Something I was just thinking of, because it feels wrong to claim that his chances are 100% if the economy is better by November '12, and 0% if it’s the same or worse; it feels similarly wrong to say that it’ll be better (or worse) by then with 100% certainty. (If you wish to argue against either of these premises, please do.)
So to what extent will the Republican nominee decide the election if dissatisfaction in the economy still remains? Where is the cutoff (e.g. “Sarah Palin has no chance, but Mitt Romney has a 50/50”)? Again, if you wish to argue that any Republican will win in those circumstances, do so, but, of course, defend your view.
The Republicans took over Congress in January 1995 and made Clinton look good as he signed their bills into law and claimed their ideas as his own. Then they ran a lousy candidate against him in '96, sealing his second term.
Same thing could happen between now and 2K12 for Obama. Except if things don’t get better in the next 2 years he’ll have someone to blame and still get re-elected.
Easiest way to get re-elected is to be the incumbent in the first place, right?:smack:
One thing Obama is going to have against him is there won’t be all that excitement about someone “new and exciting”. Despite what the right wing pundits say, he’s a pretty middle of the road president, and has continued many of Bush’s policies that everyone was so sure he’d end.
And it’s not going to be just the economy-- it’s going to be Afghanistan.
He’s going to have a tough going, and I keep thinking back to the last campaign and wondering who on earth would want to be president at that time.
The other big unknown, of course, is who the GOP is going to nominate. There really isn’t anyone out there who’s very strong except Romney. If Palin is smart (that’s a big IF!), she’ll stay on the sidelines and try to rake in the dough, like she’s doing now.
I tend to believe that economic circumstances are very important (perhaps most important). I would go so far as to say that economic and military conditions are well over 50% of the equation. Incumbency is probably easily another 30% advantage.
With that in mind I’d say something like this (odds to win, not vote percentages, and Romney is stand-in for “not Tea Party”):
Economy the same as right now (i.e. flat Dow until 6-mos prior to election day, and unemployment above 9.5% 6-mos out): Romney 65% Obama 35%, Palin 50%, Obama 50%
I think that if the Republicans run Romney or someone similarly moderate (though of the realistic possibilities, I think Romney is by far the best chance), and if the economy is no better than it is now, then the Republicans have a very good chance. But most Republican candidates (R. Paul, say) will only have a chance if the economy is significantly worse than it is now, and Palin doesn’t stand a chance even then. If the economy is at all noticeably better than it is now, then no Republican could win, though Romney would probably get it to within a decent margin.