This is valid for the U.S., but not for all countries. Link.
We need a worldwide strategy to control this pandemic.
Jeez, I just proofread my post. What a mess.
I wonder how bad it’ll get, I recently heard that even with Delta, we will only get about 1/5 of the cases a day in the US that we were getting at the covid peak. But again, who knows. I don’t know if 30-70% of people vaccinated will lower the rates that much. Plus yeah it’ll be regional. In the deep south only 30-40% of people are vaccinated.
I think my post died in that fire too.
I’d need to know the reason for the discrepancy between the data we had previously, saying both Moderna and Phiser were 90% effective at preventing disease after the second shot, and this new study.
Is it that protection against Delta wanes more quickly? Were they factoring in people who only got a single shot, which only had alike a 30-something percent efficiency? Is it that there were previous very mild cases that were going unnoticed? Were the 90% studies flawed in some way? The 63% studies?
The one thing we have known for a while is that the vaccines are all less effective on the Delta variant. That’s why I’ve been so concerned about vaccine escape, due to people refusing their vaccination.
And it’s why I think they should have emphasized from day one that you need the vaccine to protect others, and not made so many people think it was a personal choice.
I get to be face-to-face with 200-300 customers a day 3 days a week. Oh yeah, I love hearing about this… 
Still, if the vaccine keeps me from dying or landing in the hospital it’s worth the two shots. I was doing my job before we had a vaccine at all, and that was more scary than this (at least so far…)
Too early to say - the vaccine is less than a year old so there is zero information on long term effectiveness, since there hasn’t been a “long term” yet. We’ll see how things are in December.
I haven’t been masking at work the last month and I’ve been enjoying it, but if I have to mask up again I will
Speaking as Ms. Allergic - unless you already know you have an allergy to a component of the vaccine (which is rare but does happen - such people will also react to a bunch of other stuff so in general they know about the problem) the response to “I have a lot of allergies” is NOT to skip the shot but to be observed for a bit longer after the shot than usual.
The original Moderna and Pzifer efficacy studies were done before Delta showed up. They’re against prior mutations. After they were done Delta popped up and changed the statistics.
Given how selfish some Americans have shown themselves to be I’m sure that wouldn’t be even as effective as appealing to selfish self-interest.
Everyone and anyone who has resisted vaccination and masking rejects the concept of public health; there is only one’s own health in their world.
With regard to the vaccines, it appears to be that Delta is finding ways to break past the immunity that both doses provided against previous variants.
What needs to be emphasized by public health officials starting from now is that Delta will eventually become the strain. It will outcompete all of the other variants, and then within a matter of a few months, if not sooner, the odds are good that a newer variant will outcompete this one. The odds are also good that it will be just as destructive.
I’m worried because the sense I get the CDC and other officials at the federal level are a little bit slow to react to this. There should be greater urgency and they ought to consider new guidance, starting with a recommendation for everyone to start wearing masks again indoors, including those who’ve had vaccines.
I have actually been surprised at how well the vaccines have held up. I fully expected a waning of immunity by this time requiring booster shots as well as new variants that were not susceptible to the vaccines). However, not only have the vaccines maintained effectiveness much better than expected, but they also show significant protection against severe disease in all the current variants. Of course, I continue to use a mask, gloves and all precautions at work and will continue to wear a mask indoors. I also continue to encourage vaccination among my patients although I believe I may have actually angered some of them by being too aggressive (studies show that a doctor’s recommendation is the most important way to get reluctant patients to be vaccinated). I still think that the best way forward is to continue to immunize worldwide, maintain some precautions and keep vigilant for waning immunity and/or resistant variants so that booster shots can be available as soon as needed.
They also counted only symptomatic infections, not laboratory-confirmed asymptomatic ones. One of the reasons why mRNA seem so efficacious compared to others (not that they aren’t effective, they are an amazing technological achievement) is that the Pfizer and Moderna marketing departments ensured that results with less effective numbers were kept out of the press.(Asymptomatic cases, or amongst very high risk cohorts).
Another hypothesis is that the original efficacy estimation was done during trials in an era of masking and social distancing, which might have warped the numbers, (64% is pretty good all things considered).
Subunit vaccines, ie where vaccine contains only part of a pathogen’s DNA are known to lose effectiveness to variants, quite quickly. mRNA vaccines also only expose the immune system to a part of the pathogen, in this case, the spike protein, so they might also be so susceptible. Whole virus vaccines tend to have better resistance to variants.
The silver lining in all this is that if you do exercise the standard caution of wearing masks, limiting your interactions, staying socially distanced, etc., the chances are still good that you won’t get infected and that even if you do, you stand a good chance of staying out of the hospital.
Fully vaccinated. I wear masks still.
Its a small issue and doesn’t bother me.
Also, the data is much cleaner. We knew what the laws were in various counties, but the laws didn’t correlate terribly well with whether people actually wore masks or avoided socializing. The person I know who caught covid in CA was exposed at a party that violated the local laws, for instance. But we have a much better sense of where vaccinated people live than we ever had of where people wore masks in public.
Thank You!
Are you for real?
No, I’m talking about the previous studies on the delta variant. The numbers were something like 38% effective with only the first shot, but still rose to 90% effective on the second.
So I’m wondering why these new delta numbers seem to be a lot worse. This is a huge difference that changes a lot of my plans. A 12% chance of severe illness with my dad means I’m going to have to make sure he’s masking up, and we’re not going to be able to go out and do things except with other vaccinated people. Not here in Arkansas, where the vaccinated rate is like 31% and even our Republican governor is starting to show concern.
Oh, and @asahi: yes, the antimaskers wouldn’t be convinced, but there are a lot more people refusing the vaccine, pushing the “my body, my choice” narrative. I wish that the CDC had gotten ahead of that narrative, and said we were vaccinating for others as well as ourselves.
A nurse friend on Facebook just pointed out that COVID infections in people under 18 has gone from 4% symptomatic to 34% symptomatic. So that’s the direction I’m using now: think of the children.
I’ve seen the same reports, and wonder how this is going to progress. The variants seem to have the nasty combination of being more infectious and with a slightly higher death rate, together with the current vaccines not being that effective against the, The really scary one is the lambda variant, first reported from Peru, as the vaccines are relatively little use against it.
Here in Poland, people are getting very casual about the precautions and often don’t wear masks indoors, or don’t cover their noses. The infection figures are dropping and are now very low - but if one of the variants comes in then I fear a return to the figures of later last year.
I assume that the virologists are working overtime to get new vaccines out. I also see reports that they want to develop a sort of universal anti-coronavirus vaccine. That sounds rather ambitious to me, but good luck to them.
That was a parody of an anti-vaxxer/anti-masker/hoaxer. LOL. @puzzlegal is very much for all approaches to end the pandemic.
I realize that another post slipped in between the one you quoted and this one, which was meant to respond to it
But I still thought my meaning ought to be clear.
Is this true as stated?
This is the sort of thing I was talking about:
A prior real-world study from the United Kingdom indicated the Pfizer vaccine, which uses a similar mRNA technology, was 88% effective against the Delta variant in terms of protecting people from symptomatic disease.