Earth has a twin where Mars is-past and current natural history?

Strong evidence suggests that Mars had liquid water on its surface at one point in the distant past, but lost (a substantial % of it, along with its atmosphere) it because it didn’t quite have the gravity to hang onto it.

So…replace Mars 4.5 billion years ago with a twin of Earth. Does it still have liquid water now? An ice planet instead? [Assume no big moon like we have]