Early hydroxychloroquine associated with survival

Doctors are regular people, too. That is, some are prone to dumb and/or panicky behavior.

Recall that some of the HCQ shortages were due to some doctors prescribing it for themselves and family, despite no real evidence it was effective at the time. And other doctors, despite knowing it wasn’t likely a game-changer or ineffective, still prescribed to people who merely asked for it.

It’s not like getting a medical degree magically makes a person any wiser or circumspect. The degree and training requirements simply weed out some of the worst. The person who graduates last in class in medical school is still a doctor and it’s not like we’re asking for test scores or rankings when we visit.

I’ll leave this to the medical people here. This is what I’ve heard from various sources and combined them in my brain. Tell me where I’m wrong.

HCQ is an immunosuppressive. It’s greatly needed in autoimmune diseases such as lupus and arthritis (and malaria that acts like an autoimmune disease).

It can have severe side effects and should not be taken lightly.

HCQ was looked into as a treatment for the cytokine storms caused by SARS.

There is some indication that Covid-19 causes cytokine storms in some patients and HCQ might effective in those cases.

The effectiveness in other cases are by no means proven.

What did I get wrong and is some of this just speculation?

And yes the podiatrists and ophthalmologists that wrote prescriptions for HCQ just in case piss me off. My sister has lupus and actually needs the drug.

New study in an article on the CNN COVID 19 updates page and just posted a few minutes ago shows no benefit from HCQ.

It was an observational study of 1376 hospitalized patients in NYC.

Of course this study was not for “early” use I don’t think but still interesting.

Moderating

You mean, so people can post counter-evidence to the OP?:dubious:

I think we can trust users of this site (well, most of them) to evaluate the evidence. I don’t think discussion of scientific studies needs be shut off just because of the political aspects of this.

Colibri
QZ Moderator

Possible antiviral activity hydroxychloroquine was assessed in vitro (in test tube, more or less) on the aftermath of the SARS epidemic. HCQ was found to have antiviral activity against the coronavirus that caused SARS.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(06)70361-9/fulltext

The hypothesis is that HCQ interferes with a part of the viral replication process, glycosolation.

<my opinion>
IMHO as someone who is not a doctor but who did, MANY years ago and very briefly, work on vaccine development is that glycosolation interference as a mechanism of action would reasonably account for differing efficacy according to when in the infection cycle it is administered.

A drug that substantially reduces viral replication might allow the body more time to produce an effective antibody before being overwhelmed by infection. But giving the same drug late in the infection cycle might not prove as effective as by then a cytokine storm may have already taken hold so that limiting the number of viral particles might not be so important to the clinical course.
</my opinion>

I do think blatantly wrong/misleading thread titles are dangerous. We know of problems these reports about hydroxychloroquine have caused. The title comes up in Google searches, etc.

It isn’t political, it is dangerous to people that this this was a legit science.

ETA: Sorry, should this reply be in another thread?

If you have a dispute about a moderator decision, you should take it to ATMB.

While the study cited in the OP gives preliminary results, it appears to me to be legit science.

I doubt anybody on this board is going to decide to use this treatment based simply on the thread title. And if they read the thread, they will see the counter evidence.

I fully realize that this treatment has become a political acid test. But just because it has been pushed inappropriately for political reasons, doesn’t mean discussion of scientific studies about it should be off limits.

Just one correction: HCQ is not an immunosuppressant. It modulates the immune system without suppressing it. I was on it for lupus for years, and one reason I liked it was that, unlike the other lupus meds I’d been on, it didn’t suppress my immune system. That meant that when I got a mild infection while on HCQ, it didn’t blow up into a major one, as it had on immunosuppressants.

Yes, HCQ does have an an anti-viral effect in vitro. But it’s a very weak one, and a patient would have to take a lot of the drug in order to achieve the serum concentrations required to replicate the anti-viral effect. I posted a link to an article upthread that estimated needing a dosage 5x to 17x the dosages used for autoimmune disease in order to be effective as an anti-viral. Only one study that I’ve heard of, the Brazilian one, used dosages that barely touched the low end of that range and it was discontinued for side effects.

