hello folks…
I would like a plethoric discussion on the declining population of europe, countries like germany and (the) eastern europe -who are unable to replace their population-what are your ruminations on the matter?.. what are the causual effects? does it have an umbilical connection with the social-cultural sphere… and why do the conclaves of islam in the middle-east have data which is polar- opposite?
Other than the implications for the Tax/Retirement/Ponzi Schemes that governments generally engage in (ie, not enough young taxpayers to cover the costs of taking care of a larger number of elderly people), I personally do not see the problem.
After decades of questioning the growing population of the world and it’s impact on resources and the environment, it would seem to be a fairly positive thing that the population of the wealthier nations is actually declining. These nations will then require less resources and make less of an impact on the Earth.
So; Declining Populations = Good (in general)
The real problem is on the other end, the rapidly expanding populations of impoverished nations that do not have the climate or arable land to feed all those people.
I’ve read somewhere that a solution to the shortfall will be increasing automation, in other words robots will play a bigger role in Europe in the future. The robot butler promised half a century ago may become a viable proposition.
To give but an example, Spain had a zero population growth index for close to two decades. As it stands now, it is the world’s #1 destination for immigrants (on a per-capita basis) and has gone from a population of roughly 40 million to 46 million today – about a 15% overall increase. All in the past seven years or so.
And as you well know, legal access to Spain, gives you full entry into the EU. So there’s your answer. Our population is no longer declining but becoming more diverse in all aspects. This seems to drive some nationalists crazy – mostly xenophobic right-wing extreme parties – but hey! That’s just the way it is. If we refuse to replenish our work forces ourselves others will be more than willing to do that themselves.
Personally I don’t think it’s a big deal – in fact, I enjoy the newfound ethnic and cultural variations we now have; and not as if Spain wasn’t quite diverse before despite what said cretins above would have you believe. So, for as long as the capacity for absorption is there – and they come in legally – they’ll keep coming.
In the end, we all profit.
To each man his own robot … I remember hearing about that in the 80ies.
Europe is a big place. The birth rates in France, Ireland and Scandinavia are just slightly below that of the US, on the other hand, Spain, Italy and others have very low birth rates. The low rates in Eastern Europe are largely because of the transition from communism.
The golden rule worldwide seems to be that the richer you get the less children you have.
The result is lower productivity, and until the “plenty” dies out that means a strained economy.
I don’t see what you see about the birth rates in the Middle East. Care to elaborate?
It’s a little-known fact that birth rates have plunged almost everywhere in the world, including most poor countries. In fact, most third-world countries are moving rapidly towards the replacement rate. The only countries where birth rates are still extremely high (i.e. 4-5 children per woman) are in the very poorest countries, particularly southern Africa.
Well, I’m sure there’s one thing this world doesn’t need is more people.
That said, one of the concerns about underpopulation is that it could potentially lead to labor shortages, rising labor costs and inflation as well as decreases in property values (if Europeans care about owning houses…I always thought they didn’t). Much of that I suspect can be offset by imigration and outsourcing.
The adumbration seems to be that the ability of a country to accumulate wealth and thereby leading to better standard of life-more material pursuits,leisue for intellectual activity-can straight jacket the birth rate, is this the only explanation?
or does the decline in birth rates have something to do with the national consiousness in the geo-political schema, does for example the defeats of germany and japan , mortalized their nationality with a guilt complex(or defeat complex) and thereby these nations have unconsiously ascribed to the becoming extinct category.
Does religion play a role in fermenting hope in these issues by bringing in an *eternal * endurance category (that is why the reference towards the middle east)
I for one , am for declining birth rates given the imbalance of the world and the inevitability of the mechanistic age-robots and nano devices etc- but it is an intellectual curiosity which i speculate given the perculiarity of the falling birth rates in the stated countries, of course germany will continue to be germany- through immigration acculturation- but there is the theory that europe will dip itself into insignificance in the coming age,any buyers ?
This bears repeating. Most people still think in terms of “rich western countries, with few kids and long life-expectation” versus “poor thirdworld countries with large families and short life-expectations”. Reality, in the past thirty years, has shown a much more complicated, but also much more positive picture.
This Youtube clip, Debunking Myths about the Third World is a 20 minute Powerpoint lecture by a Swedish professor on this very subject. The lecture is very, very well done and absolutely worth watching, if you like to hear some good news about the world.
As for **Sankara’**s question, on of the conclusions that can be drawn from the statistics is that first you need to give the inhabitants of a country health, and then smaller families follow, with more wealth on its heels.
Excellent info there, IRT and Maastricht – and yes, the clip is certainly worth watching.
Disclaimer: I’ve said nothing about wealth and birth-rates. Simply answered the question dealing with “Europe’s declining population.” I think it for the most part, a canard and I explained why.
Interestingly, I heard on NPR that you have quite an influx from Latin America these days, although there’s no doubt the vast majority of emigrants from that region still head north. I imagine the shared language must be attractive, as well as those aspects of Spanish culture that have been adopted in the New World.
In a country with a low birth rate and an ageing population, I would expect that real estate values would drop. Is ths the case?
On the contrary! No, not in the Netherlands anyway. As long at the low birth rate and ageing population stay accompanied by wealth that stays the same or even increases, the result is just less people per house. If people can afford the independence and the extra sq. feet, they will. The Dutch don’t even have the roommate system to the same extent the USA has.
Take my own family for instance. Early seventies, the four of us, mom, dad, two kids lived in very modest three bedroom house. Now my mom lives there alone, part of the year AND she has a house (make that a double house, including a guest apartment) in Spain. So her livign space effectively became 4 times 3 = 12 times larger! My dad has the entire floor of a factory to himself and his workshop. Both me and my brother live with our families in houses that have many more sq. feet per person then the house we grew up in.
Mod Warning:
C’mon. You know that direct name calling is not permitted and I see no way to view this as direct name calling of other posters.
Stop it.
[ /Moderating ]
What?! Sorry Tom, but you’re way off base on this one. I don’t think you can construe what I wrote as anything but calling the immediately above part of my post “…some nationalists crazy – mostly xenophobic right-wing extreme parties – but hey!” cretins. Which is made pretty clear by the fact that there’s no reason for me to insult anyone else here.
I mean, who else would I be directing that comment to? 
No one here has said anything remotely controversial IMO, so why would I “insult them”?
I can’t even see how you’re parsing it that way – again, to which poster/s posters would I be alluding to? And why?
A cite to further augment/prove the argument I was making:
The Campaign in Spain Could (Mainly) Be A Gain
– bolding mine. Those are the people* I was alluding to in the post that got me the warning.
Beyond this particular disagreement, the whole article is a good read for anyone interested in an overview of Spanish policies and economic trends.
*NB: I am NOT even accusing all of the PP, just their more radical elements – exactly as I wrote in the ‘controversial’ post. Although it also needs to be said that during the pre-electoral debates, Rajoy had no compunction pandering to those groups and coming off as more than a bit xenophobic himself.