Enlistment rate in U.S. Army--is it dropping?

[chappachula]

With the war in Iraq dragging on an on, I’m wondering how it has affected new recruits joining up.

A couple months ago,I read several articles in the newpapers, all within a week or two, and then the issue disappeared.

There were mixed signals from the army.They tried to show a positive side, but it looked to me like there are real problems. Apparently, there were plenty of volunteers for the elite combat units, and there were enough recruits for the regular units.But that may have been due to “Stop-loss” orders,which force a soldier to “volunteer” for another tour. And there was mention of call-ups of recently discharged men who were still on paper as enlisted reserve soldiers but who had no real desire to be in uniform again.
So I’m wondering–what’s happening now, both in the army, and the National Guard.? Informal, anecdotal evidence is welcome, too.

[Squink]

U.S. Army Recruiting Command

FY04 Year-to-Date Accomplishments (through August 2004)
We have recruited 70,479 Soldiers for the Active Army. We have over-achieved our
year-to-date mission of 69,667 by 812, which puts us at 101.2 percent for the year.
We have recruited 19,642 Soldiers for the Army Reserve, exceeding our year-to-date
mission of 19,500 by 142. This puts the command at 100.7 percent for the year.

Enlistment bonuses are up:

enlistment bonuses for those prior service enlistees have been increased to the highest levels in Army Reserve history – up to $8,000 for a six-year enlistment or up to $4,000 for a three-year enlistment.

The Guard is having more trouble:

The army national guard, for instance, has failed to meet recruiting goals in 14 of 20 months from October 2002 through May 2004, the report said. It was 7,800 soldiers below its recruiting goal at the end of fiscal 2003.

Keeping the army’s re-enlistment figures up sometimes involves a creative approach:

two soldiers in the 4th Infantry (Mechanized) Division’s 3rd Brigade told The Rocky Mountain News that they’d been threatened with being sent to a unit deploying to Iraq if they didn’t re-enlist. The brigade is in the process of converting to a unit of action.

[hajario]

@chappachula

Informal, anecdotal evidence is welcome, too.

Well in that case, I can answer you. There was an article about this in the L.A. Times within the last couple of months. The claim from the Army was that they are still meeting their enlistment quotas for the most part and that they are doing better in terms of meeting quotas than they were five or six years ago. How the numbers for the quotas compare was not mentioned.

Haj

[Ravenman]

The Army has apparently been doing fine in terms of recruitment and retention.

BLR Eagle

However, I’ve heard that the Air National Guard had been off of its recruiting goals by a significant margin, but my understanding is that greater retention has made up for it. This is anecotal; I can’t find a cite for it.

[Squink]

The Army Guard is not meeting its recruiting goal this year:

The Army National Guard will fall short of its recruiting goal this year, in part because fewer active-duty soldiers are opting to switch to part-time service, the Guard’s top general said Thursday.
It will be the first time since 1994 that the Guard has missed its sign-up goal.
…
The Guard had set a goal of 56,000 recruits for the year but is likely to end up with about 51,000, he said.