I think the danger in all this poorly informed interest in this drug isn’t the risk to any one patient, or group of patients - although I’ve got to admit I find the “What have you got to lose?” mentality a little astounding when used in reference to a disease with a 95% survival rate with best supportive care only.

The real danger is not the risk to any one patient, it’s the collective desperation of society as a whole. It will be interesting to find out if the drug has any minor benefit, but I think it’s pretty clear already that it’s not going to be a miracle cure.

The danger is that the wholesale misinformation is going to give people an excuse to stop the hard painful stuff ( and the easy painless stuff, too) that we need to be doing for now to keep safe. The danger is that people will stop avoiding large gatherings and taking basic precautions because they think a pill will make them immune really soon.

Here’s the article on this study, from the New England Journal of Medicine. I urge everyone that’s following this discussion to look at this, and not just for the results. It’s an excellent example of what a properly conducted study looks like.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/pdf/10.1056/NEJMoa2012410?articleTools=true

I’d like to point out a couple of things. The study’s CONCLUSION is that HCQ had no effect. But if you look at the raw data, it shows a fatality rate among HCQ patients that’s over double the fatality rate of untreated patients.

But the researchers acknowledged that the treated group was, in general, way sicker than the untreated group. And they performed an elaborate set of adjustments based on the age, condition, medication history and insurance of the patients. These adjustments the reduced degree of negative outcome.

I wanted to flag this because of the weeks of breathless hyping of positive results derived from poorly conducted studies by people that don’t know what they are talking about.
Using the same metrics that they did, I could EASILY look at the results of this study and conclude, loudly and publicly, that this drug is doubling the fatality rate and killing people. I’m sorely tempted to make that argument under the guise of fighting bad science with more bad science but I’m not going to do that.

They are using propensity scores, similar to the VA study which also found hydorxycholroquine was not a useful treatment. This is a standard method of doing experiments when a randomized trial is not possible, and can give reliable results when done well.

New reporting is out on a large study of the benefits of the Hydroxychloroquine based treatment regimens. The authors compared data from approximately 15,000 treated patients with data from untreated hospitalized patients. The various protocols seem to be associated with an increased mortality of between 34% and 45%, and an increased risk of heart arrhythmias ranging from 137% and 411% depending on the protocol.

“In this large multi-national real world analysis, we did not observe any benefit of hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine (when used alone or with a macrolide) on in-hospital outcomes, when initiated early after a diagnosis of COVID-19. Each of the drug regimens of chloroquine of hydroxychloroquine alone or in combination with a macrolide was associated with an increased hazard fir a clinically significant occurrence of ventricular arrhythmias and increased risk of in-hospital death with COVID-19.”

Willful ignorance is toxic

TL:dr Hydroxychloroquine- More Death, No Benefits

Thank you for this. Not surprising in the least either.

Of course, it’s simple, they’re not giving the patients enough zinc!

:wink:
CMC fnord!

That’s awful. I can’t blame them for trying something but it actually reduced their survival chances rather than helping them.

The awful thing is that so many tried it, when there were other treatments which they could have tried and which were more likely to succeed. The popularity of this one crowded out other options, and gave humanity less useful data to operate on.

No. TL: DR is it probably isn’t something you give very ill people since by that time its probably already too late to help them.But might be useful early on.
Politics aside, hydroxychloroquine could (maybe) help fight COVID-19
On the Lancet study

And almost as if speaking directly to Ann Hedonia

Moreover the fact that this drug has become a target of political polarisation is disastrous. Trumps support and enthusiasm is misplaced. But the opposite reactions, like those of Ann Hedonia is just as bad, treating it as if its akin to leeching or giving prayers and incense.

Like this. Emphasis supplied.
Politics Around Hydroxychloroquine Hamper Science

Yay sound bites vs. studies. Very convincing wall of words.

I’m going to be posting something longer, but I want to make a comment with regards to the comment about the safety data so I doesn’t get lost inside a longer post.

The proven safety profile is for the dosages used for rheumatic illnesses. Unfortunately, and this seems to be the catch, the anti-viral effects don’t kick in at that concentration, they require a much higher dosage. The recommended dosages for COVID patients were considerably higher than that for rheumatic diseases.