The chaos in Syria is one of the biggest foreign policy developments in this generation… Whats the end game?
My opinion - US and Russia make a deal to get Assad out and one of his trusted generals (aka Egypt) takes over
I think things have gone too far for a solution that amounts to a restoration of the status quo ante bellum. Why would the various rebel factions accept it? And ISIS ain’t about to give up its territory unless it’s conquered.
Syria is going to be a violent mess for ten years. The idea that things could be tamped down there to a manageable level in the next year or two if we only did the right thing is like saying we could control the weather if we just tried a little harder.
This presumes that it’s the US and Russia that are the driving force, and all we would have to do is stop whatever it is we are doing and it will fix the problem. That’s not the case at all, so the US and Russia doing some sort of deal will do fuck all to fix the issues in Syria. At this point, Assad shuffling off this mortal coil and joining his ancestors wouldn’t fix it either. It’s gone too far and the chaos is too entrenched for any thing to fix this in the short term.
Let’s say that happens. How does that end the Civil War? For example why would the so-called Islamic State just stop fighting because there was some general in power instead of Asssas?
Assad is not the problem; the ethnic group he belongs to (the Alawites–and which any general would belong to) is the problem for the other rebelling groups.
The endgame is the second coming of Jesus.
Have you heard the good news?
Well that is something that would cause joyous celebration amongst both the Christians and the Muslims but I’m not sure it would bring about peace.
Optimist!
I think he’s referencing the Evangelical idea that terrible war in the Middle East > Armageddon > End Times > Second Coming > Good Times. People seriously espouse this, though I can’t say how many of them have any influence on Middle East policy.
yeah, they are hoping for the second coming while millions suffer everyday from a very factual disaster…
Because then all the major international players would rally around this one figure head and focus their efforts into an organized ground-air campaign (ground not including Americans, hopefully)
Wow you’re an optimist.
I sorta wonder how many civilians have to flee the country before the lack of a population to support the government/rebels/ISIS/whoever becomes an issue. Well, support in this case probably means “be dominated by”, but whatever. The wiki article on Syrian population gives the population as 23 million in 2011, while the main Syria article gives the July 2014 population as 19 million. If they’re really losing people at the rate of a million a year (which I imagine is only going to accelerate as the place becomes more of a hellhole and more countries offer to accept refugees), at what point is there not enough left to fight over? You can’t have an army without a population to feed it and pay it, and that’s true whether you’re the government, the rebels, or a wacky jihadist.
Are you seriously asking “How many Middle-Easterners does it take to have a war?”.
Find out the population levels in 1200 CE - that seemed to be enough to kick things up.
Way to not read my post. I’m asking how many Syrians have to leave before the modern infrastructure that they run collapses, leaving no support for the warriors.
You can’t have a standing army if there’s nobody there to run the farms. Sure, you put two guys in a room and you can have a fight. But you can’t put even the ramshackle ISIS forces in the field if they aren’t getting food and fuel from somewhere.
How many do you think are absolutely required to run a modern infrastructure?
A few thousand per city - and most of the work is needed only to prevent bigger problems (replace before failure).
A society will not collapse because 50% of the people leave.
The political structure will crumble - duh. It already has, and the fighting continues.
Go back to the State of Georgia in 1864-1865. That level of destruction will cause collapse.
Losing all you programmers will not cause social chaos.
Losing your garbage collectors will present a more immediate problem, but the garbage can be put where there used to be people living.
Two.
I spy with my little eye…no, wait --I predict with my super-accurate crystal ball…
After 10 or 15 more years of war, the country of Syria will cease to exist.
There will be 3 or 4 fiefdoms, each inhabited by one and only one ethnic group, after the other residents have fled/been murdered. Each area will effectively be a separate independent country,even if it doesn’t have a seat at the UN.
Syria is the new Afghanistan. I was thinking the OP was asking what Assad’s end game is. What the neck is he hanging on for? His country is destroyed, his people are fleeing, and his allies and enemies alike would like to see him gone.