Towards the end of last night’s Duke/Butler championship game, with Duke holding the ball and a slim lead with less than a minute to play, CBS announcer Clark Kellogg said several times that Duke would have to “trade two for one”. What does that mean, exactly?
He meant two possesions for one. If Duke pushed to score quickly Butler wouldn’t have time on the shot clock to hold the ball for the last shot. Thus Duke would get the ball back for the last possession.
Because of the shot clock, in a close game it’s a better idea strategically to shoot the ball with 38 seconds left than it is to shoot with, say, 32 seconds left, because the other team won’t be able to run the clock all the way down.
So if you’re up by 1 point, and there’s 50 seconds left, you might consider not running the shot clock all the way down before you shoot the ball, because if you miss and the other team gets the rebound, they’ve got it with 15 seconds left and can take the last shot, winning if they score. You’ve effectively done a one shot for one shot trade. If you shoot the ball with 41 seconds left, and miss, and the other team gets the rebound, you’re going to get the ball back as long as you don’t let them miss and get their own rebound. So shooting earlier forces a “two-for-one” trade in the sense that you get to try to score now, and also again after the other team’s possession. If you don’t take advantage of a two-for-one you give the other team the ability to control the outcome offensively.