This site is of upmost interest to anyone curious about the statistics of the Mormon church. Written by an active, devote Mormon, it provides a realistic counterpoint to the widely believed misconceptions of Mormon memberships, including those often quoted claims repeated by lay members and church officials.
One would think that the claim
seemingly should be fairly straightforward, and to some degree it is, but only if one considers the membership as defined by the church and not by the alleged adherents.
The issue is who to claim as a member: those identify as such, those who are born into the church, those who are baptized, or those who attend meetings. The Mormon church claims those baptized and those who are born who have not turned eight (the age of consent in this religion) and are called “children of record.”
While each church can define membership in however they wish, other churches such as the Seventh Day Adventists look at active membership rather than membership on the record.
Why this is important is that there is a tremendous number of converts who are still claimed as members by the church, but who are completely “inactive” and also who do not self-identify as a Mormon. The site estimates the about 75% of Mormons outside of the US and Canada are such, leaving a more realistic number of 25%. It doesn’t really provide the breakdown for the US and Canada, but quotes activity rates of about 40% to 50%. There are an estimated 10% of the membership who are “lost,” with the address unknown to the church. Let’s assume another conservative estimate of the people who no longer self-identify, but are still claimed (such as me, my brother and sisters) of 10%, then we can get a closer picture of the breakdown of adherents.
The current membership is given 14.1 million, with about 45% in the US, and 55% outside. Using a rate of 25% for the overseas and 80% for the US, we get a little over 5 million for the US and less than 2 million for overseas. These numbers are obviously meant to be exact, but shows that the clear majority of people who self-identify themselves as Mormon are Americans.
The site also demonstrates that the self-promoted myths of rapid growth are just those, myths, and that much more so relative to other evangelistic churches. For example, the claim that the church is “rapidly growing in Africa” can be seen in context of these churches which see considerably greater numbers of converts.
The key to understanding the true rate of growth in the Mormon church is to look at the number of newly formed stakes, as they require a given number of priesthood members, rather than paper members. The rate of growth of states is less than the rate of world population growth.
The vast majority, 80%, of missionaries are from the US and Canada, and as the birth rate of US Mormons decline, the number of missionaries, as a percentage of membership has been declining for over 20 years. With the dismal growth outside of the US, more focus is shifted to the US, where two thirds of the missions are located. This will further accent the importance of this country. The trend of diversification may well be reversed back to more people who “look like us.”
The site sees the major challenge faced by the church as retention of converts, but with further declines in the US Mormon birth rate, and hence the growing decline in the number of missionaries, and the growing numbers of “borderline Mormons” who self-identify as cultural members but who do not believe in the tenets, it has yet to see if the current modest growth rates can be sustained.
Damn, yet another reason to not go back. Sorry kids.
