appointments the first time around, most at least had a passing knowledge of the topic of their office. This time around, his key and apparently only criteria is loyalty. Christy Noem as Homeland Security Secretary. Marco Rubio as Secretary of Defense.

At least with the Civil service system, all the deputies and workers would be knowledgeable in the field and know how things work. Replacing more levels with cronies loses that institutional knowledge, which leads to reinventing the wheel.

Of course of your goal is to cripple the agencies as a step toward eliminating them, it’s a great plan. If your goal is to have a functional organization, nobody knowing how to do the job is a surefire plan to incompetence.

But I sense a Libertarian streak in Herbert’s arguments. Smaller government structure that defines and controls less. Less bureacracy, less funneling decisions upward. Decisions made at the lowest implementable level.

His government structure for the Bene Gesserit seems to contain three people at the top level. Mother Superior and two chief advisors. One is head of Archives and data, who also happens to be a Mentat, and one other who doesn’t have a specified role or title but happens to be really old.

Mother Superior Odrade reflects at some point about using her personnel to their strengths. She thinks of them with officer labels but never refers to anyone that way. One person might be a lieutenant, one a division commander in her head, but nobody is ever designated as such. She can make assignments as she sees fit, so she can give them the duties they are capable of, without making an official hierarchy that then creates jealousies and feelings of superiority.

It sounds so reasonable except it seems vastly unworkable as an actual system of government at a planetary scale, let alone a network of planets.

It also feels like a de facto aristocracy, except the job assignments are not hereditary. But human nature of authority, trust, and loyalty tie up in structures like “chain of command” or liegelord social structures. How the Bene Gesserit avoid that is not explained.

Yes, especially political and governmental power. But power in general is about protecting self - through change or change prevention.

So the adage is based on the concept that once someone gains power, they then find abuse tempting. Certainly one can see the slippery slope concept, whereby a basically honest person can come to justify corrupt behavior to further their supposed noble goals. A little leads to more, and it snowballs.

Herbert’s contention is that the temptation to abuse the power is the lure for many to gain the power in the first place. It’s not enough to get some money, you have to get it all. It’s not enough to have some control, you have to have it all.

It may be a more fundamental aspect of human nature. The people who are least likely to abuse it don’t want it in the first place. The people who want power are predisposed to want more of it.

That seems to be Herbert’s distinction.

And yes, the lack of nuance to restrictions and the lack of flexibility of laws combine with the lack of even enforcement to undercut social cohesion.

And we are about to demonstrate the principle “no one is above the law,” no longer applies, if it ever did.

I think Herbert is talking about something else. The bureaucracy lives to feed itself and build it’s own power, unreachable by the voters because it isn’t controlled by them. The bureaucracy grows because there are no real checks to growth, and always justification for growth. New restrictions, new benefits, new policies to enact, new jobs created to be filled.

Once the bureaucracy is in charge, it distracts the people with elections and voting and the symbol of who is running things, but that’s all theater. The real power is in the system, not the people in the elected seats.

But you are correct, the distractions work by virtue of the perception of the zero sum game. “I got mine, don’t try to take it from me,” is a great distraction, one that pulls a lot of levers. “They are coming for you,” is another one.

The nobility of trying to improve quality of life for all by improving the worst off doesn’t make it through the zero-sum filter.

Okay, this point is a place where Herbert isn’t completely consistent. In Dune, the Bene Gesserit certainly screen the aristocratic class for “humanity”. They also work their power via said aristocracy, and their breeding program is via that aristocracy because the breeding program is via themselves.

However, things seem a bit different by the time of Chapterhouse. Leto’s 13,000 year reign has shaped all of human culture, and he took the BG breeding plan away from them. But he never destroyed them, and upon his demise, they remain a strong power in the home planets. Largely because of the collapse of the aristocracy replaced by the technology of the Tlielax merged with the Guild, the descendants of Siona via the remains of the Fish Speakers, and the priests of Rakis worshipping the remnants of Leto inside Shai-Halud.

But another 10,000 years go by before the events in Heretics and then Chapterhouse.

In Heretics, Darwi Odrade is taken by one of the Worms to the long-lost remains of Seitch Tabr. Her explorations there lead her to a message from Leto to the Bene Gesserit about their role in human destiny.

The Bene Gesserit are also shown to see themselves as the stewards of humanity, while they themselves have actually given up their own. They no longer consider themselves fully human, because the fear of a new KH led them to reject love, and they have built their own internal culture to root it out. They see it as dangerous to making rational decisions about the directing of humanity.

But in fact, the Rev Mother Teraza specifically assigns a particular charge to Miles Teg precisely because she thinks it is a choice humans need to make.

So in Dune there is the suggestion that the BG don’t consider most people to be human, but by the time of Chapterhouse they are shepherds for all of humanity, and there are no hints of “the box” or other tests.

