I spent about two years studying political violence. I’ve been told my analysis favored the worst case. So be forewarned. The following does not consider the possibility it is a third unknown group. This is unlikely as new terrorist organizations are quick to claim actions as theirs in order to propagate their agenda.
Who ever committed this atrocity is trying to have an effect on the elections in Spain. As to who did it? I’m going to go with al Qaeda or a related group. If it was the ETA they will not claim credit and will likely deny because it works to their benefit if al Qaeda is held responsible.
Significant opposition to the occupation of Iraq exists in Spain. There is already significant opposition of the current conservative government on domestic policy grounds. If enough of the public comes to the belief that they can immunize themselves from further attacks by voting out the current government, the incumbents will lose. The opposition party has already pledged to withdraw its troops and support for the occupation of Iraq. Additionally, the opposition party does not take as hard a line on the ETA. Thus ETA benefits if the incumbents loose.
Should this come to pass it would be a fantastic coup for al Qaeda and every other terrorist group in the world for that matter. In fact even if the opposition was going to win this election anyway al Qaeda can claim credit for in the very least, causing a regime change. If the conservatives lose, and I think they will, al Qaeda’s standing in the Arab world will rise to unprecedented heights. They will be able to claim that they have overthrown a Western Government. It will be able to recruit as many new members as it can handle. Its funding will likely increase as well. We may also expect to see more terrorist attacks against masses of civilians as other groups attempt to copy this event.
Like I said I’m sort of the worst-case guy. The interesting part of this forecast is that I’ll be able to see how accurate I am within the next six months.
You should have studied a bit harder or because your “conclusions” make not much sense.
You should know that “finding” miraculously a few detonators together with suspiciously convenient one casette (among seven found) that has “Quranic texts in Arabic” (which by the way you can buy everywhere on this globe in every nation where you find a few Muslims and a mosque) in a stolen car has not very much credibility in the eyes of anyone who ever learned how to use his brains.
For the simple reason that those who planned/executed these attacks did that very carefully. You don’t do that on a few days time = you don’t abandon conveniently a stolen car with some convenient left-over detonators and oh surprize a tape “in Arabic” with Quranic readings you can buy where ever you find a Muslim.
It makes me think about the ridiculous “findings” right after 9/11 attacks.
Going further on this: If the ETA is responsible it can at this stage be indeed very convenient for them to have planted - and reported- such a false lead and thus provide for some serious confusion among the investigators. One can also think of a few other possibilities that might be political interesting for certain groups or people.
You should know that “an email” send to Al Quds in London is no “proof” or even a “lead” to anything. It is an anonymous email. It is in fact known that the group claiming “the responsibility” in that email has claimed a lot of “reponsibilities” that make no sense at all.
It shall in my opinion have little effect on the elections for the simple reason that it happened much to close to it. And when listening to the comments on the subject in interviews on Spanish TV it seems that I came to the right conclusion.
This one I find you best statement:
I don’t know where you followed your “two years study of political violence” but what is obvious is that it didn’t include one shred of insight in what you call “the Arab world”. Your assertion that Arabs are completely retarded and have no clue about what happens in the world is so clear and obvious, that it makes me wonder if you in fact have ever looked further then your four walls.
It is obvious to me that you should spend those six months doing some serious research and study.
Now to the OP : I should rather follow the reasoning it is a mix of both.
As someone said here before, ETA is robbed of its long-term leaders/members and as result of this it is much “younger” and much more radicalized.
ETA has also a history of seeking contact with other terrorist organisations and is reported to have been also in contact with people suspected to have AQ connections/sympathies.
AQ on the other hand can face these days some serious difficulties to plant or maintain cells inside Spain, or in any Western nation for that matter.
Reasons enough to seek relationship/support/cooperation with ETA.
At the same time it works well for both parties - be it for different reasons - to make a statement and next to see the population putting the blame on Aznar and his policy. I would say that there is reasonable chance that it shall come to that as soon as the first shock and impact of this fades away.
Yet I think they planned it much too close to the elections to have a direct impact on that (If I was a terrorist and had that goal in my mind I would find that a serious blunder).
Salaam. A
It was al Qaeda or a related group trying to influence the elections. The articles I’ve read about the attacks mention that 90% of Spaniards were against supporting the invasion of Iraq, and this is supposed to be a reminder that voters can do something about it during the elections, I suppose. Also, all the evidence so far points at Qaeda or other related Islamic fundamentalists rather than ETA.
Aldebaran:
How is it miraculous? The detonators were found on the trains, not with the items in the van or car or whatever vehicle it was. Why were they found on the trains? Because only 10 of 13 bombs actually detonated.
