I’m just venting here a bit. I’ve been watching chloroquine phosphate (and bought some) back in mid Feb when the first article by Gao suggested CP’s efficacy. The anecdotal evidence is pretty substantial at this point. Back in Feb, 10 hospitals in China had been using it, and CP was set to be standard treatment in the next guidelines. The only studies more flawed then the French one were those that found no benefit. IIRC, the last had an n of 11, all of which were already on oxygen, 3 of whom had solid cancer, 2 leukemia, an AIDS patient, etc. Since CP prevents entrance to the cell, giving it too late is like closing the barn door after the horses have run out.
Trump was grossly irresponsible in his announcement - even causing deaths as a result- but the media backlash cast a little too much doubt on the likely efficacy of CP itself. I think doctors really need to be more careful when they say “there is no evidence that X works,” because, true or not, most people assume that means they don’t believe the drug works. Some clarify that this is not the case, but many doctors and journalists I’ve seen on CNN this week seem to weave their distaste for Trump’s actions into their skepticism about CP and Hydroxychloroquine.
I’m not here to debate the research studies at this point. I’m just kind of bummed that I think ultimately Trump is gonna look like he alone led the fight against the evil Dems in getting the panacea into the hands of the people.
The media? Did I hear right, did a reporter actually ask trump why grocery store are open? Is that plan, have people only allowed food if government approves?
Even in terms of what it’s designed to do, it’s only moderately effective as prophylaxis against mosquito-borne parasites, so the idea that this is going to be a goldmine cure for COVID-19 is horse shit. The side effects alone are such that it would likely only be used when patients really start to go downhill, and when patients go downhill with COVID-19 they go down fast.
It’s too late to manufacture the quantity of this drug that would in any meaningful way produce a noticeable benefit in the aggregate anytime soon. The first tsunami of COVID-19 death is upon our shores and there is nothing that will stop it – too fucking late for that.
If you want to entertain the idea that this drug could be manufactured in sufficient quantities domestically (India owns most production and is currently banning export), and that we might be better prepared for tsunami wave #2, I might go along with that. But by that point, there will be at minimum tens of thousands dead, and literally millions of lives ruined by this.
I honestly don’t see the upset, but then again I confess to being repeatedly naive and oblivious to the amount of kool aid that Trump supporters will guzzle in order to have their America restored.
I am betting prophylactic hydrochloroquine + zinc is going to be the key to everyone resuming normal life. I think we need to start cranking it out. Someone told me the underlying source of hydrochloroquine, Cinchona bark, grows like a weed, which if true makes it seem easy. Yes, it will be a huge win for Trump. I actually blame hydrochloroquine underestimation, fueled by anti-Trump sentiment, for some of the deaths in the early period (which may not be over yet).
The OP is right, even if the drug is only barely helpful, it sets up Trump for a huge PR win that will be perceived as “Trump said the drug was right, the libs and media said it was wrong, it turned out Trump was right.” Even if the narrative is only half-true, it would be dynamite in terms of revving up his political base. They absolutely eat up the “Trump is standing alone, brave and stout, against an onslaught” narrative.
This hydroxychloroquine stuff is the aspect of this epidemic that’s pissing me off more than anything else, and it’s being driven by the right wing media and fueled by the colloidal silver cure everything BIG PHARMA is suppressing the CURE conspiracy theory factions.
There is very little chance this will work. And even when I’m posting in this forum, I’m hesitate to say “Not a chance in hell”, even though that’s how I really feel. And I’m sure the unbiased medical professionals probably feel the same way. There’s a hesitancy to be too negative.
While testing these drugs against COVID is a new thing, they have been tested against other viruses such as the flu and some other SARS types virus and shown to be clinically ineffective. The idea that these anti-malaria’s could double as anti-virals is 40 years old. It has never panned out and I don’t expect it to start panning out now.