And that may be the biggest asset that they have that prevents tyranny and retains democracy without the pitfalls. Not the structure of their government itself, but the fact that the leaders have such a well of experience available to keep on track, and the training and discipline it takes to get there is so intense as to unify the sense of responsibility.

You stopped at 1984, when Bush was on the ticket as VP, but: wasn’t Bush also on the ticket in 1980?

I think we have some differences in timelines here. I generally use, but don’t expect to be perfect, the Dune Wiki Timeline:

So Leto II (or third depending on POV :slight_smile: ) ruled for 3.5k years approximately, not 13000. Of course, there are nearly ten thousand years past the death of Leto II before the story picks up again in Heretics which leads directly to Chapterhouse, so if you’re referring to the whole period between your novels as Leto’s rule, it would be somewhat accurate, but I’d politely disagree…

Except, that in many ways I -don’t- disagree. And that brings me back to the first part of what I quoted. See, IMHO, the BG did not, and still do not care for humanity, either in their definition, or in the biological definition most others use. The breeding program was a means to seize control of one area that had always eluded them, the mastery of male memories, something that eluded them. Not that some degree of foresight wasn’t a possibility (see Guild Navigators) but that wasn’t the stated goal.

And they always assumed they’d have full control of the KH’s upbringing and education. It’s Jessica that added the randomness to the equation, which is one of the reasons that the God Emperor speaks to them with her voice often when they come to court.

The KH was about knowledge and power (to the extent they were different) - but post God Emperor, I think that the BG (the ones not involved in the scattering at least) are STILL playing Leto’s game. He made sure that they’d know his words, and his journals that were recovered. That he’d played their own game and better than they did. And Leto apparently very much DID care for humanity. So what did he know that they didn’t?

So they go between trying to understand Leto’s plans (although whether to further or hinder probably varied by a great deal over time) such as the ghola project, and trying to avoid it entirely (their distrust of “wild” Atreides genes).

Which, to me at least, explains a large part of the inconsistency in behavior. Charmed by the potential and power, terrified of the possible consequences.

Oops, you are correct, I swapped some numbers in my head. All those really long times got confusinated.

Opinions vary. We are talking across vast time periods, and even with Other Memory as an anchor, there were an incredible number of women involved. To say they all had one outlook or philosophy across all of that is straining credibility.

The BG talk about their position and function. Yes, they are power brokers, and serve a quiet (until Paul) goal of acquiring the KH. And yes, after centuries of work, they fully expected to control every bit of the KH upbringing.

Jessica did throw a monkey wrench in that plan by producing a son for her Duke out of love. And the BG holds her name as a watchword for centuries after, where the purge love from their internal culture.

I would argue, though, that it wasn’t Jessica that ultimately crapped their plan. The political moves pushing Paul to Dune and inundated him with spice in an uncontrolled manner was a BG failure. They had tried others before. They knew the risk was likely failure. But they, of all people, had to know that a heavy spice diet could affect him even before the Water of Life. If he was really a possibility, they should have made moves to secure Paul.

The latest movie goes so far to say that elimination of the Atreides was the Reverend Mother’s counsel, but I don’t think that’s from the book. Leaving his childhood training to Jessica was probably considered acceptable training up to that point. The point remains that Paul was exposed to heavy doses of spice and left in a volatile situation where the RM knew a move would be made against the Atreides. She must have expected Paul’s death, regardless of any promises about whatever can be done has been.

But there was more to them than the sought after KH. They were focused on the aristocracy because they held control of the welfare of humanity. Yes, there was an element of their own political power, but they did have a desire to improve humanity.

Regardless of what all was happening when Paul came along, millennia later when Teraza and then Odrade are running things, they do have a further goal for all of humanity. Odrade talks about the maturing of humanity.

But they also talk about BG methods, at least by then. They talk about flowing with the universe, not obstructing it.

I think that is an accurate summary. Their are factions within the BG, some pushing the Duncan Idaho project, some afraid of it. And Odrade’s discovery of Seitch Tabr reveals Leto still trying to direct and influence them.

There is an element that I get a bit confused over, and that’s the books’ later comments on prescience being causative. I get that awareness brings choices, but Paul got trapped by choices he made, and even Leto is bored and looking for surprise. But there seems to be more to it.

Teraza’s plan for the destruction of Rakis is the enactment of an effort to break the hold of prescience. I think they really mean Leto’s continued influence. Yet the Sheanna program it’s to build on the remnants of Leto’s religion. So how are they really breaking free?

The Honored Matres are the ultimate shakeup, one they couldn’t control. But Odrade’s plan with Murbella is, perhaps, the only play they really have, and it’s not just about BG survival - although that is certainly a big motive. It’s also about subverting the HM, who have a much bigger foothold on the universe. The BG plan is hybrid vigor. Taking the reflexes and numbers of the HM, but subverting them into BG philosophy through ostensibly giving them the BG biological advantages.

But there is also the element of the maturation of humanity that is their started overriding goal.

