If Friedman repudiated that “real reason” in his article, I’ll be damned if I can find it. He asserted it uncritically and without providing any reason to believe that he did not share the same belief.
We all agree that this war was sold on the intelligence reports claiming WMDs.
We put a lot at stake on that issue – the credibility of our intelligence agencies and by proxy, the credibility of our nation and any allies who signed on to this endeavour. Beyond addressing whether WMDs exist or not, we need to ask how accurate our pre-war intelligence was, as well as how it was analyzed.
This is not a simple matter of WMDs now becoming irrelevant with discovered human rights abuses. If we can’t trust our intelligence and military information gathering, we can have no trust in those reports either.
You know, we went thru a “crisis of intelligence” at the end of the cold war when we learned our info and projections about the strength of the USSR was way, way, off. I’m not sure how many of you remember this, but it was a big deal. Somehow we and the intelligence community survived that “crisis” and I’m sure we’ll survive this one.
I’m not condoning or rationalizing errors. Just pointing out that these “crises” are often more in the mind of the beholder than anything else. Maybe some heads will roll, but even now the polls show that a large majority of the US population still support our actions in Iraq even if WMDs are never found.
Or without any reason to believe that he did.
We already know about the reasons: they were a pack of foma.
After all the talk of WMDs, it turned out that the war plan involved no attempt by coalition forces to secure the prospective WMD sites that they went whizzing by on their way to Baghdad. So any claim that this war had anything to do with WMDs was a lie.
And when the WMD sites were looted to the ground before we could come back and check them out, how worried did Bush, Rumsfeld, Wolfowitz & Co. act about that? Triumphant, that’s how worried they acted.
Whether or not there were WMDs in Iraq, this crew never actually believed there were WMDs, never planned as if the risk that allegedly justified the war - their falling into terrorist hands - was anything to worry about.
As I keep saying, this has reversed the whole field with respect to the WMD argument. The best Bush & Co. can hope for is that none are found; in that case they only lied to get us to invade and occupy another nation. But if there were in fact WMDs at these places, and they are loose in the Middle East, may God help us.
Now, the question is, will the Good Thing remain? I sure hope so, and it could yet happen. It depends on how serious our commitment to Iraq is. Before the war, it was so serious that we didn’t even have a plan for after the quick victory that even the peaceniks expected.
But we’d better be ready to ante up tens of billions of dollars a year for 5-10 years. We’d better be ready to involve the UN, because while we’re aces at fighting wars, we’re less than brilliant about keeping peace. Besides, this is going to take hundreds of thousands of troops for awhile yet, and we don’t want to keep that much of our force tied down for that long.
There are still so many ways this can go wrong. Civil war amongst Shi’ites, Sunnis, and Kurds. Warlords. Gangs. General civil breakdown. These things don’t have to happen, but they still could. (Except the marauding gangs, which are a fact of life there already.) We’re a long way from demonstrating that Iraq will have been better for our intervention.
There’s only one way to have this war even result in a mixed outcome, and that’s to win the aftermath, and lay the foundation for a better Iraq. But having lied to us about the war, Bush needs to level with us about the aftermath, and the costs and commitment involved. I frankly don’t think the little twerp has the guts.
I might add that this wasn’t a crisis of intelligence, since it wasn’t as if the CIA and DIA were selling a skeptical Administration on WMDs. The only people who were selling the WMD story were the Administration, and they apparently didn’t believe it to begin with.
Yes, though the point that is being debated here is whether that’s a good thing. Plus, I would expect that most people who answered ‘yes’ were assuming, and probably reasonably enough for most people, that Bush and the intelligence community were not deliberately misleading us in any way, which is a subject obviously up for debate.
Anyway, I’m sure most people would agree that if, if, there was deliberate misleading on the part of the government about the WMD issue that there should be consequences. And I think they’d agree that it’s a completely separate issue from whether the war itself was a good or bad thing, because it is, IMO.
Actually, it would be extremely difficult for a post-war Iraq to be worse than a pre-war Iraq. It might be nearly as bad (unlikely, but within the realm of possibility), but that would require another strongman deliberately self-schooled in the tactics of Stalin (or equivalent, of which there are merciful few), at the helm of a large, well-entrenched and -organized party of thugs.
The democide rate in Iraq was averaging damned close to 10000 people a year, and that’s not counting the slaughter of the Iran/Iraq war. The torture rate was far higher than that. If some of the internal groups in Iraq are even close to telling the truth, you can add another 20000 to the above number, per year (averaged out).
It’s going to take a lot of neglect to reproduce that kind of horror. If nothing else, we’ve (accidentally, unintentionally, to be sure) cut the civilian deaths by government in Iraq by thousands every year. Now that the sanctions are lifting, we’re (more intentionally, though hap-hazardly) also cutting the death toll of civilians by reason of international policy (which policy had the support of a lot of the nations now pointing fingers). The sanctions, morally bankrupt devices that they were, killed nearly as many, I suspect, in recent years as did Hussien and his ersatz Einsatzgruppen.
Not that makes a Wrong Thing into a Right Thing, but then, there’s a lot of hypocritical criticism by a lot of countries out there. Yup, if the WMDs don’t exist, we’re dirty as hell, but I’d like some of the Oh So Holy critics out there take a shot at explaining their own countries’ slaughters, invasions, and assorted other crimes. They won’t, of course. They’re having too much fun playing at being offended saints.
