Evaluating when you feel comfortable travelling

The Quarantine Zone
1

I’ve got my 2nd dose of Pfizer scheduled for 4/28. There’s an important family event 1500 miles away on 5/1. I won’t be fully vaccinated according to the standards; that takes a full two weeks after the 2nd dose. CDC recommendations is to avoid travel and large groups, both of which I’ll encounter on this potential trip.

My current plan is to not go. I don’t want to travel until I’m fully vaccinated. While the service and reception will be outside, there will be 200+ people in attendance and the area of the country isn’t know for its firm following of guidelines. If I were fully vaccinated, I’d go and take all precautions. My wife is fully vaccinated and is going.

How would you go about assessing your risk in a situation like this? I know that I’m fairly well protected after the first shot. I’m concerned about travelling so soon after the 2nd shot because of the side effects but I had no problem with the first dose. If I don’t go things will be fine, I’m not worried about the family fall out. I’d like to attend, but I want to be safe. I didn’t take all these precautions for 14 months just to blow it during the final stretch.

Thoughts?

2

I chose to continue behaving as if I were vulnerable until the full effect kicked in. Even for next fall, I’m taking a direct flight to see my mother in order to minimize exposures. It’s from a state with a low case rate to a state with a low case rate, bypassing the Texas, Florida, and Georgia hubs for reasons.

3

That’s the problem. There is no “safe”. There never was. All there is is “more safe”, “less safe”, and “safe enough”.

The legit challenge you face is to decide how safe is safe enough, then compare how safe you’ve been to your chosen level of enough. Then see if your incremental risk fits that budget.

We’ve had 30,000 crewmembers flying all over the country and some overseas throughout COVID from last March through now. Many are vaccinated now, but zero were vaccinated just 4 months ago. Just like everybody else before there was a vaccine.

A small percentage of crew have gotten COVID. About in line with the COVID rate of the outside world. The implication is that travel isn’t that incrementally dangerous over ordinary COVID isolating life at home.

I’m sitting in the passenger cabin of a 100% full airplane as I type this. The airports are full of people. Today I’m traveling for my business, not for my job, so it’s sorta optional, but not really. But optional or no, I’ll still be exposed to a hotel, restaurants, etc., for 3 days and a full flight going home. Having just gotten home yesterday from 3 days on the road, and 30 in the last 60.

I get my second shot this upcoming Fri, so I believe I’m as immune now as I’m going to get. The second shot seemingly is more about longevity of immunity, not degree of immunity.

If you are somebody who’s not left your house for 14 months, your incremental risk of traveling this week or next is huge. But starting from an extremely low base your absolute risk is not very big. As shown by the millions of people who have not stayed home never venturing to the grocery store the whole time and instead, despite working and being out in public (albeit carefully to varying degrees), have not gotten sick.

I’d suggest the real threat for you is not the travel itself. It’s from a reception with extended family. That’s where everybody unmasks, pretends there’s zero risk because there’s no “stranger danger” from family, etc.

Right now I’m sitting in highly ventilated but very close quarters with 180 strangers. They’re all wearing masks and minding their own business. In fact half are asleep. I feel safe … enough. If they all took off their masks and started laughing and carousing I’d be worried. Not terrified, but legitimately worried. Vaxxed or not.

Remember that the vaccine itself, even after the 2 weeks is not a magic amulet of health. Whatever your pre-vax odds of getting COVID were in any particular circumstances, your post-vax odds are ~10% of what they were. So think about a revolver with 10 chambers in the cylinder & 1 bullet.

The odds of death are greatly reduced, nearly to zero. But not to zero. The odds of severe illness are also much reduced. But again not to zero.

You’ve apparently decided that 2 weeks after second shot is “safe enough”. Is it for the particular risk you plan to run at that reception? And is where you are now, ~3 weeks after the first shot really that different?

I know I don’t know for certain for me, much less for you. This is as much a gut check as it is science. I for one fully expect to be avoiding large unmasked groups for years. Because I don’t think we’re actually going to get COVID under control to the degree that packing a stadium or a theater unmasked will ever be smart / safe enough again.

My bottom line for me, not you: Would I travel to that city taking all the precautions I can? Sure. Would I attend the service? Probably depending on the details. But I’d have set my parameters for how COVID-conscious the crowd needs to behave and if they don’t meet standards, I’m outta there. Would I attend the reception? No.

MYMV. Good Luck !

4

Personally, when I get to two weeks after my second injection, I’m going to assume that I’m okay (and that it’s moral) to gather in enclosed spaces with strangers (not nearly as many as sporting events or concerts, though; those kinds of things usually aren’t my bag).

I tend to agree, though, with the idea that the only option that is “definitely safe” no matter what the circumstances is not being with other people, period. I’ve never really agreed with all the people who say that they’ll wait until The Authorities give the all-clear before resuming “normal” activity; I don’t think an unambiguous all-clear will happen in any sort of reasonable time frame. It might never happen. I think eventually, we’ll all have to make a judgment call without the comfort of an authoritative body giving us a 100% unambiguous and certain okay. What you do then is up to you.

5

What makes the difference to me here is that your wife is going. I assume she is not going to quarantine when she comes home, she you take on a lot of risk just by exposing yourself to her upon her return. Yes, she is vaccinated, but the question is the incremental risk not of the last fourteen months vs. you going. It’s you staying home, then being exposed to everything via your wife, vs. direct exposure.