I think a lot was going on, and that Paul wasn’t exactly written off, but for a rare exception, things moved far more quickly than even the BG suspected. The BG fully expected Harkonnen treachery to occur on Dune, and even warned Jessica via Lady Fenring, and the prior efforts of the Missonaria Protectiva were of course VERY helpful. But my speculation is that they, like Leto (I) expected the blow to come much later, and be less overwhelming. Again, even with the Sadukar, without the traitor within, the results would have been much less one sided. And it was Paul ending up fully integrated with Fremen culture that accelerated his spice dosage, and gave him access to the Water of Life, which otherwise would not have been accessible (it is inferred that Reverend mothers had alternate options to the “true” water of life).

So, the BG got caught with their pants down, and failed to recover and investigate properly.


As I read it, there are visions that once made CANNOT be changed, and ones that can be changed. Leto II said that Paul had a vision of the Golden Path, but rejected the loss of humanity as too much. Or his possible death at the hands of both Feyd and Lord Fenring. So not -all- futures are fixed, but some are. And the choices made at those cusp points can prevent future choices or make other outcomes certain.

The way I choose to read prescience and inevitability, is that once an entity capable of doing so arises, it works like the most complete version of Asimov’s psychohistory imaginable. But far less control of the topic! So you see one or more aspects, as predicated by the actions of everyone and everything subject to prescience. There’s a great deal in Dune (taking us back to Democracy!) that indicates that ultimately, all homo sapiens (human and otherwise) are ultimately deterministic. Given enough knowledge, experience, and perception, it’s all inevitable. The new generation Atreides though are exempt from such prediction and observation, which leaves the future much more random that otherwise.

There’s a lot we DON’T know though, as Paul’s and Alia’s vision seemed MUCH more random than Leto II - and his explanations should not always be fully trusted. He’d lie if it furthered his goals. And that fact that various other abilities, which would seem to overlap or be adjacent still spring up later (In Teg for example) would to me indicate that there’s probably more going on.

I agree with all that.

That does seem to be the premise Herbert is working from. Paul certainly has some outcomes that he avoids, but then gets stuck with the Jihad he wanted to avoid. Later, he’s apparently able to use his prescience to walk around blind, describe people’s clothing and appearance, know to the minutest detail what will be said and done. And apparently can’t change, or won’t make the necessary change that is open.

Oh absolutely. Paul and Aria had limited foresight. They could see patterns and murky places.

How much Navigators can predict people is never explored that I know. About the only thing on the topic I recall is that Paul is the enigma because they see places he fades out, and then he becomes the KH and is invisible.

Leto has a much more complete function with prescience. I think it has to do with the symbiotic relation to the worm. The nature of the worm as spice means he is intimately more saturated than any human in existence, before or after. I think that contributes to his complete access to other memory as well.

But the develoments of both Sheanna and Miles Teg speak to further latent possibilities in the Atreides, and thus human, lines. Duncan Idaho even mentions this to the BG for further study.

Excellent point. Intact shields would have greatly changed the balance and speed of attack. Leto would likely have had time to call for allies against the Harkonnen, and been able to hold out for at least a while. His troops were better than Harkonnens, and possibly close to Sardaukar. Hard to know because of the treachery.

No, they had other options they used before the Water of Life, but after its use the others were not as effective. Melange was better, which is why it plays such a pivotal role in the future of the BG through the God Emperor reign of scarcity.

That’s actually something of a question. What did the BG do when all the worms were gone and Leto was the only source of spice? They couldn’t get the WoL - I guess they had to use other methods?

Certainly they have some stockpile when they are trying to regrow worms on Chapterhouse. Axlotl tanks produce spice, but not WoL. And by then the Tleilaxian tanks are gone, too.

Agreed on all counts. There were the less effective prior methods, although even they seem to be far superior to the similarly dangerous but even less efficacious methods the Honored Matres embraced (not that they had Reverend Mothers, but borrowed part of their traditions from BG and renegades of the scattering along with the Fish Speakers).

It’s also remotely possible, that mega-doses of melange, perhaps otherwise lethal doses, would be enough for the Reverend mothers. Very painful to endure even with the Sisterhood’s reserves, but enough for the 3.5k years of Leto II’s reign, especially since he did allow some spice to flow from his own stockpiles created before the terraforming of Arrakis was complete.

But back to Democracy, if our musings on Herbert’s thoughts and intentions are correct, Democracy was at some level a sham. Or that may be too harsh, rather that it might be a lovely ideal betrayed by the endemic selfishness and short-sightedness (something he harps about often) of humanity. His heros all have some ability to read the future, whether supernatural, or via extreme knowledge and skill, and are fully informed of the past via other memory. Only they, having a grasp of both the past and the future, and the knowledge and discipline to use it constructively are capable of charting a course.

Otherwise, if all humanity can just be directed or controlled, at least it can minimize the damages of short term whims, which Democracy is particularly vulnerable too. Therefore while feudalism isn’t ideal, it does (with behind the scenes guidance) serve as a useful tool of control.