EVs: the likely field emerges.

Great Debates
1

We have had several threads before which have debated the possible success or failure of Extended Range Electric Vehicles (EREVs), Plug-in Hybrids (PHEVs) and pure Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs). Concerns over cost and range anxiety and utility for all comers are duly noted. Nevertheless a likely set of initial competitors realistic for middle class consumers wanting a family car that drives like a car (maybe for middle class; certainly more than the Tesla Roadster or Fisker) is emerging to hit in earnest in 2011 to 2012 and I wonder how posters believe the competition within the set will play out - assuming for the sake of discussion that gas prices are high enough to drive sales of EVs in general.

Of course there is the Volt. Currently being released in small numbers in 2010 and a 10K run in 2011, then upping production (with one presumes lowered cost) in 2012. Allegedly 40 miles on all-electric and then forever on an ICE recharging the batteries. In a meaningless bit of hype advertised as likely getting 230 mpg in a likely EPA combined cycle. Priced likely around $40K and unsure if that is before or after rebate. Yes, at that point not hitting middle class consumer until volume gets up and prices come down - unless it is a helluva rebate.

Then the Nissan Leaf. A pure BEV with a likely 100 mile range and true car performance except that it is real peppy off the line (electric motor equals torque from the get go). No cross country trips with this baby - it’s for people who have an outlet and commute within that range comfortably - and who either fly farther than that, or take a train, or have another car for the family road trip. Less to service or break down (No ICE or transmission). Probably $25 to 30K. To be released to fleet customers and maybe lease only in 2010 then 2011 for wider distribution. Designed with future public rapid charging in mind as Renault Nissan is working with Project Better Place.

Ford Focus EV is expected to come out late 2011. Also a 100 mile range pure BEV and likely priced near the Leaf.

BYD, the Chinese battery maker moving into EVs and invested in by Buffet, is moving up its US launch to 2010, but in small numbers. Perhaps more in 2011 to 2012. Like the Volt likely priced over $40K. Range expected to be 186 miles. No reputation to trade off of. Either way.

Many other Chinese auto concerns are believed to be planning on releasing soon as well, but likely for the Chinese market to start.

Toyota is going slow with plug-in. If they release their plug-in Prius it will have little all electric range to start.

Honda is finally saying they’ll play EV but don’t expect anything from them until 2015.

Tesla’s Model S, maybe priced at $50K, gives more for that extra money - seats seven (these others generally seat 5), 160 mile range standard and option to get up to 300 for extra bucks, quick - zero to sixty in under 6s. But $50K is out of this middle class family competition by any stretch of the imagination. Assuming it gets built at all.

Likewise the Smart EVcannot function as a family car so is also not included. Nor is the Aptera, as much as I like its devotion to form following function.

So we have a $40 K plus EREV Volt, a $40K maybe less BYD pure EV with 186 mile range, and two 100 mile range pure BEVs priced likely under $30K (before rebates?), all trickling into the market in 2011 and coming out in decent numbers to the US market (so they say) by 2012. Maybe some that I cannot think of.

How will they compete amongst themselves? Will the US market even be the driver by then or will the Chinese market eclipse it?

2

There’s a South African entry in the game, the Joule. Expected to retail for around $22K. Available mass-produced in 2012, limited numbers should be out next year. If the pricing structure holds, at 400km range and 130 km/hr top speed, it should be quite competitive. In terms of styling, it seems to take lots of points from the (immensely popular here) Renault Scenic family.

3

This is just IMHO but the only one that I would consider is the Volt and it will have to get a lot cheaper before I would buy one. I just can’t imagine buying a car that takes hours to recharge after 100+ miles or so. But then, I live way out in the country and driving 150 miles/day is not all that unusual.

4

Indeed. I have a 40 mile commute to get to work, and no way to plug it in at work (I think. Unless they make one that just plugs into a normal socket, in which case I could probably pull something off that way…).

We’re actually going to be looking at a new care in 2012 or so, and electric is very much on our mind, if they can make one that charges fairly quickly with a base range of at LEAST 150 miles.

That being said, the largest factor for us will be price. I am willing to pay a few thousdand more for an EV, if it can handle my needs, but there’s no point if it won’t.

5

From the article on the Joule:

This car has the right idea.
I wonder if they put solar panels on the trunk and hood too, could it get 45-60km a day from the sun?

6

Interesting about the Joule although it seems like it is not designed for the US market - I notice the steering wheel is on the left!

Yes Tristan, regular socket is a standard option. You can also go with a 220 volt service that requires a special outlet installed.

7

OK, now that we have a Volt and a Joule, is anyone planning on releasing a Coulomb?

8

GE will since they own NBC. Unfortunately, it will only run every 4th Sunday.

9

Some comparison measures:

A gallon of gas has about 32.91 kilowatt-hours of energy.

The Chevy Volt has a 16 kilowatt-hour battery, which is supposedly good for 40 miles on battery alone. But only 8.8 are usable. That comes out to about 220 watt-hours to drive a mile. Let’s round to a nice 150 watt-hours per kilometer.

So, for each kilometer you drive, you have to come up with 150 watt-hours of energy.

Here’s the spec sheet for a 280 watt Suntech solar panel, of the type you might find on an RV. This panel is 77 inches long, 39 inches wide, 2 inches thick, and weighs about 60 lbs not including mounting hardware, inverters, etc.

That panel, if left in full sunlight for 8 hours, will generate 2.25 kilowatt-hours of energy. Enough to get you about 14 km down the road. That doesn’t include the losses you’ll incur charging the battery, running the inverter, etc. In the real world, I’d guess you’d get closer to 8-10km of juice. A complete system including that panel would set you back maybe $3,000.