In other words, one way or another, you are going to have some exposure, unless your wife also stays home.

If you don’t go, and she does, the risk is somewhat less, of course, over both of you going, and if you are in a high risk group, that’s when you should probably stay home-- but then, maybe your wife should think about staying home as well.

If you are not in a high risk group, and you can mask, distance, and handwash/sanitize frequently, the incremental risk of you going might be worth assuming.

You may be very risk-averse, though, and even a very small decrease in risk is worth it. I cannot tell you what to do. Or maybe you are indifferent to the gathering, in which case, there is no trade-off for assuming the risk. In that case, absolutely do not go.

6

We’re fully vaccinated, but are still being careful. Luckily my close family and friends agree. My daughter and her fiancé (fully vaccinated) are eloping May first to a park in Utah(?). We’ll be attending online.

We will be going to St Martin this winter, unless things change. I’m not 100% comfortable with this, but will go I guess.

7

My wife is a school teacher, and she’ll be back at work with her middle schoolers by then, all of which are unvaccinated. I get my second dose the day the students come back to the classroom, so I have a risk of exposure regardless. I’m not in a high risk group but I have had lung problems in the past, especially after I had whooping cough, so I’m pretty cautious about this.

I’m aware that there isn’t a bright line between safe and unsafe, it’s all a matter of precautions and percentages. Right now I still feel comfortable in my decision not to go. I appreciate the perspective that people are giving here, I’m still weighing my options.

8

Risk assessment is about trade-offs. The incremental gain may not be much, as far as lessening your risk, but if your perceived benefit is close to nil, then the choice is clear.

9

Unfortunately, I would love to attend this family event. It would be a brief but meaningful visit. If it wasn’t for that I wouldn’t be debating this.

10

There is some incremental improvement in immunity after the second dose, and unfortunately, your event comes so soon after your second dose that you won’t have that, yet.

But you get most of the immunity from the first dose. Your odds of serious disease or death are quite low. And I agree with LSLGuy that more of your risk will come from the family gathering than from the travel.

How bad would it be if you caught a mild case? Are there vulnerable people that you regularly interact with? Personally, I’m concerned about bringing it home to my unvaccinated husband, and my vaccinated-but-immune-compromised mother.

What’s the incidence of infection where the event is? And where the other invitees live? Your risk is not only determined by your vaccination status but by how prevalent the bug is in your vicinity.

We are having these discussions, too. My hobby is (used to be?) square dancing. That’s obviously a fairly high-risk activity. I’m planning to attend an event soon, with about 35 people, mostly vaccinated, strict mask rules, and excellent ventilation. But there was an event last night with about 85 people, more closely packed, more of them unvaccinated, and the publicity had just a quiet note about masks, so I doubt mask-use was well enforced. That exceeds my current risk threshold. (Which is a shame, because it would have been a really fun event. But not worth it. Certainly not until my husband is vaccinated, and probably not until our local infection rates are a lot lower.)

I’m older than most of my dance friends, so they are not yet vaccinated. The chatter over the weekend was all about who had found appointments when. So in a few more weeks I expect them to all be vaccinated. (along with my husband.) Then I expect we will gather in groups of 10-20 with mediocre ventilation but good adherence to masking. I’m not going to worry at all about those events, except that I will probably quarantine myself from my mother for a few days after, and skip a visit if I feel under the weather.

But I don’t plan on attending any large events until the overall incidence of covid is a lot lower than it is now. Partly for my health, but also because I want to do my part to lower the spread.

11

I agree with this. I predict those waiting for the CDC, Dr. Fauci, or other health authorities to say we’re 100% in the clear will be waiting a very long time. Keep in mind these are the same authorities that recommend you always cook your steak well done, never have more than two alcoholic drinks per day, never drive over the speed limit, and are 100% against eating raw cookie dough. Do some people follow all these guidelines? I’m sure there are some. But most do not. Government health authorities are risk averse and really have little to gain and lots to lose by giving the OK on any behavior that increases risk. I think masking, social distancing, etc. will come to end socially long before government health officials drop these recommendations.

12

The event is in a deep southern state where the numbers aren’t that good. My family hosting the event all had Covid but are now vaccinated, and many of their friends have had it. While masking is required at the reception, it will involve people eating and dancing, and I suspect a lot of masks will be off. There will be 100 kids in attendance.

13

So… how much do you want to attend, and how bad would it be if you contracted a mild case of covid? Maybe you can plan to attend but quarantine yourself for a week or two afterwards, so you don’t contribute to the spread where you live.

Also, plan to return home immediately, so that if you DO pick something up, you won’t yet be infectious as you travel home.

And with all that, the odds are you won’t catch it, of course.

14

@Telemark: You’ve mentioned kids twice.

IANA expert, but as far as I can tell the official word is that, exactly the opposite of flu, kids are not much COVID carriers. So if you’re thinking “It involves kids so it has to involve a high risk of spread and infection”, you’re thinking wrongly.

I’m not in education, nor do I have kids or routinely encounter kids under about age 30.

It may well be that the practical experience of teachers all across the country is the little blighters are massive COVID carriers. If so, please enlighten us all.