Exit Polls...do they work

[BrotherCadfael]

I think at least one reason for the exit polls being off is that a bunch of people went into the booth supporting Kerry in theory, but when the chips were down, just not able to give him their vote. On exiting the booth, they were reluctant to admit as much to the pollsters – and, perhaps, themselves.

[Rashak_Mani]

I thought that exit polls and polls in general would help avoid fraud of bigger magnitude since in case of frauds… polls would be so different from actual voting results. If that is the case its sure worth checking things out.

That is one reason I thought it would be good to recount votes and count all votes in order to give less margin to conspiracy theories. Without a paper trail that is hard to do. I wouldn’t doubt fraud… especially in such a split vote and this electorate system. Just need more evidence of fraud than polls being off.

[BrainGlutton]

@xtisme

It IS a rant…and one we’ve been hearing here for months now. Hell, its a rant we’ve been hearing since the 2000 election if we take the electronic machines out of the picture…i.e. Republican voter fraud conspiricy.

And its the perfect rant too. No proof? No problem because there is no way to prove it…therefore there is no way to DISPROVE it either. The pink dragon is in my garage…and it flys!!

I can’t prove the electronic voting machines were tampered with in this election, but there is ample proof that it is possible to tamper with them, and without leaving a trail. See http://www.thenation.com/doc.mhtml?i=20040816&s=dugger; http://verifiedvoting.org/; http://notablesoftware.com/evote.html.

I repeat: The purpose of exit polls is to provide some independent check of the official vote tally. If the one result does not match the other, that should send up a red flag, and not about the exit polling process.

I am not being intellectually dishonest in bringing this up. And any intellectually honest meme which undermines the perceived legitimacy of this administration is worth propagating.

[BrainGlutton]

See also http://www.blackboxvoting.com/.

[annaplurabelle]

@BrainGlutton

See also http://www.blackboxvoting.com/.

BG, do you know anything about that site? Here is a disclaimer from Bev Harris at

http://www.blackboxvoting.org/

NOTE:
We are “.ORG.”
BlackBoxVoting".COM"
is a deceptively
designed site,
not affiliated
with Bev Harris,
nor with
Black Box Voting Inc.

[BrainGlutton]

@annaplurabelle

BG, do you know anything about that site? Here is a disclaimer from Bev Harris at

http://www.blackboxvoting.org/

Thanx for the heads-up. From the latter site, 11/4/04:

SEATTLE, WASHINGTON Nov 3 2004 – Did the voting machines trump exit polls? There’s a way to find out.

Black Box Voting (.ORG) is conducting the largest Freedom of Information action in history. At 8:30 p.m. Election Night, Black Box Voting blanketed the U.S. with the first in a series of public records requests, to obtain internal computer logs and other documents from 3,000 individual counties and townships. Networks called the election before anyone bothered to perform even the most rudimentary audit.

America: We have permission to say No to unaudited voting. It is our right.

Among the first requests sent to counties (with all kinds of voting systems – optical scan, touch-screen, and punch card) is a formal records request for internal audit logs, polling place results slips, modem transmission logs, and computer trouble slips.

An earlier FOIA is more sensitive, and has not been disclosed here. We will notify you as soon as we can go public with it.

Let’s wait and see what turns up.

[Cheesesteak]

@spoke-

I have a theory.

NBC is reporting that it was only the early exit poll that showed Kerry in the lead, and that the final exit polls at the end of the day accurately reflected the outcome.

This sounds feasable to me. I just looked at the exit polls on CNN.com and they appear to give Bush the win in both Florida and Ohio, with Bush getting 50% of the female vote and ~ 52-53% of the male vote. Isn’t that pretty darned close to the actual tally?

[esquimalt]

What were the final exit poll numbers for both states? Not the noon time ones but the final ones.

[Cheesesteak]

CNN’s exit poll data has Bush with 51.38% of the vote in FL and 50.94% in OH

[bup]

I think the only possible proof would involve showing discrepancies between exit polls and vote tallies, compared in jurisdictions with Diebolds and those eith other voting mechanisms.

Also compared to historical exit poll accuracy.

It’s rare, but court cases have been won with statistical anomalies consituting proof. One I recall was involved jury selection in (Alabama? Georgia?) being racial. The only proof they had was the percentage of blacks in the jury pools, versus the percentage on actual juries. They were able to show that the odds of it being random chance were 1 to billions.

[bup]

eith=with

[davidm]

BrainGlutton,
Something more from the blackboxvoting.org site. I don’t know if this was there when you posted or not.

THURSDAY Nov. 4 2004: If you are concerned about what happened Tuesday, Nov. 2, you have found a home with our organization. Help America Audit.

Black Box Voting has taken the position that fraud took place in the 2004 election through electronic voting machines. We base this on hard evidence, documents obtained in public records requests, inside information, and other data indicative of manipulation of electronic voting systems. What we do not know is the specific scope of the fraud. We are working now to compile the proof, based not on soft evidence – red flags, exit polls – but core documents obtained by Black Box Voting in the most massive Freedom of Information action in history.

We need: Lawyers to enforce public records laws. Some counties have already notified us that they plan to stonewall by delaying delivery of the records. We need citizen volunteers for a number of specific actions. We need computer security professionals willing to GO PUBLIC with formal opinions on the evidence we provide, whether or not it involves DMCA complications. We need funds to pay for copies of the evidence.

:eek: The bolding and italics were added by me. They are making a very bold statement and apparently are sure enough about what they have that they are willing to risk legal problems with DMCA.

[duality72]

As I posted here, it seems the final exit polls published on sites like CNN have been re-weighted to reflect the final outcome. The raw exit poll data is (probably) still off.

jshore: Not exactly what you wanted, but this is Florida 2004 results by county comparing actual and expected votes. And yes, it’s more grist for the fraud rumor mill.

[cichlidiot]

@spoke-

1. The people who were more likely to be lined up outside polling places early in the morning were Democrats, highly motivated and eager to oust Bush. Thus they showed up disproportionately in the early exit polls.

Michael Kinsley was on Tavis Smiley last night and said pretty much the same thing. It’s the explanation I’ve heard which makes the most sense.