Over the past few days, they have reported on some recent trial successes. There is some selective reporting going on as there are lots of small “observational” trials going on right now, with active and control groups of 20-40 people. In some of those trials a handful of patients in the active group did better. This is being breathlessly reported by the right wing media. But other trials show no difference .
Remember, this isn’t like cancer. Most people are going to recover anyway without an effective treatment. This means that increased scientific rigor is required.
The scary part is that the reason they are painting this picture of the miracle cure is that they think they can give the drug to everyone and “get everyone back to work”.
But I don’t share your concern that this is going to make Trump look good. He is in his element here, he’s a con artist and a huckster and selling miracles is what he does. He’s doing a great job - he even has his biggest haters and skeptics thinking “Maybe he’s right. Maybe this magic bean will work”. He’s a really really good con artist. But this is either going to fizzle or backfire bigly.
Because this drug has never had an in vivo effect against any virus, and I don’t expect this one to be different.
What if it’s not barely useful? Or what if a few people die using it? These are certainly as likely. And personally, I don’t think “barely useful” will cut the mustard for the hype that’s gone on.
A good con artist can put a spin on everything and anything to pretend the outcome is in his favor. A really good con artist can fool most of the people most of the time. These are both attributes Trump has shown he has in abundance. For his base (the conned), he will always look good, and come out of this smelling like a rose. For rational thinkers, not so much.
Trump is too old to think critically. At this point in his life, he is effectively running on a lifetime of habits and instincts that he has developed.
He will always double-down on anything you tell him he’s being stupid about and if you continue to call him stupid, he’ll triple and quadruple down on it.
CNN gave Trump billions of dollars of free advertising to get elected and they’re helping to boost hydroxychloroquine. In theory, they have a choice about stopping. They’re not a single old moron who has fried out his brain with sudafed, the media has thousands of people working, most of whom are young and capable of change.
Except, of course, that you can’t choose to not be stupid.
Hydroxychloroquine is here to stay, no matter how you cut it. Personally, I’d suggest being part of the solution rather than part of the problem. Ignore the stupid and move on.
Yeah, if this doesn’t pan out he can just “yeah, that didn’t work out but I was the only guy pushing to try new things! Everyone else wanted to hide out until the disease - and our economy by the way - died. This country wasn’t made to wait, it was made to work!”
It has appeared to me to be the best collective wisdom of doctors on the front lines for weeks now. Here is a Youtube video uploaded today which appears to be a report from such a doctor:
There isn’t time for a definitive study, and I know many responses will protest there is none yet. I regret a lot of the opposition is fueled by “Orange Man Bad” sentiment. I recommend people put politics aside and start thinking about how to mobilize to crank out hydrochloroquine + zinc.
I know what doesn’t play well: The president not letting his top expert to speak. If last evening’s performance continues, Dr. Fauci might just be emboldened to snatch the microphone. It might be a move that gets him fired. But a fired Dr. Fauci is a dangerous Dr. Fauci for Mr. Trump.
The orange man is bad. He has recommended Remdesivir and it has shown promise as a possibility. He has recommended hydrochloroquine and there’s genuinely no strong reason to put much faith into it - and particularly not as compared to some other options. For example, in regards to the French study that was conducted:
Orange man doesn’t make things right or wrong. Reality is still reality and reality wins over all. If something he says is true and correct, then it is true and correct despite that he said it and even if he had no intention of telling the truth. And likewise, something which he says that is wrong, is still wrong regardless that he said it and regardless of whether he intended to lie or tell the truth. Reality wins.
But one feature of the orange man is that, while he was never very good in his preferred vocation of real estate, he was a genuine success in Hollywood and had a similar outlook on life as everyon there - jumping into the same business as everyone there and licensing his name out while selling junk to morons.
If you want to find a fruitbat doctor who will shill for anything he can take a cut on, LA is a good place to look. As for me, I wouldn’t help him to shill for zinc, unless I was in for a cut as well.
I think his supporters and some ignoramuses might see it that way, but it’s not going to cause a seismic political shift. This magic drug can’t change the totality of the circumstances.