They just called the upcoming series between the Yankees and Rays “huge.”
It’s not. It seems like it should be big–a mid-September meeting between the two teams with the best records in all of MLB, not just their division (in 1993, it would have been huge)… but really, it’s virtually meaningless, at least as far as the postseason picture is concerned.
Sweep one way, sweep the other; barring plane crashes, the Yankees and Rays are both playing in October.
Realistically, the only part of the postseason picture that remains unresolved is which one of four NL teams (ATL, PHI, SD, SF) will miss out.
It’s important because of home field advantage - the Yanks and the Rays have the two best records in MLB - the division winner will very likely have home field advantage for the ALDS and ALCS, whereas the wild card never has home field advantage in the division and league championship series even if they have a beter record than their opponents.
The Yankees are playing .662 ball at home but only .551 on the road. The difference is less pronouced for the Rays; .623 at home and . 589 on the road.
The way the series is setup the home field advantage is minimal. Wild card teams have had as much success as division winners. If you want to see how much these teams care about who wins division, watch their rosters on the last couple days of the season if the division up for grabs. Sabathia and Price aren’t starting those games.
Personally I like the two wild cards, 1 game playoff idea.
Right (well, the division title, not the league pennant, but whatever), but what do you think happens, in the post-strike era, when teams tied for their division lead face each other on the last day of the season (this has actually happened a couple times)? Do they go all-out to “win the pennant”? And do crowds and announcers “go crazy” when one does? Once upon a time, this was among the heights of baseball drama, second only to a decisive World Series game.
They do not. No top pitchers will be used; they’re being rested, and the rotations set, for the upcoming first-round series. Key starting position players are benched too, at least if they’ve had any twinges in the past month. Neither team really cares.
How about just not letting any second-place teams advance to the postseason? Then we have the possibility for desperate battles to the wire in any or all the divisions! Give the leader with the best overall record a first-round bye, and then we also get competition among the best two or three of the league, even if they’re all running away in their own divisions. Man, it would be crazy.
You’re right. The Rockies are on another late-season hot streak.
I amend my previous, “…which two of five NL teams…”
Um, to be clear, I meant when these two teams, in the same division, have the best records in their league. If they’re the third- and fourth-best teams, of course the loser won’t get the WC, so they will play hard then.
As Hawkeyeop pointed out, though, the anti-motivational effect for the best teams can be visible even before the last day, and even when the teams involved aren’t playing each other.
Rays and Yankees are in the same division, so won’t face each other in the first round. That’s what make the difference. The division winner gets to face the third place division winner in the first round, while the wild card team has to face the number two division winner. Then add the home field advantage, and teams would prefer to win the division. Any team that clinches a spot in the playoffs will give their pitchers an easy schedule through the end of the regular season.
1996 was the nadir for the anti-wild card crowd. The Padres and Dodgers, tied after 161 games, were playing each other on the season’s final day. You’d think each team would have their best pitcher ready if they really cared about winning the division.
Didn’t work out that way. The Padres went with Bob Tewksbury, who went 10-10 with a middling 4.31 ERA, the highest figure out of the Padres four most frequent starters.
The Dodgers countered with Ramon Martinez, then yanked him after one inning, ostensibly so he’d be ready for Game 1. They then threw in Pedro Astacio, who wasn’t being used in the rotation in the playoffs.
Obviously the Cardinals are in bad shape, but they aren’t throwing in the towel yet. They also have a lot of games vs SD and Col, so if the Braves falter STL is alive for the WC.
It goes without saying every game from here on out involving the 5 contending East and West teams is huge.
I’m sure all else being equal each team would prefer to win the division. They just don’t, justifiably, care that much.
The wild card isn’t really giving those races though. Both the east and west would have great races without it. It is also entirely possible the braves and phillies pull away from the others make the nl east race moot as well.
That’s not always a clear advantage for the top team.
Based on standings of this moment, the Yankees take the division and play the Rangers, while the Rays get the Twins. If I were the Yankees, though, based on past history and matchups, I’d rather have it the other way around.
Boy, are you sure? Remember, the wild card team has to play on the road, regardless of relative records. As hot as the Rangers have been lately against them, I’d still think the Yankees would still rather play the Rangers at Yankee Stadium than play the Twins in Minnesota. Especially with how huge the difference is between the Yankees’ home and road records are.
Okay, I’m not sure. I admit I didn’t really look at the Yankee home/road splits before saying that, just team vs. team and team vs. pitcher. But the point is it’s not clear that winning the division is necessarily any better than winning the WC.
There’s no evidence at all that winning the division is better than winning the wild card when it comes to winning the Series. There have been fifteen seasons with the three-plus-WC playoff format and four wild card teams have won the World Series, which is precisely what you’d expect from sheer chance.
There are some things that indicate playoff success, but home/road advantage just is not a clear one. (Surprisingly, at least to me, how hot or cold a team is late in the season does not predict playoff success.) You only get a home field advantage in the series goes the distance, and most don’t.
Sometimes the third place division winner isn’t all that great. But reality doesn’t show much difference between the wild card and the top spot. And I wouldn’t overwork a pitcher just be the division winner. But outside of the details of the teams in any one season, the top spot has a potential advantage. But teams aren’t that evenly matched, and other factors seem to make the difference between division winner and wild card spot unimportant.
I’m old, so I miss the pennant race. But that wouldn’t work anymore with the number of teams. So like the rest of the sports, the regular season is just a way to get a playoff spot. Any playoff spot. The best team usually wins in the end unless its the Yankees. They cheat.
I admit I didn’t really look at the Yankee home/road splits before saying that, just team vs. team and team vs. pitcher. But the point is it’s not clear that winning the division is necessarily any better than winning the WC.