Estimated year for 1st sub-2:00 marathon time?

[epbrown01]

@Chronos

So what happens when some unknown puts in a really good time in his first official marathon? What if his “chip time” would make him the winner, but his “gun time” wouldn’t? I wouldn’t expect this to be all that common, but I’d be surprised if it’s never happened.

Whereas I’d be absolutely flabbergasted if it did. Putting the elite runners at the front of the pack means they aren’t dealing with crowds or passing. Put the entire Kenyan contingent at the back of the pack and even they won’t have winning times - passing thru all the slower runners is too draining. To get one of the front positions where an unknown wouldn’t have that problem often requires a qualifying time from another race so there’d be some history and his chip and gun times would be close.

[running_coach]

@Chronos

So what happens when some unknown puts in a really good time in his first official marathon? What if his “chip time” would make him the winner, but his “gun time” wouldn’t? I wouldn’t expect this to be all that common, but I’d be surprised if it’s never happened.

You simply can’t race a marathon without previous experience. Not way back when and even more so, not now. The pace is too fast, too close to redline for any error.

There are plenty of cases of world-class runners going out just a few seconds/mile too fast only to crash and burn in the last few Ks.

Even when Salazar broke the WR in NY (later denied due to a short course) he was well known as a world-class 10,000m runner and was marathon trained.

[mcgato]

@Chronos

So what happens when some unknown puts in a really good time in his first official marathon? What if his “chip time” would make him the winner, but his “gun time” wouldn’t? I wouldn’t expect this to be all that common, but I’d be surprised if it’s never happened.

It has happened before, but it is extremely rare. From Wesley Korir’s wiki page:

He entered the Chicago Marathon in October 2008, but with no previous marathon experience, he had to enter the open race starting five minutes behind the professional field. He would win the open division and post the fourth fastest time overall, 2:13:53.

My memory is fuzzy, but I think that what happened was: since he started with the open race, not the elite race, he was not eligible for prize money. The race director gave him 4th place money anyway.