For months, we have been bombarded with news about how awful the recent flu epidemic has been…thousands in hospital, people sick at work, yadda yadda, etc.
What I understand (about epidemics) is basically this:
-a new strain of flu emerges, to which people have no resistance
-the initially infected persons start coughing and sneezing, and the gems spread to uninfected persons
-the infection rate grows exponentially; eventually large numbers of people get sick
-finally, the rate of new cases starts declining, and people start recovering and becoming non-infectious
Have we reached the point where the flu is now in the decline phase? Does the epidemic end all of a sudden, when there are no more susceptible people left? Where does the strain go? Does it mutate while in the epidemic phase once again?
Finally, does it make any sense to get vaccinated once the epidemic is past the “growth” phase?