At a cost of .10-.15 per kw-hr that you’d be normally charged by the power company, that solar penel is saving you maybe 30 cents a day in power, or maybe $110 or so per year. It will take you close to 30 years to pay off your solar investment. Assuming the sun shone 8 hours a day, every day.

That’s the state of the art today. Solar just isn’t as advanced and practical as many people think.

As for the Joule, I’ll believe their numbers when I see them. A 400 km range in an electric car? That’s 10 times better than what the Volt can do on battery alone. A weight of 945 kg? The Nissan Leaf’s battery weighs 200 kg and give it less than half the claimed range of the Joule. Since they look to be similar in form factor and wind resistance and whatnot, let’s double the size to get up to the Joule’s range, and call it 400 kg. Leaving 545 kg for the weight of the car. Not bloody likely.

The Nissan Leaf’s numbers look more reasonable.

10

In a competition among the Volt, Focus EV, Leaf, and BYD, I think the Volt gets the biggest slice of the market. Reasons:

  • The BYD looks like it will be priced at ~$40K, same as the Volt. For the same $40K, you get unlimited range and a network of service providers with the Volt, so the Volt beats the BYD.

  • I can’t get to the Leaf’s page right now, so I don’t see anything about its price. it would have to be a lot lower than the Volt to make up for the limited range.

  • The middle- to upper-middle-class buyers who are looking at $30-40K for a car will want to spend it on a car they can use for everything. My wife and I could plunk down $40K for a car if we really wanted to, but unless we want to be a three-car family (we don’t) we want both cars to satisfy all car-based needs (going to work, going cross country to visit family, going on the odd business trip). The first time she took one car on a cross-state business trip the same week I wanted to visit the parents, we’d probably have to rent an ICE car. No dice.

Volt wins IF it does what they say it can do and IF they can explain how it works to enough buyers.

11

I still don’t understand why we don’t already see plug-in versions of the existing hybrids. An adapter to plug into a standard house outlet would be neither difficult nor expensive to make.

12

I dunno why, but I love the Aptera and would buy one - except that they will only be available in Cali AND I don’t think they will ever really be released. They’ve been “coming out” forever.

13

When testing the various low-end Hybrids, Car and Driver noted that, when running only on their gas engines, these cars returned performance like an old VW Bug, and suggested a car with more room, more performance, and was thousands cheaper than its hybrid stablemate (the Insight), while providing real-life mileage only a few MPG below it, the Honda Fit.

I admire and encourage those hardy souls who are pioneers of an EC revolution but, unless I buy an electrical scooter for my epilectic daughter (and succeed in convincing the Secy of State that, under a ruling by the US Dept of Transport, said scooters under a specific wattage and speed were to be classified as bicycles) my next car (okay, I’m unemployed, would pay cash, and drive a car with 150K) will be IC.

Well, that and I’m a fat guy with a weakness for Grand Marquis.

14

As mentioned in the op the expected price for the Leaf is $25 to 30K.

And that question is the crux of the op. Comparing only within the class, how much is the relief of range anxiety beyond 100 miles worth to most purchasers?

One site put it like this:

(Put like that the Leaf won the unscientific poll there.)

15

The 400km range is for a double-battery-pack model. With single, it’d be 200km.
As for the rest of it, I don’t know - the car’s already built, I’m sure the numbers will be tested by outside agencies. It is basically made of composite, so that might explain the weight.

16

For those who haven’t yet seen it, here’s Better Place and their founder Shai Agassi talking about the future of EVs and it aint plug-in with multi-hour charges… think, 60 second recharge… (click the MP4 link for the full video, play video is only a 7 min excerpt)

17

Damn. Sorry I missed that. I did read the OP, honest. If it’s $25K for a limited-range Leaf or Focus EV vs. $40K for a Volt… tough call. I think a lot of middle- and upper-middle class buyers will still balk at $25K for a car they can’t use for long trips. But would those folks part with another $15K for a Volt, or just buy a high-mileage ICE or hybrid car? Dunno. My guess, supported only by what I would do, is that rather than spend the moeny on a Leaf or Focus EV, they’ll go “green enough” and buy a Prius for $25K or a diesel VW (when they finally return to the US).

18

Bayard, I know that you read the op :slight_smile: so please remember it did specify that it was asking how “the competition within the set will play out - assuming for the sake of discussion that gas prices are high enough to drive sales of EVs in general.”

19

Oh I know. This time it wasn’t that I missed something, it was that I wasn’t very clear in my little, poorly-reasoned point. Totally different thing.

OK, I still think the Volt gets the biggest share of the sales of those 4 cars. I see the Leaf and Focus EV competing not so much against the Volt as against other “green enough” cars, a competition the Leaf and Focus EV will lose. So, the Volt probably beats the Leaf and Focus EV because the people who are looking to spend 30K will go for other cars, and the people who can spend 40K and want green cred will go for the Volt. So, I don’t see much of a customer base for the Leaf and Focus EV. I don’t think gas proces alone will be high enough anytime soon to drive people away from unlimited range hybrids to limited-range BEVs, even if the BEV will pay for itself. The security of unlimited range still weighs heavily against BEVs, even if they are “worth it” in terms of gas savings. In the 4-car market you circumscribe, the Volt beats the Leaf and Focus EV. As I mentioned above, I think the Volt beats the BYD. So, the Volt wins the game.

Disclaimer: I am pulling this out of my ass. I did a research project on Tesla (I think they’re headed for doom, unfortunately), but I don’t know a lot about these other cars.

20

I don’t think the battery found in today’s hybrids can hold any significant charge. If you turned off the gas engine on the Prius and drove it only on stored battery power, I don’t think you’d get more than a mile.

They turn braking energy back into an acceleration assist when you start again - it’s a very short term system. So plugging them in to charge their batteries wouldn’t give you much.