Musk did not found either Paypal nor Tesla. Paypal was formed by a merger of Confinity, which was a company which originally based on the PalmPilot platform for encrypted payments, with X.com, a company founded by Musk that was originally an online bank. After a restructuring (in which Musk was forced out because of his abrasiveness with other board members and resistance to many of the business strategies which made PayPal successful) the company reorganized as what is now known as PayPal and developed the essential tools for its implementation as an online payment system. Tesla was founded by Martain Eberhard and Marc Tarpenning; Musk only came on later with the Series A VC financiing, later getting into a legal dispute with Eberhard over purported libel and forcing both founders into advisory positions and later out of the company entirely.
Musk did found SpaceX (he has a literal obsession wth the letter “X”, and reportedly originally wanted to name the company “X-Space” but financers thought that it sounded like a porn company) and in original publicity often claimed personal responsibility for many of the enabling technologies even though the original Falcon engine was heavily based on the TRW Low Cost Pintle Engine and VP of Propulsion Tom Mueller (who had worked on various pintle engine designs prior to the acquisition of TRW by Northrop Grumman) was hired specifically to develop the engine for the Falcon 1 and Falcon 5 vehicles. The personal bravado was somewhat toned down after three successive failures of the Falcon 1 vehicle prior to a successful orbital flight, after which the vehicle was retired along with the Falcon 5 because someone finally took a look at the costs and realized that it would not be profitable enough for a return on investment.
I’m personally pleased as punch that someone has put ULA to task on their costs and forced ULA CEO Tory Bruno to admit that their costs could be halved while increasing their flight rate, but I’m less enthused about some of the legal and political shenanigans that SpaceX has promulgated to challenge other competitors and win contracts. I’m also a little nonplussed about the claims of viability on a purely commercial basis after agresssively going after EELV contracts for NRO and GPS missions; I’m again happy that ULA has some competition (although on a FAR Part 12 basis rather than the FAR Part 15 that previous contractors have bid to) but there is a degree of unacknowledged hypocricy in bashing government contractors for bleeding the taxpayers only to turn around and bid for the same contracts. (It also illustrates that commercial space is still probably not large enough to sustain a commercial launch infrastructure as of yet, which has been one of the largest hurdles to expanding space industries; government subsidy, in the form of defense contracts, is still a financial necessity in the business.)
Musk is a far better promoter than he is a businessperson and (especially) an engineer. The SpaceX business model has changed radically since inception which one can argue is just being flexible but the core premises upon which ultimate success is predicated (in particular, the fiscal merits of reusability) remain unproven, notwithstanding any practical business case or practical feasibility for crewed exploration or habitation on Mars. However, it is in the technical arena that Musk’s bullshit really leaks out. His avowed techincal prowess may sound good to the general public but for people who actually work in the industry it is clear that he is repeating things that he has heard other people say, often lacking context or just being plain wrong. His reputation as a “visionary” often overshadows or is used to excuse the fact that he’s also a legendary asshole, implementing Silicon Valley-type workplace tactics like periodically firing the lowest X percentile of employees, threatening to or actually firing anyone who expresses disagreement on a technical point, and pushing out experienced people in favor of cheaper hires straight out of college, strategies that have at times backfired predictibly as turnover has resulted in lost knowledge and skill sets. Musk is known for denigrating people who express any disagreement with him which has resulted in many of the original employees leaving to join or start other ventures. (There is a story about Musk storming into the lab where engineers had been working on the in-house inertial navigation system to replace the commercial LN-200 system and separate flight navigator they currently use, slapping down his cell phone on top of the much larger flight navigation computer, and screaming about how the phone had more computing power despite the small size, apparently not understanding the difference in reliability and environments experienced by a nav system on a rocket versus a smartphone in your pocket.). Musk likes to present himself as the “real world Tony Stark” but he’s actually more of a Justin Hammer.
I’m thrilled that SpaceX has managed to be successful despite the many challenges faced by a new entrant into a particularly difficult and unforgiving industry, and impressed by many of their accomplishments such as recovery and soft-landing of the first stage (despite questioning the financial viability) but I’ll point out that SpaceX has effectively missed every technical milestone that Musk has aggressively promoted, often by many years. The Falcon Heavy, now due for an inagural flight next month, was supposed to first launch in 2012; Musk’s obtuse explanation was that “It’s one of those things that sounded easy…It was actually shockingly difficult to go from a single-core to a triple-core vehicle,” which reminds one of a similar statement about reforming health care by another famous braggart. (Everybody who has worked on or studied the use of multi-core rockets knows that the challenge is akin to launching three rockets simultaneously, except that a failure of any one rocket is a failure of all.)
There is something of a cult of celebrity around ‘difficult’/visionary/narcissistic entrepreneurs such as Musk or Steve Jobs that such assholism accompanies the supposed genius of innovation, which overshadows the fact that much of the actual technical part of innovation was done by people working on other efforts for years or decades. One could argue that the associated braggadocio is necessary to get these produces and services to market, but there are many equivalent technolgies developed with less bombast and roughshod treatment of others, and arguably with greater effectiveness of success not being dependent upon meeting unrealistically optimistic timeframes and accomplishments. This attitude of promotion over production is directly what lead to Elizabeth Holmes and the Theranos debacle. There is also the problem that being ostensibly accomplished in one field has led Musk to believe of himself (and others of him) as having expertise in areas far away from his core experience, such as his pronouncements on artificial intelligence which to anyone actually working in the field are about as naive as a child’s conception of orbital mechanics. We now get regular popsci trashicals about how Elon Musk warns that AI is going to rise up and consume humanity despite the fact that he has no real knowledge of the state of the art in machine cognition. Similarly, he has expressed pretty uninformed viewpoints on energy policy strictly on the basis that he owns an electric car and solar battery company. It leads the public (or at least, journalists which inform the public) to give far more weight to his pronouncements and prognostications than his actualy experience would merit.
I’m glad SpaceX has shown the viability of a new entrant into the space launch industry, and I hope it is ultimately successful from a commercial standpoint to encourage others to compete and innovate in those fields; the same for Tesla and Solar City. (I’m less than enthused about Hyperloop or the Boring Company, both of which seem to be predicated on the notion that if you hypothetically have the technology all other logistical, fiscal, and legal issues will melt away like salt in rain, but I guess we’ll see what the future holds.) However, I’d like to see technical and entrepreneurial leadership that does not reinforce the idea that it is not only necessary but good to be a raging bombastic jerk in order to succeed and inspire others.
Stranger