End game in Syria

So goes Russia, so goes Kyrgyzstan! Who’s laughing now? We thought the US was just up against Putin, but we’re up against Putin and Atambayev!* Didn’t see THAT coming, did you?

So, my dear Putin fanatics, let’s say the shoe was on the other foot and Obama deployed troops into Syria to hasten Assad’s departure. I’ll bet you a kajillion dollars you wouldn’t consider that a move of strategic genius. But when Putin does it, the Edward Snowden Fan Club gets all weak in the knees, hoping to see Putin drop some bombs himself on someone - ISIL, Nusra, FSA, civilians, children, or any other anti-Assad terrorists out there. I notice that no one batted an eye when Russian air strikes caused a few dozen civilian deaths.

  • This post marks the fourteenth time Atambayev’s name has appeared on the Internet, and the fourth time without a reference to getting moose and squirrel. Well, up until right then.

what does this have to do with the OP or the subject of the thread, which is the syria?

No, you’re right, handing Syria to the Caliphate would not qualify as genius.

It kind of wandered. But it is relevant to the end game. The end game of Syria is a piece in a larger game, no ? Brzezinski, Grand Chessboard, world domination etc etc ?

So nothing, it is only an anti-american reflex

Totally. I throw darts at a map of America when I’m relaxing.

Is this one of those things were you have to keep reassuring someone that you love them or they start to become insecure and demanding ? America, pull yourself together, the sky isn’t falling.

Now, back to the future of Syria, the Great Game and the world.

I am not an american and this is a very very childish response.

Your childish accusation got the response it deserved.

Only for those who choose to play such archaic games. There’s no reason it needs to be this way, and hopefully the President sees such games as pointless and contrary to America’s interests.

It is not an accusation it is the observation there is no subject linkage between vague and not very informed wonderings about empire successors and powers to the americans and the present situation in the syria, or the russian policy or the russian motivations for this policy in the syria. so now clearly admitted, it is boring.

To return to the actual subject of this thread, it does not seem to me the russians are to gain any great influence in the middle east from the support to the clan Assed. But they defend their last semi ally and perhaps they gain greater influence with the ideological shia like the Hezbollah. What they gain there is likely lost in the souring of the relations with the Turkey and the Sunni states of the middle east or the mashreq, and more widely among the muslims.

Does the Russian intervention matter or is it just forestalling the day of Assad’s fall and Syria’s Balkanisation?

I don’t know why you think my response was to you in the first place.

I think it matters in it will help keep the clan Assed viable and a beneficiary of the polarisation will be the takfiri groups. This will have the tendency to make the non-sunni see greater attraction to the Assed, who are corrupt and without morals, but will see common interest. Also the sunni non salafists may be driven away by the unlimited violence of the takfiri tendency that is shown in the DAESH.

it is hard to see the Syria coming together though from the combat, it will be like the Lebanon, with eventual fatigue that leads to settlement out of exhaustion.

And this is the end game ?

There isn’t an end game in sight. Like I said a long time ago, this chaos is going to continue for a decade. Planning for how it is going to turn out is like asking what snacks I’m going to serve for my Super Bowl party in 2023.

For the next few decades I would be wondering what environmental change will do to the area - water shortage and desertification.

America’s attempt to turn Syria into a client state is farcical, but they didn’t really lose anything. Syria is wrecked. Russia is trying to hold onto what it can.

We can’t predict the future, who knows? But the only thing that matters right now about the Russian intervention is the fact that the regime has been on the ropes badly in recent months. Make no mistake, this all shows Bashar Assad’s weakness. For them to call Russian into to bomb the rebels and the fact that Iran’s general was killed few days ago, which shows Iranian deep involvement shows how Assad is desperate. Either this works and Assad beats back the rebels or if this Russian air/Iranian ground offensive fails, than there is nothing to save Assad. There are some stupid people out there who say if we in the west stop insisting Assad leave power that things will get better, but this is nonsense and not even us can help Assad.

We will have to see how all this unfolds.

Iran and Russia are historically and even till recently not allies at all. Iran is isolated and due to some shared interests like Syria, are on the same page. Russia also due to poor relations with the west and the fact that it wants to poke the U.S in the eye. Therefore they are cooperating with each other. Iran and Russia under normal circumstances are not allies at all. China is not allies with Iran either, just an energy importer and investor in Iran.
As for the Eusasian Economic Union, it is a sham plain and simple. The members are all dictatorships and quasi democracies. None of them held referendums with their populations to see if they should join or not. Unlike the European nations.

If one of these regimes are overthrown, say Belarus, then it could simply end it’s membership in the EEU.

This is all a joke, a sham union run by Putin. Why not hold referendums? What is Putin afraid of?:D:rolleyes::stuck_out_tongue:

The reason why the program failed is because Obama acted out of self interest without taking into account the rebels’ interests either. In foreign policy you have to strike a balance, even a superpower like the U.S can’t just only for it’s interests when dealing with others.
it was clear from the get go that to have the rebels fight for our cause-fighting ISIS- was stupid and flawed. We told them “hey, here and go fight for us against ISIS, screw your wish to fight the brutal Assad regime, just fight and die for us”.
And the rebels smartly gave us a BIG F-YOUand went fought against Assad, gave weapons to those fighting Assad. One does not have to be a foreign policy expert to see this was flawed. The rebels have their own goals and were NOT going to be our puppets. In foreign policy, we make deals. “Okay we want you to fight ISIS, and we will institute a no fly zone and take out all of Assad’s fighter planes and missile”.

I knew this was going to end up being a failure for Obama, he was foolish to think the rebels were that stupid to fight and die for him.
The U.S thinks it can have puppets at will in the region-not so!

As for you Alkash, I explained the reason above, not because Putin is a genius. If he were, he would not be getting involved in Syria.

Now Russia can bomb rebels and civilians in rebel held cities all he wants, but they have been bombed non stop by Assad since 2011. That is nothing new.
The true test of success is if Assad captures, and more crucially holds on to territory taken from rebels and ends the fighting in Syria. You my darling place to much faith into air planes and bombs, well the rebels have been bombed for more than four years, what has that got Assad in all this time? The true test is on the ground, not the air darling.

That is the true test. We will have to see.