Wait, you don’t abandon the car? You mean it’s smarter to drive around in the car and dump it somewhere else (where it will still eventually be found, by the way) rather than walk calmly away, leaving all the incriminating evidence behind?
Except the ETA (and almost all terrorist groups) have always taken credits for their attacks. Why would you go about “intimidating or coercing societies or governments, often for ideological or political reasons,” anonymously? It defeats the purpose if the targets don’t know who or why the attacks were carried out.
I completely agree.
Though I know very little about Spanish politics, I also agree with this, but I guess we shall see shortly.
Detonators were found in that stolen van.Also the explosive used is the same type favoured by ETA. Just a few days ago another van was stopped near Madirid full of the explosives and containing two known ETA members .
I don’t really buy the idea that Al-Qaeda would carry out such an attack to try and oust the Iraq-war supporting Prime Minister. Historical evidence suggests people feel anger more than anything after these cowardly attacks so it seems likely that it would strengthen the hardliners in the Spanish government more than anything else, and turn a once undecided/sympathetic people into much more active enemies. Think about it, those most at risk and past victims always tend to pursue with the most vigour.
If this was Al-Qaeda, I can only see it being short sighted “revenge” for the Spanish support of the Iraq war rather than trying to tinker with the political power base. As noted, possibly Spain would be chosen because it seemed an easier target than the US/UK.
If it was ETA, it looks like a spectacular own goal politically. Like I said above, I think this will cause anger and a backlash against those perceived to be on the side of the perpetrators more than anything else. I suppose there is the possibility that warnings were planned because they wanted to cause damage and disruption more than death, but then something went terrible wrong and they don’t want to admit it.
Of course, it’d be much easier for anyone to use local explosives than to smuggle it in, and this fact could be the reason why the bombs seemed similar to those the ETA used in the past.
I wonder if it would be in the best interest of anyone in the Spanish government to frame the ETA if it was AQ…?
Of course it would!, specially for Aznar, who put Spain in Al Qaeda´s cross-hairs with his unmitigated boot licking for Bush and his war in Iraq; memory regresh: Iraq had nothing to do with Al Qaeda.
So not only Spain´s intervention did nothing productive in the fight against terrorism, but now they´re being targeted and taking blows without at least the cold solace of knowing that if they are attacked is because Spain has done something to actually fight terrorism in Iraq.
Aznar and his goverment went ahead with that against the overwhelming mayority of Spain (90% against), and put his country in peril for no good reason and without benefits in the forseeable future; so the responsibility lays squarely on him, and sure as hell ought to be praying right now that AQ is not comfirmed as the attacker. If it is, he is toast.
Though the modus operandi would (IMO) suggest Al-Qaida, it should be said that it is always unlikely that it was ETA itself. If the bombing was carried out by Baque seperatists it is more likely to be a radical splinter group than ETA itself.
Whoever it was has played nicely into the hands of most western governments, as tends to happen with all such events.
To decypher where government policy is going, a good litmus test is to observe who is blamed and the reasons that are attributed to those that are blamed.
In recent years anything and everything has been blamed on the very vague collective of “terrorists”, a term that is more overusedand wrongly understood than ever imho.
Blair is quoted as saying that this is an attack “against democracy” in the “free world”.
Sounds all too familier.
As a side note, i’m sure the “jews”, “reds” or “niggers” would have been blamed at other points in history, but now we have a coverall term for the lot, how nice.
This is what happened in Northern Ireland with the IRA. The Provos more or less declared a cease fire and a new splinter group emerged called the Real IRA. They were responsible for the bomb in Omagh which killed thirty people in August 1998.
Since 5 Mossad agents were cheering with binoculars and arrested as the 911 towers fell by Jersey state police. Israel did 911. to get us to attack Iraq and give the oil to Iraq - which is now happening.
Spain was pulling out of Middle East and much like the 911 towers, Isreal sent a message. Stay in Iraq or else.
Just talked to my brother, an Air Force reservist in Spain. He lives in a hotel off-base but, if it turns out it is AQ, he and the rest of the guys will have to move to the base and be largely confined there, so they’re all hoping it’s not since downtown Seville is much nicer. He has a month to go and spending it on-base would be lousy. He’s near the main Seville train station and says security is only slightly more visible.
They were ordered to stay in the hotel last night, and had to watch the mass demonstations from the window; he says it was pretty impressive and very sad. The soldiers are now supposed to travel only in pairs at least, although most of them come and go during the daylight hours pretty freely. They’d been doing the tourist thing all over southern Spain but now have to be a bit careful. He says the Spanish people are being nice for the most part, and not blaming Americans, but they’ve been told to watch it and be extra nice and apolitical.
He also says that Spanish people smoke like chimneys and girls wear high heels everywhere, but that’s another thread.