So, I actually agree with this. Like I said I’m not absolutely certain of his guilt, I just think it looks highly likely. I’m perfectly happy for people calling on him to resign because they think he may now be ineffective in office. That’s a perfectly reasonable assumption - it would take a Phoenix-level resurrection event for him to ever win a major political election again. Even admitting to an affair, as he more or less seems to have, is enough to scupper him when placed against the backdrop of everything else that was reported.
But he has rights. If he wants to sit on them and force the House Ethics Committee to do a full investigation, eh - that’s his call. I’m not going to get outraged by it, it’s just how the system works. He’ll be out in January regardless. Getting him out of the gubernatorial race was the actual emergency.
Right. But the election it can be consolidated with…is the actual election for the seat . The gubernatorial election is held on the same day as the House mid-terms on November 3rd. No point having the expense of a special election if you’re going to have a regular election anyway.
I mean the earliest you could have a special election would be Tuesday August 18 if Swalwell resigned tonight and Newsom declared it tomorrow. Too late for the primary (June). That would then fill the seat for September-January instead of letting it sit vacant. So Democrats might conceivably want to do that for the numbers. But it would sort of be a silly duplication money-wise when you’re going to hold another election in November anyway for the full two-year term.
And of course the longer Swalwell digs in and refuses to resign or hasn’t been forced out, the further out it pushes any special election date, until eventually it reaches November anyway. Normally the seats turn over in the January following the November election. I’m not sure if there is no incumbent if the newly elected House member automatically fills the vacancy in November or it just sits vacant until January.
ETA: From my reading of the relevant code the special election date can be extended to consolidate with a pre-existing election. But it cannot be accelerated, which is logical and fair. So it is normally 126-140 days and allowances can be made to extend it to 180 days (194 in effect if the governor waits the full two weeks to call for it). But it can’t be less than that 126, so June is simply not possible.
'course reading through it looks like there may be no choice in the matter - seat vacant, special election must be called. So I guess we’ll see where this goes. But a consolidated election will either not happen or if it does I think it would be one for a two-month term and another for the two-year.
There already is a special election in California this year, albeit for a different district (CA 01). But the dates don’t work. The primary is on June 2, same as the regular primary, and its general, if needed, on Aug 4.
There’s no question that the allegations and timing are political in nature. The reason the allegations are coming out now is undoubtedly because someone in opposition to Swalwell encouraged that to happen in one way or another.
None of that means that Swalwell didn’t do it. The allegations seem both credible and serious to me, so he should resign.
The fact that the bad thing he did is coming to light due to efforts by someone who opposed his political campaign does not make the bad thing he did less worthy of condemnation or less disqualifying as a (democratic, since we still have standards) candidate.
@PhillyGuy may have been speaking in generalities, it wasn’t very clearly written, but Swalwell’s accusers all seem to be people working in Democratic politics.
There was apparently much chatter for a while about “members” with these sorts of issues who turned out to be Gonzales in TX and Swalwell in CA. Gonzales was forced to drop his reelection bid.
Swalwell’s primary was still a month and a half away but in his case he may have been affected by the mood in California over the whole Cesar Chavez scandal and people deeming it timely to step forward.
Right, and there is even the slight chance he is innocent. but withdrawing from the Governors race was the right thing to do.
Right.
I agree he needed to back out of the Governors race. But this is America, and you are innocent until proven guilty. He has every right to demand a full investigation.
He has every right not to resign, but his constituents and allies have every right to pressure him to do whatever they think is best, including resigning.
I can’t see him waiting around for hearings, with all the ugliness that will likely come out of those. He will find a way and an excuse to resign after a suitable period of denial, to put the best possible face on the situation. He has to be hoping now that he doesn’t end up being prosecuted and sent to prison, compared to which keeping his seat seems somewhat small potatoes.
Back to the California governor’s race: Steyer is now flooding the TV with his commercials where he admits that he made some bad investment decisions way in the past, figured out they were wrong, and sold those investments. This shows, he says, that a person can change and become a better person (as long as it was 20 years ago).
I’d sure like to see some polling soonest to show how the loss of Swalwell in the race will affect the standings.
Yep. In California, the primary election is paid for by the state in order to select two candidates to compete in the general election. Nothing prevents a party from endorsing a single candidate before the primary election. They just can’t use the public election to do the endorsement.
Yes. We can be sure that whether allegations are credible or NOT credible, Republicans will still try to sell them. (So ‘Republicans are making accusations’ is proof of exactly nothing.)
But all allegations deserve investigation. And from the plethora of claims against Swalwell, such investigation seems likely to be fruitful.
It’s good he’s not in the governor-race anymore. As for his House seat: if he thinks waiting for a House investigation and vote will work to his advantage, he has the right to wait for that. (It’s not looking good.)
He doesn’t. He’s already said that he’s resigning from the House, too (I’m not sure when that officially takes effect).
From what we’ve heard so far, though, there should still be criminal investigations, too. What he’s accused of isn’t just unethical workplace practices; it’s rape.
. The gubernatorial election is held on the same day as the House mid-terms on November 3rd. No point having the expense of a special election if you’re going to have a regular election anyway.