This bit of news, probably of little interest to most Americans, got me to thinking. Last time the U.S. (technically, the UN) stuck its nose into the Somali civil war, it didn’t work out too well, the U.S. pulled its troops out, and the clan-based civil war raged on. But that was before 9/11. At present the factions in Somalia are the Transitional Federal Government (supported by Ethiopia) and the Islamic Courts Union (supported by Eritrea) – and the latter is a Taliban-like body which should be of immense interest to the Bush Administration if it is really committed to fighting “Islamofascism” worldwide. What if it wins? Will Somalia turn into the new safe haven for al-Qaeda?
OTOH, Somalia, while it has some untapped oilfields, on the whole is a very poor agricultural country with few natural resources. From a global perspective it is not important, except that its location on the Horn of Africa, across from the Persian Gulf, might acquire strategic importance in some scenarios.
At some point we have to drop the fiction that people are either with us or against us.
This is the perfect fight to start with, as there are already three main sides.
Personally, I’m more worried about us entering Lebanon.
I’m pretty sure we are involved. We have 100 or military trainers in Ethiopia, and there have been reports of US survellince planes flying over Somailia.
Of course, it would be cynical to suggest Ethiopia’s interest in this war has anything to with the fact that Ethiopia has its own Somali Region which Somalia has sometimes claimed as part of a “Greater Somalia.” Nor that Eritrea is sticking its nose in just because it wants to piss off the Ethiopians.
On the radio, last night, I heard an interesting interview with the deputy editor of The Times (of London). He had just come back from Somalia.
He said that the ‘Ethiopian Government’ really consisted of the warlords that have been making a mess of the country since 1991.
That Islamic Courts Union drove out the warlords, consist of both moderates and some extremists, and that the locals love them because they have established law and order.
In effect the ‘government’ is a menace, and by backing them against the Islamic Courts Union will create opportunities for Al Qaeda in the South.
Separately, I heard that a chunk of Ethiopia actually speaks Somali, which makes me suspect that they are trying to keep what they see as a war off their own territory. Understandable as they are primarily Christian, but have a large Moslem (ethnic Somali ?) minority population.
It is not hard to suspect that the US is doing a little quiet cheer leading for the Ethiopians.
Understandable, as the USA had a rather humilliating time there, not helped by the fact that a US Marine Captain in Signals was the son of one of the warlords. John Simpson, the veteran BBC reporter describes an amusing interview with him after he had returned to Somalia to take over the family firm.
I can understand wars in places where there is wealth (like Angola-flus with casg from oil exports), or the Congo (diamonds, uranium, copper, etc.). By where does the money 9for AK-47s, jet fighter planes, etc.) come from (in the case of places like Somalia, Ethiopia)? I suspect that these tribal conflicts are of little interest in the West, except for any effect they may have on other, more strategic areas. in any case, what does it matter if “Somalia” has a government or not? In a tribal society, central governments seem to have little importance. Somalia was (once, as a colony under the Italians) a country with a central government. Why not let the Italians run it again?
Actually, Bush the Wiser sent the troops into Somalia in late 1992, after the presidential election, to protect food distributors and aid providers. He did so after consulting with President-elect Clinton. Clinton pulled 'em out in late '93, after the Black Hawk Down incident.
And am I the only one amazed by the ass-kickin’ the Ethiopians are handing out?