It is pretty widely recognized that once societies become rich, they produce fewer children. Currently almost all developed countries are below replacement levels, most noticeably in high-growth areas of East Asia. Where fertility is above replacement, it is usually helped by high immigration. Governments have tried to subsidize childbearing in various ways, with limited success
What does this mean for the sustainability of economic growth? You may say that it’s well and good since the world is overcrowded, but even granting this, how will this trend reverse once you’ve reached your preferred population level? And if this is a problem, how can we deal with it?
Doesn’t immigration or at least globalization provide a non-stop pool of people to the developed world? Or are you considering a mythical future where everyone lives in a developed country and global population is decreasing and Segways fight hoverboards for transportation dominance?
“Statistics are usually worthless and predictions are always wrong.” - G. K. Chesterton
It is worthless discussing future birthrates because nobody knows what those birthrates will be. Thirty years ago certain parties were screaming at us about the “population bomb”, which, needless to say, never happened. Instead birthrates nosedived almost everywhere on earth, a development that nobody saw coming. Ten years ago people started worry about birth rates being too low, and predictions of “demographic collapse”, which won’t happen either. Indeed, in the last few years rates in the U. S. have started inching back up. (I don’t know about other countries.) Nobody saw that coming either. The only prediction I’ll trust is that all predictions will be proven false. Some people will choose to have children. Others won’t. How many will take each course can’t be said, since it’s a personal choice.
I tend to agree with this. Predicting population growth is a dicey proposition. However, I think there are a few regions that are already well into the danger zone for a demographic collapse and subsequent turmoil. Japan is showing no signs of reversing its birthrate reduction, no sign of increasing immigration, and at this point even if birthrates started inching up it may be too late to prevent a dramatic plunge in population.
The same is true in Russia and in South Korea.
The U.S. is in relatively good shape. It has one of the highest birthrates in the developed world, reasonably high immigration, and birthrates seem to be increasing somewhat.
Actually France has been pretty successfulin increasing birth rates through government policy. Its fertility rate is 1.94, the second highest in Europe after Ireland, and a only a little below the US at 2.01. Its model is being studied by other countries like Japan,Germany and South Korea which are worried about birth rates.
So there is no reason why a combination of French-style government incentives and moderate rates of immigration couldn't solve the problems in many other rich countries. Improved fertility technology should also help as well as steps like raising the retirement age to maintain the size of the workforce.
I think the looming pensioner burden is part of the underlying reasons for the current economic crisis, as it has been for the decade long Japanese economic crisis. An “older” nation with a dramatic shift for the worse in the pensioner to work-force ratio is simply not going to have the same economic or cultural dynamism as a younger nation. And who are going to be living in all these new and shiny big houses when half the population is looking to move to a retirement home?
It is highly irresponsible for a nation just to give up and not try to prepare for the future with the best data and predictions available. Denmark has actually had a detailed plan on how to deal with the demographic changes, a plan which have been followed by changing governments for 10+ years now. Some countries in Europe are going to be in the shitter when the changes hit them totally unprepared. But in any case you don’t have to predict the future. Some countries have been at below replacement level for over four decades. The people being 30-50 in 2039 have already been born.