Well, if you remember the '92 election, many of the big Democratic names didn’t get in early enough because the conventional wisdom was that Bush was unbeatable. That gave Clinton a big leg up. But that was also '92, and we’re talking about '08-- many of the primaries have been moved up, and you need to get in early to be viable. Maybe someone like Gore could jump in late and have a chance, but I don’t think many others could. The clock is ticking.
Black people have been running for president every presidential election in my memory. We’re not talking future or someday we’re talking today, and today it ain’t gonna happen. When, I think another 15 years, maybe. While I don’t share I Love Me’s urgency, it would be nice if the dems could take the White House and start pushing an agenda that I find important, say healthcare, getting out of Iraq, just to name a few. That starts with winning the election which brings us back around to the OP.
Some of you may be interested in participating in this tangential thread I started in IMHO.
When was the last time you heard of a black man running for president, who raised $25 million in campaign contributions?
I’d bet the setting would still be similar to today’s.
I agree.
LilShieste
Illinois, eh? Will she somehow work in a comparison to Lincoln, or did Obama already corner that market? 
Except by comparison with any Pub she might have to go up against, with the just barely possible exception of Thompson.
Which party controls the White House is of supreme importance. A lot of us doubted that in 2000, but the succeeding years have taught us better.
WRT that particular joke, run for president. At the time, in the darkness of the Reagan years, he seemed like the liberals’ Great Black Hope. Since then, well, his appeal has faded. When’s the last time you even heard anyone mention the Rainbow Coalition? Does it still exist? Or Operation Push?
Giuliani beats Hillary in the charisma contest by a mile. Frankly, I think he beats Thompson, too. Both have plenty of the stuff, though. Hillary’s got star-power, but that’s not the same as charisma. She’s sort of like Paris Hilton-- famous mainly for being famous.
Way I see it, a Dem POTUS, even Clinton, will get us out of Iraq at least a year sooner than a Pub POTUS, and will not even think of war with Iran. That matters.
Nor does it make them unelectable. Those forces exist, but they are less important now than at any time in our history.
Naturally a candidate is not unelectable just because they are black or female, but such a candidate does have a significant handicap. It would take a candidate of a stature that neither Hillary nor Obama currently possess to overcome the huge disadvantages they would operate from as minority/female nominee.
Colin Powell had the stature to be electable (not necessarily elected) in 2000. I don’t see any female/minority that has the cross-party gravitas to get elected in 2008.
Obama is an amazing, charismatic, almost hypnotic personality. That does not equate to the military-leadership stature that Powell had that could tilt enough “red-blooded” racist voters his way. Obama’s incredible charisma isn’t going to win him enough racist votes to make him viable.
As for Hillary-- people just fucking hate her. How is she going to get past that AND being a woman?
I was very deeply troubled that people were talking about Powell as presidential material, yet nobody seemed to know anything about the content of his politics. Politics, remember? What the election is supposed to be about? It’s not about character. Clinton was an effective and beneficial POTUS despite his misbehavior. OTOH, you can’t have more or better character than Jimmy Carter.
If Obama manages to become the Democratic nominee, I’m pretty optimistic of his chances. Call me naive, but I think his undeniable strengths will cancel out any liability posed by his racial membership. And let’s face it: the guy has enough grayness going on that a soft racist sufficiently fed up with the GOP could convince himself that he’s not really black. He’s a Halfrican-American, as Limbaugh would say, and that’s good enough for the government.
But the thing is, I have a nagging sense that Hillary will beat him when it comes to getting the nomination. There are a lot of people within the party who are loyal to her. Some Democrats may feel comfortable with her just because they know her positions better or at least feel like they do. Most importantly, though, I think a lot of (crazy) people perceive her as the surer horse to bet on because they overestimate the negative impact of Obama’s race or inexperience. So they’ll vote for her in the primaries and then we’ll get stuck with someone who has no cross-over appeal whatsoever. And I will cry.
Powell was just a powerhouse. He had a commanding presence, he was obviously intelligent and thoughtful, and didn’t sound like a politician. Add in the military experience, and you could hardly ask for a better candidate. He is (was) everything Obama is and much, much more. People trust(ed) him, and that is what I think is most important in presidential politics. You’ve got the one-issue voters on the extremes, but most of the folks in the middle (who are the ones who decide the result) just want someone they can trust to make the right decisions-- we can’t predict what circumstances will arise during the next 4 years.
And if people had any brains, they’d realize that president can’t do much policy-wise without Congress on his/her side. Presidential candidates can promise everything from tax cuts to universal healthcare to school vouchers or raising the minimum wage. But it’s Congress that is the gatekeeper on those items, not the president. Bush, for example, could never have gotten us into Iraq w/o the approval of Congress.
It’s ALL our turf!!!
I’ll also say “no” to the notion that a dark horse could win the Dem primary. Not sure about the GOP primary.
DEM: Money, money. Clinton and Obama have nuked the competition in this regard. Clinton has $26M + 10M from her Senate campaign she can use. Obama has $25M (do you guys realize what a stunning accomplishment that is?!). Edwards? I think I heard $13M.
That may not mean (although I hope it means) that Edwards (sorry, he just makes me fuckin’ ill) isn’t viable now, but what Dem is going to jump out of the woodwork and raise even that $13M?! Plus there is the fact that, even could someone still appear and raise that kind of dough, Clinton and Obama are still strong candidates.
I can find a dark horse more likely among the Pubs because the frontrunners are such clownage. Mitt (isn’t that a glove with just two fingers?) has raised $23M, putting him in the lead. Which is fine, because I don’t think there is any way this fool could ever be president. Looking at his policies and watching his speeches on his site, you’d think it was the 2000 election and GWB had never happened. Same old shyte: lower taxes, whatever.
McCain can’t win. Were there any other candidates? So, yeah, maybe a Fred Thompson could appear and do something.
I’ll predict this: Both Hillary and Obama can beat Romney.
It’s important, yes. Is it so important that we should do what some posters are suggesting - give in to prejudice in order to nominate someone who is acceptable to racists or sexists? I’m saying no.
So what’s the basis of the oft-repeated maxim (mentioned in this thread above) that the American people prefer a divided government?
He’s also not culturally African-American – that is, he is not a product of that unique American subculture, descendants of American slaves. OTOH, he did marry into that family, so he can appeal to those voters too.
How do you rate the chances of a Clinton/Obama ticket (with Hillary at the top)?