Follow-up:
I guess what’s required is for individuals to hold their governments accountable. That means, of course, getting off of their flabby asses and getting to work on the subject. Most won’t, being plenty happy to lounge about and whine about the problem. A few will, and will get labeled “looney fringe,” and be ignored. Meanwhile, governments will continue to go on doing what they do. As long as people en mass are not willing to get off their asses and bust their humps, that is the way it will continue to be, world without end.
In short, as my sig used to read: “Go out and fix the system.”
And I mean that globally.
Leaving Bush out of this for the sake of argument (because too many people on this Boards simply can’t view him objectively), do you think Powell didn’t believe there were WMDs? As I understand it, he went thru the documents from the intelligence community with a fine toothed comb before going to the UN. He threw out a lot of “evidence” and used only that which he felt he could credibly defend in front of that body.
I find it hard to believe that Powell (and Blaire and many Democratic Congressmen) were simply stooges for Bush or were in on some conspiracy to dupe the American people.
Granted, these pols were predisposed to believe WMDs exist. But I think most people, including most of the anti-war folks on this board, did in fact believe or suspect that WMDs did exist in Iraq, although they didn’t think that was justiifaction for war. And not because they believed Bush, but because S.H. certainly acted as if he did posses the WMDs, whether he did or not actually posses them.
**John Mace **, ultimate responsibility rests with the president. If he chose to believe those who were giving him bad information it is still his responsibility.
>> do you think Powell didn’t believe there were WMDs?
Colin Powell called prewar intelligence reports “Bullshit.” I believe things would have gone much better if Powell were in charge instead of Rumsfeld but that is neither here nor there. The government acts as a whole and the president bears ultimate responsibility.
>> I find it hard to believe that Powell (and Blaire and many Democratic Congressmen) were simply stooges for Bush or were in on some conspiracy to dupe the American people.
There were many dissenting voices and they were shouted down and their patriotism questioned. It was a frenzy where there was no room for reasoned dissent.
>> Granted, these pols were predisposed to believe WMDs exist.
Yes, the evidence which supported that was given weight while the evidence which pointed to the contrary was just discounted. They had made up their minds and evidence to the contrary was deemed to be bad evidence.
>> But I think most people, including most of the anti-war folks on this board, did in fact believe or suspect that WMDs did exist in Iraq, although they didn’t think that was justiifaction for war.
In any case they were never a real threat to the USA and not a justification for war.
>> And not because they believed Bush, but because S.H. certainly acted as if he did posses the WMDs, whether he did or not actually posses them.
Actually SH acted like he didn’t have them. In the days leading up to the war when the USA refused to send inspectors he took reporters on tours of the sites the USA was saying had WMD.
Actually Colin Powell just recently defended the use of those prewar intelligence reports.
Pinochet, Pinochet, Pinochet.
-
True, but I was respoonding to someone who claimed the “administration” was skeptical. My point stands.
-
Misleading. Your cite clearly shows that Powell did not dismiss all the evidence which is exactly what I said. My point stands.
-
Your opinion that they were “shouted down”. But even if it were true. it doesn not disporve my statement. My point stands.
-
I’m not sure if we agree or disagree on this. I clearly stated that Powell threw out what he thought was bad evidence. My point stands.
-
You repeated what I said with slightly different wording. My point stands.
-
I guess this one is debatable, and is mostly opinion. But, given the choice between believing Bush, Powell, and Blaire, vs S. Hussein, I would chose the former three. You appear to be saying that you believe S.H. I guess we just differ on this one.
John, I’m saying I believe Bush. Not what Bush said, but what he’s done.
The ‘benign neglect’ of known prospective WMD sites in the war plan is a matter of record, as is the importance (none) assigned by Bush and his administration to the looting of those sites before we could ascertain what was, or wasn’t, there.
So the question, to me, is not whether I believe Bush & Co. or Saddam Hussein. In the case of Bush, Rumsfeld, & Co., the question is whether I believe their words or their actions. That’s an easy call.
The question about Powell, I’ll leave to the thread devoted to him that sailor has mentioned.
Pinochet, Pinochet, Pinoche-e-et, Pinochet, Pinochet, Pinoche-et…Pinoche-et, Pi-no-chet!
all together now:
Well it now appears that the ‘big bad evil man that eats babies’ was telling the truth and that ‘the leadership of the free world and grand promotor of democracy and morals’ have been lying.
Interresting times…
Why did the US pull out of the International Criminal Court?
I don’t think I have ever seen a better example of the meaning behind the term “Self-Righteous”. I hope your moral system actually turns out to be the absolute best from an objective viewpoint and all the people of the world who disagree with your moral imperatives see the light pretty soon, otherwise we’ll end up fighting a damn lot of wars while we try to bring enlightenment to the heathens.
Enjoy,
Steven
Tranquilis, I disagree. Civil wars can easily be worse than a Saddam, while they continue. They’re a real possibility here, given the divisions in Iraq. If there’s a relatively quick winning side to such a conflict, then you’re right - that winner will probably be preferable to Saddam. But in an impoverished country, no side may have the resources to establish dominance.
Another possibility is even worse - a country divided between rival gangsters/warlords in perpetual combat, each maintaining control over their shifting fiefdoms through fear and intimidation.
I’m not saying any of these things will happen, but they have to be regarded as part of the set of possible outcomes. The game isn’t won until we leave behind a self-perpetuating government capable of maintaining basic order, without being as bad as Saddam. And IMHO the first part is at least as much a challenge as the second part.